Aug. 17 absentee ballot for overseas voters

Kerry 252   Bush 286  
Senate: Dem 51   GOP 49  
House: Dem 233   GOP 202  

 
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strong Dem Strong Dem (146)
weak Dem Weak Dem (37)
barely Dem Barely Dem (69)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (37)
weak GOP Weak GOP (66)
strong GOP Strong GOP (183)
  Map algorithm explained
Presidential polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  
GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None)  


News from the Votemaster

While it is quiet on the presidential front, the pot is really boiling in the House. And it is nearly entirely Republicans who are being cooked. Between scandals and retirements, many GOP House seats are going to be unexpectedly in play in 2008, greatly reducing the chances the Republicans can pick up the net 16 seats they need to wrest the gavel from Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). The 2008 election could easily be a replay of 2006, with the Democrats picking up another 20+ seats. Here are some of the new developments, but for a discussion of all the top races see our Hot House Races page, which is updated whenever there are new developments.

In the past week, three long-term Republican House members have announced their retirement. These are Deborah Pryce ( OH-15 ), Dennis Hastert (IL-16), and Chip Pickering (MS-03). Pryce is the #4 person in the House leadership and won her 2006 by barely 1000 votes against a relatively unknown county commissioner, Mary Jo Kilroy. Well, Kilroy has announced she is trying again, and with much better name recognition and a much weaker opponent, she has at least an even chance to pick up this seat.

Hastert used to be Speaker, of course, but was forced out of the leadership by all the scandals in the 109th Congress. While his district leans Republican, in 2006 the Democrats picked up three House seats in neighboring Indiana that were much redder than his. So far, nobody has announced for Hastert's seat.

Chip Pickering (MS-03) comes from a deeply Republican district. There is likely to be a primary fight there, because whoever wins the primary is sure to be elected to Congress.

Two other Republicans who previous announced retirements are Ray LaHood (IL-18) and Duncan Hunter (CA-52). These districts have PVIs of R+5.5 and R+9.3, so with a decent candidate, the Republicans should be able to hold them.

All eyes are now on Ralph Regula (R OH-16), who may well decide to call it quits after 18 terms. He would be 86 at the end of a 19th term. Regula has been in the House so long and is so popular personally that no one knows what would happen with an open seat. What is known is that Regula almost always way outperforms the Republican presidential nominee--in effect, the presidential candidate gets a free ride on the congressman's coattails. His retirement could conceivably cost the Republican presidential nominee thousands of votes in crucial Ohio.

Another potential retiree everyone is holding his breath about is Sen. John Warner (R-VA), but see the Senate page for that story.

While not an announced retiree, Jo Ann Davis (R VA-01) was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2005 and had a mastectomy. Her cancer has returned and she is now undergoing treatment. She also underwent urinary tract surgery in February and has missed 85% of the votes in the House this year. If health issues force her to retire, her eastern Virginia district will be in play.

Corruption is also going to be an issue in numerous House races. On the Democratic side, Dollar Bill Jefferson (the Louisiana congressman who had $90,000 neatly wrapped in his freezer) is still under indictment, but two weeks ago a judge ruled that the FBI's search was illegal, so the government's case is appreciably weakened and in LA-02 (New Orleans), which is heavily Democratic, he might survive.

Three Republican congressmen are under investigation for corruption as well. Rick Renzi ( AZ-01 ) and John Doolittle ( CA-04 ) were forced off their committee assignments already. Don Young (AK-AL), who has been in Congress since before there were polar bears in Alaska, is being investigated for taking bribes. This scandal is rapidly expanding and could take down both Young and Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) as well. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the DCCC, is trying to recruit Anchorage mayor Mark Begich to challenge Young. Young won the seat after the incumbent congressman, Nick Begich (Mark's father) disappeared after a plane crash while campaigning. The major problem Van Hollen is facing is Chuck Schumer, chairman of the DSCC, who wants Begich to challenge Stevens. No matter who wins this fight (and I am betting on Schumer), Young's future looks iffy.

All in all, the House races are definitely heating up. For more on possible retirements, see the Swing State Project.

Now for the presidential race. Here are 16 new polls. What do they show? Hillary is gaining everywhere and has commanding leads in almost every state. Even in Iowa she is playing catch up.

