Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

Aug. 24

Kerry 252 Bush 286

Senate: Dem 51 GOP 49

House: Dem 233 GOP 202

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News from the Votemaster

Not too many polls during the dog days of August and not much movement in the few new ones either, except Zogby has a poll showing Hillary leading in Iowa now. She leads pretty much everywhere now. The Republican side is much more fluid, with Giuliani leading in many states, but Romney ahead in a few and also Thompson leading here and there. When Thompson formally enters in a week or two, he might shake things up.

Michigan is trying to move its primary up to January 15, in which case Iowa and New Hamphire will move theirs up, too. If Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan all vote before superduper Tuesday (Feb 5) those results could hugely influence the Feb. 5 results.

At the moment, the most likely race is Clinton-Giuliani. What would happen in such a race? Chris Bowers has gone through the state polls and produced a map showing the electoral vote in this race. Conclusion: Clinton wins 335 to 203. But I wouldn't take it too seriously at this point. Still, it suggests that Clinton would beat Giuliani in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and four smaller states. The only blue state Giuliani takes is Connecticut.

In case you missed the news, Rick Renzi (R AZ-01 ) is retiring at the end of this session of Congress. He is swamped by scandals, so getting him off the ticket is good news for Republicans. The bad news is that AZ-01 is a swing district and the Democrats picked up two Arizona House seats in 2006, so this one will be bitterly contested.

Two potentially momentous retirements are those of John Warner (R-VA) and Chuck Hagel (R-NE). If Warner retires, former governor Mark Warner (D) becomes the instant favorite and Virginia could greet 2009 with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. If Hagel retires, former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) may run. Although Nebraska is a deep red state, Kerrey, a Vietnam hero, has won statewide election there three times, once for governor and twice for senator. The state's other senator, Ben Nelson, is also a Democrat, so a Kerrey run for an open seat would instantly be a top-tier race.

Here are the current polls.

