Feb. 12

Wyoming (3 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 29% Bush: 69% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 29%, Bush 69% Wisconsin (10 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 50% Bush: 49% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 50%, Bush 49% West Virginia (5 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 43% Bush: 56% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 43%, Bush 56% Washington (11 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 46% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 46% Virginia (13 EVs) Weak Republican Kerry: 45% Bush: 54% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 45%, Bush 54% Vermont (3 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 59% Bush: 39% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 59%, Bush 39% Vermont (3 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 59% Bush: 39% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 59%, Bush 39% Utah (5 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 26% Bush: 71% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 26%, Bush 71% Texas (34 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 38% Bush: 61% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 38%, Bush 61% Tennessee (11 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 43% Bush: 57% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 43%, Bush 57% South Dakota (3 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 38% Bush: 60% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 38%, Bush 60% South Carolina (8 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 41% Bush: 58% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 41%, Bush 58% Rhode Island (4 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 60% Bush: 39% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 60%, Bush 39% Rhode Island (4 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 60% Bush: 39% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 60%, Bush 39% Pennsylvania (21 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 51% Bush: 49% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 51%, Bush 49% Oregon (7 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 52% Bush: 48% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 52%, Bush 48% Oklahoma (7 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 34% Bush: 66% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 34%, Bush 66% Ohio (20 EVs) Barely Republican Kerry: 49% Bush: 51% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 49%, Bush 51% North Dakota (3 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 36% Bush: 63% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 36%, Bush 63% North Carolina (15 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 44% Bush: 56% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 44%, Bush 56% New York (31 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 58% Bush: 41% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 58%, Bush 41% New Mexico (5 EVs) Barely Republican Kerry: 49% Bush: 50% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 49%, Bush 50% New Jersey (15 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 47% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 47% New Jersey (15 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 47% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 47% New Hampshire (4 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 50% Bush: 49% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 50%, Bush 49% New Hampshire (4 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 50% Bush: 49% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 50%, Bush 49% Nevada (5 EVs) Barely Republican Kerry: 48% Bush: 51% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 48%, Bush 51% Nebraska (5 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 32% Bush: 67% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 32%, Bush 67% Montana (3 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 39% Bush: 59% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 39%, Bush 59% Missouri (11 EVs) Weak Republican Kerry: 46% Bush: 53% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 46%, Bush 53% Mississippi (6 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 40% Bush: 60% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 40%, Bush 60% Minnesota (10 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 51% Bush: 48% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 51%, Bush 48% Michigan (17 EVs) Barely Democrat Kerry: 51% Bush: 48% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 51%, Bush 48% Massachusetts (12 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 62% Bush: 37% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 62%, Bush 37% Massachusetts (12 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 62% Bush: 37% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 62%, Bush 37% Maryland (10 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 56% Bush: 43% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 56%, Bush 43% Maryland (10 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 56% Bush: 43% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 56%, Bush 43% Maine (4 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 45% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 45% Louisiana (9 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 42% Bush: 57% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 42%, Bush 57% Kentucky (8 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 40% Bush: 60% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 40%, Bush 60% Kansas (6 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 37% Bush: 62% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 37%, Bush 62% Iowa (7 EVs) Barely Republican Kerry: 49% Bush: 50% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 49%, Bush 50% Indiana (11 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 39% Bush: 60% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 39%, Bush 60% Illinois (21 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 55% Bush: 45% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 55%, Bush 45% Idaho (4 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 30% Bush: 69% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 30%, Bush 69% Hawaii (4 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 54% Bush: 45% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 54%, Bush 45% Georgia (15 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 41% Bush: 58% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 41%, Bush 58% Florida (27 EVs) Weak Republican Kerry: 47% Bush: 52% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 47%, Bush 52% Delaware (3 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 46% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 46% Delaware (3 EVs) Weak Democrat Kerry: 53% Bush: 46% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 53%, Bush 46% D.C. (3 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 90% Bush: 9% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 90%, Bush 9% D.C. (3 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 90% Bush: 9% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 90%, Bush 9% Connecticut (7 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 54% Bush: 44% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 54%, Bush 44% Connecticut (7 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 54% Bush: 44% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 54%, Bush 44% Colorado (9 EVs) Weak Republican Kerry: 47% Bush: 52% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 47%, Bush 52% California (55 EVs) Strong Democrat Kerry: 55% Bush: 44% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 55%, Bush 44% Arkansas (6 EVs) Weak Republican Kerry: 45% Bush: 54% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 45%, Bush 54% Arizona (10 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 45% Bush: 55% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 45%, Bush 55% Alaska (3 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 35% Bush: 62% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 35%, Bush 62% Alabama (9 EVs) Strong Republican Kerry: 37% Bush: 63% Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01) 2004: Kerry: 37%, Bush 63%

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Presidential polls today:	(None)
Dem pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)
GOP pickups (vs. 2004):	(None)

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News from the Votemaster

The Hill reports that Sen. Tim Johnson, who suffered a cerebral hemorrhage last December, is making a slow but gradual recovery. Johnson squeaked to victory in the Senate in 2002 by a mere 524 votes and is one of the Republicans' top two targets for 2008 (along with Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)). Of course, being able to speak and read the newspaper is not the same as engaging in a brutal reelection campaign. Johnson was also treated for prostate cancer in 2004 and was given a clean bill of health afterwards.

It is expected that Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), chairman of the NRSC, will move heaven and earth to get South Dakota's popular Republican governor, Mike Rounds, to run for the Senate in 2008. Rounds got 62% of the vote in his re-election bid in 2006. Against such a strong opponent in a state that went for Bush by 34% in 2006 and with such a tiny victory in 2002 and less than perfect health, Johnson might decline to run in 2008.

If Johnson should decide to leave politics and concentrate on getting his health back, you can bet that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the DSCC, will be camped out at the door of Rep. Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota's at-large congresswoman, pleading with her to run for the Senate. (Of course, Schumer will have to fend off Herseth's fiance, former Rep. Max Sandlin (D-TX), for face time with the congresswoman.) Herseth, the youngest woman in the House, granddaughter of a former South Dakota governor and daughter of a former South Dakota state senator, won re-election to the U.S. House with over 70% of the vote in Nov. 2006. A Rounds-Herseth race would pit two electoral giants against each other in this vast but underpopulated state and money would flow into the state as if the Mississippi River were flooding. Here are photos of the three players.

Tim Johnson	Mike Rounds	Stephanie Herseth

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

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