The Republican race is more exciting. Noncandidate Fred Thompson is actually ahead in three states now: Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan, and within the margin of error in four more: Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. When he announces in about 2 weeks, he'll probably get a bump. Meanwhile, Giuliani is still ahead in most states, but his lead is far more tenuous than Hillary's. McCain is in the toilet. His position on immigration is just anathema to too much of the Republican base. Romney may get a lift from his win in the Ames straw poll, but since nobody else was running, it may not be much. At the moment, it looks like a two-way race between Giuliani and Thompson, but that could easily change.

State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Alabama ARG Aug. 2 38% 19% 17% 26% 16% 3% 31%
Alabama Capital Survey July 19 33% 29% 9% 20% 11% 5% 34%
Alabama Capital Survey May 1 37% 21% 9% 29% 23% 7%  
Alabama U. of South Alabama Apr. 19 33% 25% 12% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Mar. 6 35% 19% 9% 28% 23% 3%  
Alabama ARG Feb. 13 44% 13% 11% 31% 19% 3%  
Alabama Capital Survey Jan. 17 27% 14% 19% 20% 24% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arizona ARG July 26 39% 25% 8% 23% 32% 7% 15%
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll May 29 26% 22% 7% 20% 35% 7%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Apr. 22 25% 20% 18% 27% 32% 11%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Mar. 21 27% 20% 9% 25% 34% 11%  
Arizona Arizona State U. Feb. 25 28% 24% 14% 25% 44% 6%  
Arizona ARG Feb. 13 33% 24% 13% 21% 45% 2%  
Arizona Rocky Mtn Poll Jan. 22 32% 15% 18% 13% 40% 11%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Arkansas ARG Mar. 19 49% 16% 12% 12% 21% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
California Field Poll Aug. 12 35% 22% 16% 35% 9% 14% 13%
California ARG Aug. 2 35% 22% 16% 30% 7% 18% 18%
California Public Policy Inst. June 19 41% 25% 12% 31% 16% 13% 13%
California ARG May 8 37% 28% 15% 27% 24% 11%  
California Field Poll Mar. 31 41% 28% 13% 36% 24% 7%  
California SurveyUSA Mar. 6 44% 31% 10% 41% 23% 8%  
California Datamar Feb. 15 34% 24% 16% 41% 17% 11%  
California ARG Jan. 17 36% 33% 6% 33% 18% 3%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Colorado ARG July 18 39% 22% 10% 35% 11% 9% 20%
Colorado ARG Apr. 2 34% 23% 17% 25% 23% 9%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. May 7 28% 20% 8% 36% 15% 9%  
Connecticut Quinnipiac U. Feb. 12 33% 21% 5% 43% 27% 4%  
Connecticut ARG Feb. 6 40% 8% 10% 32% 21% 14%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Delaware Fairleigh Dickinson U. Feb. 25 34% 19% 10%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Florida Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 43% 13% 8% 26% 11% 9% 19%
Florida Mason-Dixon July 26 31% 17% 12% 21% 11% 7% 18%
Florida Quinnipiac U. July 16 36% 14% 9% 30% 10% 9% 18%
Florida ARG July 15 45% 25% 9% 33% 7% 12% 27%
Florida Quinnipiac U. June 25 43% 16% 11% 29% 13% 9% 29%
Florida Zogby June 6 36% 16% 11% 31% 12% 12% 10%
Florida Schroth/Polling Co. May 9 42% 19% 12% 29% 15% 14%  
Florida ARG May 8 45% 17% 15% 31% 18% 11%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 13% 11% 38% 15% 7%  
Florida U. of North Florida Apr. 13 35% 20% 9% 31% 14% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 27 36% 13% 11% 35% 15% 5%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 38% 13% 6% 38% 18% 6%  
Florida Quinnipiac U. Feb. 4 49% 13% 7% 29% 23% 6%  
Florida ARG Jan. 9 30% 14% 15% 30% 15% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Georgia ARG Aug. 6 35% 25% 17% 20% 7% 14% 27%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Idaho Greg Smith July 13 31% 33% 15% 20% 14% 38% 18%
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Illinois ARG July 9 33% 37% 10% 30% 12% 11% 21%