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Alabama	ARG	Aug. 2	38%	19%	17%	26%	16%	3%	31%
Alabama	Capital Survey	July 19	33%	29%	9%	20%	11%	5%	34%
Alabama	Capital Survey	May 1	37%	21%	9%	29%	23%	7%
Alabama	U. of South Alabama	Apr. 19	33%	25%	12%	28%	23%	3%
Alabama	Capital Survey	Mar. 6	35%	19%	9%	28%	23%	3%
Alabama	ARG	Feb. 13	44%	13%	11%	31%	19%	3%
Alabama	Capital Survey	Jan. 17	27%	14%	19%	20%	24%	3%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Arizona	ARG	July 26	39%	25%	8%	23%	32%	7%	15%
Arizona	Rocky Mtn Poll	May 29	26%	22%	7%	20%	35%	7%
Arizona	Arizona State U.	Apr. 22	25%	20%	18%	27%	32%	11%
Arizona	Rocky Mtn Poll	Mar. 21	27%	20%	9%	25%	34%	11%
Arizona	Arizona State U.	Feb. 25	28%	24%	14%	25%	44%	6%
Arizona	ARG	Feb. 13	33%	24%	13%	21%	45%	2%
Arizona	Rocky Mtn Poll	Jan. 22	32%	15%	18%	13%	40%	11%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Arkansas	ARG	Mar. 19	49%	16%	12%	12%	21%	4%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
California	Field Poll	Aug. 12	35%	22%	16%	35%	9%	14%	13%
California	ARG	Aug. 2	35%	22%	16%	30%	7%	18%	18%
California	Public Policy Inst.	June 19	41%	25%	12%	31%	16%	13%	13%
California	ARG	May 8	37%	28%	15%	27%	24%	11%
California	Field Poll	Mar. 31	41%	28%	13%	36%	24%	7%
California	SurveyUSA	Mar. 6	44%	31%	10%	41%	23%	8%
California	Datamar	Feb. 15	34%	24%	16%	41%	17%	11%
California	ARG	Jan. 17	36%	33%	6%	33%	18%	3%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Colorado	ARG	July 18	39%	22%	10%	35%	11%	9%	20%
Colorado	ARG	Apr. 2	34%	23%	17%	25%	23%	9%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Connecticut	Quinnipiac U.	May 7	28%	20%	8%	36%	15%	9%
Connecticut	Quinnipiac U.	Feb. 12	33%	21%	5%	43%	27%	4%
Connecticut	ARG	Feb. 6	40%	8%	10%	32%	21%	14%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Delaware	Fairleigh Dickinson U.	Feb. 25	34%	19%	10%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	Aug. 6	43%	13%	8%	26%	11%	9%	19%
Florida	Mason-Dixon	July 26	31%	17%	12%	21%	11%	7%	18%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	July 16	36%	14%	9%	30%	10%	9%	18%
Florida	ARG	July 15	45%	25%	9%	33%	7%	12%	27%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	June 25	43%	16%	11%	29%	13%	9%	29%
Florida	Zogby	June 6	36%	16%	11%	31%	12%	12%	10%
Florida	Schroth/Polling Co.	May 9	42%	19%	12%	29%	15%	14%
Florida	ARG	May 8	45%	17%	15%	31%	18%	11%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	Apr. 24	36%	13%	11%	38%	15%	7%
Florida	U. of North Florida	Apr. 13	35%	20%	9%	31%	14%	6%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 27	36%	13%	11%	35%	15%	5%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 4	38%	13%	6%	38%	18%	6%
Florida	Quinnipiac U.	Feb. 4	49%	13%	7%	29%	23%	6%
Florida	ARG	Jan. 9	30%	14%	15%	30%	15%	2%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Georgia	ARG	Aug. 6	35%	25%	17%	20%	7%	14%	27%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Idaho	Greg Smith	July 13	31%	33%	15%	20%	14%	38%	18%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Illinois	ARG	July 9	33%	37%	10%	30%	12%	11%	21%
Illinois	ARG	Jan. 14	30%	36%	5%	33%	24%	12%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Iowa	Zogby	Aug. 18	30%	19%	23%	14%	6%	33%	12%
Iowa	U. of Iowa	Aug. 5	25%	19%	26%	11%	3%	28%	8%
Iowa	Selzer	July 31	26%	26%	27%	14%	26%	8%	13%
Iowa	ARG	July 30	30%	15%	21%	22%	17%	21%	13%
Iowa	Research 2000	July 25	22%	16%	27%	13%	10%	25%	14%
Iowa	ARG	June 30	32%	13%	29%	18%	13%	25%	14%
Iowa	Mason-Dixon	June 16	22%	18%	21%	15%	6%	25%	17%
Iowa	Selzer	May 16	21%	23%	29%	17%	18%	30%
Iowa	Research 2000	May 15	28%	22%	26%	17%	18%	16%
