While it is quiet on the presidential front, the pot is really boiling in the House.
And it is nearly entirely Republicans who are being cooked. Between scandals and
retirements, many GOP House seats are going to be unexpectedly in play in 2008,
greatly reducing the chances the Republicans can pick up the net 16 seats they need
to wrest the gavel from Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). The 2008 election could
easily be a replay of 2006, with the Democrats picking up another 20+ seats.
Here are some of the new developments, but for a discussion of all the top races see
our Hot House Races page,
which is updated whenever there are new developments.
In the past week, three long-term Republican House members have announced their retirement.
These are Deborah Pryce ( OH-15 ), Dennis Hastert (IL-16), and Chip Pickering (MS-03).
Pryce is the #4 person in the House leadership and won her 2006 by barely 1000 votes against
a relatively unknown county commissioner, Mary Jo Kilroy. Well, Kilroy has announced she
is trying again, and with much better name recognition and a much weaker opponent, she has
at least an even chance to pick up this seat.
Hastert used to be Speaker, of course, but
was forced out of the leadership by all the scandals in the 109th Congress. While his district
leans Republican, in 2006 the Democrats picked up three House seats in neighboring Indiana
that were much redder than his. So far, nobody has announced for Hastert's seat.
Chip Pickering (MS-03) comes from a deeply Republican district. There is likely to be a
primary fight there, because whoever wins the primary is sure to be elected to Congress.
Two other Republicans who previous announced retirements are Ray LaHood (IL-18) and Duncan
Hunter (CA-52). These districts have PVIs of R+5.5 and R+9.3, so with a decent candidate,
the Republicans should be able to hold them.
All eyes are now on Ralph Regula (R OH-16), who may well decide to call it quits after 18
terms. He would be 86 at the end of a 19th term.
Regula has been in the House so long and is so popular personally that no one knows what would happen
with an open seat. What is known is that Regula almost always way outperforms the Republican presidential
nominee--in effect, the presidential candidate gets a free ride on the congressman's coattails. His
retirement could conceivably cost the Republican presidential nominee thousands of votes in crucial Ohio.
Another potential retiree everyone is holding his breath about is Sen. John Warner (R-VA), but see
the Senate page for that story.
While not an announced retiree, Jo Ann Davis (R VA-01) was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2005 and had a
mastectomy. Her cancer has returned and she is now undergoing treatment. She also underwent urinary tract
surgery in February and has missed 85% of the votes in the House this year. If health issues force her
to retire, her eastern Virginia district will be in play.
Corruption is also going to be an issue in numerous House races. On the Democratic side,
Dollar Bill Jefferson (the Louisiana congressman who had $90,000 neatly wrapped in his freezer) is still
under indictment, but two weeks ago a judge ruled that the FBI's search was illegal, so the government's
case is appreciably weakened and in LA-02 (New Orleans), which is heavily Democratic, he might survive.
Three Republican congressmen are under investigation for corruption as well. Rick Renzi ( AZ-01 ) and
John Doolittle ( CA-04 ) were forced off their committee assignments already. Don Young (AK-AL), who has been
in Congress since before there were polar bears in Alaska, is being investigated for taking bribes.
This scandal is rapidly expanding and could take down both Young and Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) as well.
Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), chairman of the DCCC, is trying to recruit Anchorage mayor Mark Begich to challenge Young.
Young won the seat after the incumbent congressman, Nick Begich (Mark's father) disappeared after a plane crash
while campaigning.
The major problem Van Hollen is facing is Chuck Schumer, chairman of the DSCC, who wants Begich to challenge Stevens.
No matter who wins this fight (and I am betting on Schumer), Young's future looks iffy.
All in all, the House races are definitely heating up.
For more on possible retirements, see the
Swing State Project.
Now for the presidential race.
Here are 16 new polls. What do they show? Hillary is gaining everywhere
and has commanding leads in almost every state. Even in Iowa she is playing
catch up.
The Republican race is more exciting. Noncandidate Fred Thompson is actually
ahead in three states now: Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan, and within the
margin of error in four more: Iowa, Missouri, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
When he announces in about 2 weeks, he'll probably get a bump. Meanwhile,
Giuliani is still ahead in most states, but his lead is far more tenuous than
Hillary's. McCain is in the toilet. His position on immigration is just
anathema to too much of the Republican base. Romney may get a lift from his
win in the Ames straw poll, but since nobody else was running, it may not be
much. At the moment, it looks like a two-way race between Giuliani and
Thompson, but that could easily change.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Alabama
ARG
Aug. 2
38%
19%
17%
26%
16%
3%
31%
Alabama
Capital Survey
July 19
33%
29%
9%
20%
11%
5%
34%
Alabama
Capital Survey
May 1
37%
21%
9%
29%
23%
7%
Alabama
U. of South Alabama
Apr. 19
33%
25%
12%
28%
23%
3%
Alabama
Capital Survey
Mar. 6
35%
19%
9%
28%
23%
3%
Alabama
ARG
Feb. 13
44%
13%
11%
31%
19%
3%
Alabama
Capital Survey
Jan. 17
27%
14%
19%
20%
24%
3%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Arizona
ARG
July 26
39%
25%
8%
23%
32%
7%
15%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
May 29
26%
22%
7%
20%
35%
7%
Arizona
Arizona State U.