Illinois ARG Jan. 14 30% 36% 5% 33% 24% 12%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Iowa U. of Iowa Aug. 5 25% 19% 26% 11% 3% 28% 8%
Iowa Selzer July 31 26% 26% 27% 14% 26% 8% 13%
Iowa ARG July 30 30% 15% 21% 22% 17% 21% 13%
Iowa Research 2000 July 25 22% 16% 27% 13% 10% 25% 14%
Iowa ARG June 30 32% 13% 29% 18% 13% 25% 14%
Iowa Mason-Dixon June 16 22% 18% 21% 15% 6% 25% 17%
Iowa Selzer May 16 21% 23% 29% 17% 18% 30%  
Iowa Research 2000 May 15 28% 22% 26% 17% 18% 16%  
Iowa Zogby May 15 24% 22% 26% 16% 18% 17%  
Iowa ARG Apr. 30 23% 19% 27% 19% 26% 14%  
Iowa U. of Iowa Mar. 31 28% 19% 34% 21% 20% 17%  
Iowa Zogby Mar. 26 25% 23% 27% 25% 19% 11%  
Iowa ARG Mar. 23 34% 16% 33% 29% 29% 10%  
Iowa Zogby Feb. 9 24% 24% 18% 19% 17% 5%  
Iowa Zogby Jan. 16 16% 27% 17% 19% 17% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Kansas Research 2000 May 23 27% 22% 21% 13% 13% 17%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Maine Critical Insights Apr. 27 39% 22% 16% 24% 21% 12%  
Maine ARG Feb. 6 41% 14% 17% 33% 22% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Massachusetts Suffolk U. Apr. 15 32% 18% 19%        
Massachusetts ARG Feb. 6 35% 24% 19% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Michigan EPIC/MRA Aug. 13 45% 26% 16% 19% 16% 12% 22%
Michigan EPIC/MRA June 13 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24% 8%
Michigan ARG May 7 38% 25% 14% 19% 22% 24%  
Michigan EPIC/MRA Mar. 18 45% 29% 16% 26% 30% 21%  
Michigan ARG Mar. 4 35% 30% 14% 30% 35%    
Michigan EPIC/MRA Feb. 4 49% 20% 8% 32% 28% 8%  
Michigan ARG Jan. 7 30% 30% 17% 34% 24% 10%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Missouri ARG Aug. 6 40% 15% 22% 23% 14% 11% 22%
Missouri ARG Jan. 9 30% 18% 17% 18% 31% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Nevada Mason-Dixon June 22 39% 17% 12% 17% 8% 20% 25%
Nevada ARG June 19 40% 16% 16% 21% 16% 23% 16%
Nevada Mason-Dixon May 1 37% 12% 13% 12% 19% 15%  
Nevada Zogby Apr. 12 35% 21% 15% 37% 15% 15%  
Nevada Research 2000 Mar. 8 32% 20% 11% 38% 18% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Hampshire ARG July 30 31% 31% 14% 27% 10% 26% 13%
New Hampshire Hart/McLaughlin July 26 36% 19% 15% 17% 16% 33% 13%
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire July 17 36% 27% 9% 20% 12% 34% 13%
New Hampshire Research 2000 July 11 33% 25% 15% 21% 18% 28% 11%
New Hampshire ARG June 30 34% 25% 11% 19% 21% 27% 10%
New Hampshire Suffolk U. June 24 37% 19% 9% 22% 13% 26% 13%
New Hampshire Mason-Dixon June 7 26% 21% 18% 15% 16% 27% 12%
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. June 6 41% 17% 15% 18% 17% 27% 9%
New Hampshire Zogby May 16 28% 26% 15% 19% 19% 35%  
New Hampshire ARG Apr. 29 37% 14% 26% 17% 29% 24%  
New Hampshire Zogby Apr. 3 29% 23% 23% 19% 25% 25%  
New Hampshire U. of New Hampshire Apr. 3 27% 20% 21% 29% 29% 17%  
New Hampshire ARG Mar. 23 37% 23% 20% 19% 23% 17%  
New Hampshire Franklin Pierce Coll. Mar. 12 32% 25% 16% 28% 29% 22%  
New Hampshire Suffolk U. Feb. 28 28% 26% 17% 37% 27% 17%  
New Hampshire Zogby/UNH Feb. 8 27% 23% 13% 27% 28% 13%  
New Hampshire Zogby Jan. 17 19% 19% 23% 20% 26% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Jersey Rutgers/Eagleton Aug. 7 45% 21% 16% 61% 10% 5% 8%
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. July 2 46% 19% 8% 48% 12% 7% 10%
New Jersey Monmouth U. Apr. 16 41% 22% 13% 49% 19% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Apr. 16 38% 16% 9% 49% 18% 6%  
New Jersey Fairleigh Dickinson U. Mar. 4 46% 18% 10% 59% 20% 6%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Feb. 25 41% 19% 5% 58% 15% 2%  
New Jersey Quinnipiac U. Jan. 22 30% 8% 16% 39% 21% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New Mexico ARG Jan. 13 22% 17% 12% 38% 20% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
New York Siena Coll. July 28 48% 14% 7% 40% 13% 7% 11%