Iowa	Zogby	May 15	24%	22%	26%	16%	18%	17%
Iowa	ARG	Apr. 30	23%	19%	27%	19%	26%	14%
Iowa	U. of Iowa	Mar. 31	28%	19%	34%	21%	20%	17%
Iowa	Zogby	Mar. 26	25%	23%	27%	25%	19%	11%
Iowa	ARG	Mar. 23	34%	16%	33%	29%	29%	10%
Iowa	Zogby	Feb. 9	24%	24%	18%	19%	17%	5%
Iowa	Zogby	Jan. 16	16%	27%	17%	19%	17%	5%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Kansas	Research 2000	May 23	27%	22%	21%	13%	13%	17%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Maine	Critical Insights	Apr. 27	39%	22%	16%	24%	21%	12%
Maine	ARG	Feb. 6	41%	14%	17%	33%	22%	13%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Massachusetts	Suffolk U.	Apr. 15	32%	18%	19%
Massachusetts	ARG	Feb. 6	35%	24%	19%	29%	30%	7%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	Aug. 13	45%	26%	16%	19%	16%	12%	22%
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	June 13	38%	25%	14%	19%	22%	24%	8%
Michigan	ARG	May 7	38%	25%	14%	19%	22%	24%
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	Mar. 18	45%	29%	16%	26%	30%	21%
Michigan	ARG	Mar. 4	35%	30%	14%	30%	35%
Michigan	EPIC/MRA	Feb. 4	49%	20%	8%	32%	28%	8%
Michigan	ARG	Jan. 7	30%	30%	17%	34%	24%	10%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Missouri	ARG	Aug. 6	40%	15%	22%	23%	14%	11%	22%
Missouri	ARG	Jan. 9	30%	18%	17%	18%	31%	2%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Nevada	Mason-Dixon	June 22	39%	17%	12%	17%	8%	20%	25%
Nevada	ARG	June 19	40%	16%	16%	21%	16%	23%	16%
Nevada	Mason-Dixon	May 1	37%	12%	13%	12%	19%	15%
Nevada	Zogby	Apr. 12	35%	21%	15%	37%	15%	15%
Nevada	Research 2000	Mar. 8	32%	20%	11%	38%	18%	4%
Nevada	Research 2000	Feb. 2	1900%	33%	19%	15%	18%	8%	28%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
New Hampshire	ARG	July 30	31%	31%	14%	27%	10%	26%	13%
New Hampshire	Hart/McLaughlin	July 26	36%	19%	15%	17%	16%	33%	13%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	July 17	36%	27%	9%	20%	12%	34%	13%
New Hampshire	Research 2000	July 11	33%	25%	15%	21%	18%	28%	11%
New Hampshire	ARG	June 30	34%	25%	11%	19%	21%	27%	10%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	June 24	37%	19%	9%	22%	13%	26%	13%
New Hampshire	Mason-Dixon	June 7	26%	21%	18%	15%	16%	27%	12%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	June 6	41%	17%	15%	18%	17%	27%	9%
New Hampshire	Zogby	May 16	28%	26%	15%	19%	19%	35%
New Hampshire	ARG	Apr. 29	37%	14%	26%	17%	29%	24%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Apr. 3	29%	23%	23%	19%	25%	25%
New Hampshire	U. of New Hampshire	Apr. 3	27%	20%	21%	29%	29%	17%
New Hampshire	ARG	Mar. 23	37%	23%	20%	19%	23%	17%
New Hampshire	Franklin Pierce Coll.	Mar. 12	32%	25%	16%	28%	29%	22%
New Hampshire	Suffolk U.	Feb. 28	28%	26%	17%	37%	27%	17%
New Hampshire	Zogby/UNH	Feb. 8	27%	23%	13%	27%	28%	13%
New Hampshire	Zogby	Jan. 17	19%	19%	23%	20%	26%	13%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
New Jersey	Rutgers/Eagleton	Aug. 7	45%	21%	16%	61%	10%	5%	8%
New Jersey	Quinnipiac U.	July 2	46%	19%	8%	48%	12%	7%	10%
New Jersey	Monmouth U.	Apr. 16	41%	22%	13%	49%	19%	6%
New Jersey	Quinnipiac U.	Apr. 16	38%	16%	9%	49%	18%	6%
New Jersey	Fairleigh Dickinson U.	Mar. 4	46%	18%	10%	59%	20%	6%
New Jersey	Quinnipiac U.	Feb. 25	41%	19%	5%	58%	15%	2%
New Jersey	Quinnipiac U.	Jan. 22	30%	8%	16%	39%	21%	5%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
New Mexico	ARG	Jan. 13	22%	17%	12%	38%	20%	7%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
New York	Siena Coll.	July 28	48%	14%	7%	40%	13%	7%	11%
New York	Quinnipiac U.	June 17	44%	14%	6%	46%	8%	3%	14%
New York	Siena Coll.	Apr. 20	39%	17%	11%	47%	16%	8%