New York Quinnipiac U. June 17 44% 14% 6% 46% 8% 3% 14%
New York Siena Coll. Apr. 20 39% 17% 11% 47% 16% 8%  
New York Blum+Weprin Apr. 7 49% 17% 11% 56% 15% 5%  
New York ARG Apr. 2 41% 20% 16% 50% 14% 7%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Apr. 2 44% 14% 9% 52% 13% 6%  
New York Siena Coll. Mar. 22 43% 11% 7% 31% 20% 6%  
New York Quinnipiac U. Feb. 11 47% 16% 7% 51% 17% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
North Carolina Elon U. Apr. 19 20% 20% 26% 32% 22% 10%  
North Carolina ARG Jan. 15 26% 19% 30% 34% 26% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 41% 16% 11% 29% 11% 8% 11%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. July 9 35% 17% 13% 24% 14% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. June 25 46% 14% 15% 26% 16% 8% 18%
Ohio Quinnipiac U. May 13 38% 19% 11% 23% 17% 11%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 37% 14% 17% 23% 21% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 19 32% 22% 11% 31% 20% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 32% 19% 13% 35% 18% 3%  
Ohio U. of Akron Feb. 21 42% 16% 17% 36% 28% 6%  
Ohio Quinnipiac U. Jan. 28 38% 11% 13% 30% 22% 4%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oklahoma Sooner Apr. 30 29% 13% 29% 32% 23% 6%  
Oklahoma ARG Feb. 13 40% 15% 16% 37% 21% 2%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Oregon Riley Research Mar. 13 31% 21% 8% 33% 20% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Aug. 6 35% 19% 10% 29% 16% 3% 14%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. June 25 38% 22% 10% 29% 16% 4% 15%
Pennsylvania Franklin and Marshall June 4 40% 18% 21% 29% 29% 12%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 24 36% 14% 13% 29% 17% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 25 36% 17% 9% 33% 18% 5%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Mar. 4 29% 18% 11% 43% 17% 6%  
Pennsylvania Susquehanna Feb. 20 42% 16% 11% 37% 29% 6%  
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Feb. 5 37% 11% 11% 30% 20% 4%  
Pennsylvania ARG Jan. 8 32% 12% 13% 35% 25% 1%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Rhode Island Brown U. Jan. 27 33% 8% 15%        
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
South Carolina ARG July 30 29% 33% 18% 28% 10% 7% 27%
South Carolina Opinion Research July 18 27% 27% 17% 30% 21% 6% 18%
South Carolina ARG June 30 37% 22% 21% 22% 23% 8% 19%
South Carolina Mason-Dixon June 15 25% 34% 12% 21% 7% 11% 25%
South Carolina Winthrop U. May 27 29% 21% 11% 19% 14% 12% 6%
South Carolina ARG Apr. 30 36% 24% 18% 23% 36% 6%  
South Carolina Hamilton/McHenry Apr. 19 31% 27% 16% 15% 24% 10%  
South Carolina Zogby Apr. 17 33% 26% 21% 19% 22% 10%  
South Carolina ARG Feb. 27 36% 25% 20% 29% 35% 5%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Texas U. of Texas May 7 33% 21% 8% 23% 27% 6% 11%
Texas ARG Mar. 19 34% 32% 11% 30% 20% 13%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Utah ARG Feb. 13 31% 18% 9% 13% 21% 40%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Vermont ARG Feb. 6 37% 19% 14% 29% 30% 7%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
West Virginia ARG Apr. 2 37% 22% 19% 29% 33% 8%  
 
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama Edwards Giuliani McCain Romney Thompson
Wisconsin St. Norbert Coll. Apr. 17 33% 30% 18% 26% 24% 9%  

This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when there is interesting news about the 2008 races.

Preview of the 2008 races:           President       Senate       House      

This map shows the current governors. Put your mouse on a state for more information.




This map shows the current Senate. Put your mouse on a state for more information.




This map shows the current House. Put your mouse on a state for more information.



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