New York	Blum+Weprin	Apr. 7	49%	17%	11%	56%	15%	5%
New York	ARG	Apr. 2	41%	20%	16%	50%	14%	7%
New York	Quinnipiac U.	Apr. 2	44%	14%	9%	52%	13%	6%
New York	Siena Coll.	Mar. 22	43%	11%	7%	31%	20%	6%
New York	Quinnipiac U.	Feb. 11	47%	16%	7%	51%	17%	1%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
North Carolina	Elon U.	Apr. 19	20%	20%	26%	32%	22%	10%
North Carolina	ARG	Jan. 15	26%	19%	30%	34%	26%	2%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	Aug. 6	41%	16%	11%	29%	11%	8%	11%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	July 9	35%	17%	13%	24%	14%	8%	18%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	June 25	46%	14%	15%	26%	16%	8%	18%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	May 13	38%	19%	11%	23%	17%	11%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	Apr. 24	37%	14%	17%	23%	21%	6%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 19	32%	22%	11%	31%	20%	6%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 4	32%	19%	13%	35%	18%	3%
Ohio	U. of Akron	Feb. 21	42%	16%	17%	36%	28%	6%
Ohio	Quinnipiac U.	Jan. 28	38%	11%	13%	30%	22%	4%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Oklahoma	Sooner	Apr. 30	29%	13%	29%	32%	23%	6%
Oklahoma	ARG	Feb. 13	40%	15%	16%	37%	21%	2%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Oregon	Riley Research	Aug. 15	26%	18%	17%	16%	8%	15%	11%
Oregon	Riley Research	Mar. 13	31%	21%	8%	33%	20%	5%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Aug. 20	42%	12%	8%	31%	13%	7%	8%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Aug. 6	35%	19%	10%	29%	16%	3%	14%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	June 25	38%	22%	10%	29%	16%	4%	15%
Pennsylvania	Franklin and Marshall	June 4	40%	18%	21%	29%	29%	12%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Apr. 24	36%	14%	13%	29%	17%	5%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 25	36%	17%	9%	33%	18%	5%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Mar. 4	29%	18%	11%	43%	17%	6%
Pennsylvania	Susquehanna	Feb. 20	42%	16%	11%	37%	29%	6%
Pennsylvania	Quinnipiac U.	Feb. 5	37%	11%	11%	30%	20%	4%
Pennsylvania	ARG	Jan. 8	32%	12%	13%	35%	25%	1%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Rhode Island	Brown U.	Jan. 27	33%	8%	15%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
South Carolina	ARG	July 30	29%	33%	18%	28%	10%	7%	27%
South Carolina	Opinion Research	July 18	27%	27%	17%	30%	21%	6%	18%
South Carolina	ARG	June 30	37%	22%	21%	22%	23%	8%	19%
South Carolina	Mason-Dixon	June 15	25%	34%	12%	21%	7%	11%	25%
South Carolina	Winthrop U.	May 27	29%	21%	11%	19%	14%	12%	6%
South Carolina	ARG	Apr. 30	36%	24%	18%	23%	36%	6%
South Carolina	Hamilton/McHenry	Apr. 19	31%	27%	16%	15%	24%	10%
South Carolina	Zogby	Apr. 17	33%	26%	21%	19%	22%	10%
South Carolina	ARG	Feb. 27	36%	25%	20%	29%	35%	5%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Texas	U. of Texas	May 7	33%	21%	8%	23%	27%	6%	11%
Texas	ARG	Mar. 19	34%	32%	11%	30%	20%	13%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Utah	ARG	Feb. 13	31%	18%	9%	13%	21%	40%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Vermont	ARG	Feb. 6	37%	19%	14%	29%	30%	7%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
West Virginia	ARG	Apr. 2	37%	22%	19%	29%	33%	8%

State	Pollster	End date	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Giuliani	McCain	Romney	Thompson
Wisconsin	St. Norbert Coll.	Apr. 17	33%	30%	18%	26%	24%	9%

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races: President Senate House

This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.

-- The Votemaster