Apr. 22
25%
20%
18%
27%
32%
11%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
Mar. 21
27%
20%
9%
25%
34%
11%
Arizona
Arizona State U.
Feb. 25
28%
24%
14%
25%
44%
6%
Arizona
ARG
Feb. 13
33%
24%
13%
21%
45%
2%
Arizona
Rocky Mtn Poll
Jan. 22
32%
15%
18%
13%
40%
11%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Arkansas
ARG
Mar. 19
49%
16%
12%
12%
21%
4%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
California
Field Poll
Aug. 12
35%
22%
16%
35%
9%
14%
13%
California
ARG
Aug. 2
35%
22%
16%
30%
7%
18%
18%
California
Public Policy Inst.
June 19
41%
25%
12%
31%
16%
13%
13%
California
ARG
May 8
37%
28%
15%
27%
24%
11%
California
Field Poll
Mar. 31
41%
28%
13%
36%
24%
7%
California
SurveyUSA
Mar. 6
44%
31%
10%
41%
23%
8%
California
Datamar
Feb. 15
34%
24%
16%
41%
17%
11%
California
ARG
Jan. 17
36%
33%
6%
33%
18%
3%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Colorado
ARG
July 18
39%
22%
10%
35%
11%
9%
20%
Colorado
ARG
Apr. 2
34%
23%
17%
25%
23%
9%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Connecticut
Quinnipiac U.
May 7
28%
20%
8%
36%
15%
9%
Connecticut
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 12
33%
21%
5%
43%
27%
4%
Connecticut
ARG
Feb. 6
40%
8%
10%
32%
21%
14%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Delaware
Fairleigh Dickinson U.
Feb. 25
34%
19%
10%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Aug. 6
43%
13%
8%
26%
11%
9%
19%
Florida
Mason-Dixon
July 26
31%
17%
12%
21%
11%
7%
18%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
July 16
36%
14%
9%
30%
10%
9%
18%
Florida
ARG
July 15
45%
25%
9%
33%
7%
12%
27%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
43%
16%
11%
29%
13%
9%
29%
Florida
Zogby
June 6
36%
16%
11%
31%
12%
12%
10%
Florida
Schroth/Polling Co.
May 9
42%
19%
12%
29%
15%
14%
Florida
ARG
May 8
45%
17%
15%
31%
18%
11%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
36%
13%
11%
38%
15%
7%
Florida
U. of North Florida
Apr. 13
35%
20%
9%
31%
14%
6%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 27
36%
13%
11%
35%
15%
5%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
38%
13%
6%
38%
18%
6%
Florida
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 4
49%
13%
7%
29%
23%
6%
Florida
ARG
Jan. 9
30%
14%
15%
30%
15%
2%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Georgia
ARG
Aug. 6
35%
25%
17%
20%
7%
14%
27%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Idaho
Greg Smith
July 13
31%
33%
15%
20%
14%
38%
18%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Illinois
ARG
July 9
33%
37%
10%
30%
12%
11%
21%
Illinois
ARG
Jan. 14
30%
36%
5%
33%
24%
12%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Iowa
U. of Iowa
Aug. 5
25%
19%
26%
11%
3%
28%
8%
Iowa
Selzer
July 31
26%
26%
27%
14%
26%
8%
13%
Iowa
ARG
July 30
30%
15%
21%
22%
17%
21%
13%
Iowa
Research 2000
July 25
22%
16%
27%
13%
10%
25%
14%
Iowa
ARG
June 30
32%
13%
29%
18%
13%
25%
14%
Iowa
Mason-Dixon
June 16
22%
18%
21%
15%
6%
25%
17%
Iowa
Selzer
May 16
21%
23%
29%
17%
18%
30%
Iowa
Research 2000
May 15
28%
22%
26%
17%
18%
16%
Iowa
Zogby
May 15
24%
22%
26%
16%
18%
17%
Iowa
ARG
Apr. 30
23%
19%
27%
19%
26%
14%
Iowa
U. of Iowa
Mar. 31
28%
19%
34%
21%
20%
17%
Iowa
Zogby
Mar. 26
25%
23%
27%
25%
19%
11%
Iowa
ARG
Mar. 23
34%
16%
33%
29%
29%
10%
Iowa
Zogby
Feb. 9
24%
24%
18%
19%
17%
5%
Iowa
Zogby
Jan. 16
16%
27%
17%
19%
17%
5%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Kansas
Research 2000
May 23
27%
22%
21%
13%
13%
17%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Maine
Critical Insights
Apr. 27
39%
22%
16%
24%
21%
12%
Maine
ARG
Feb. 6
41%
14%
17%
33%
22%
13%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Massachusetts
Suffolk U.
Apr. 15
32%
18%
19%
Massachusetts
ARG
Feb. 6
35%
24%
19%
29%
30%
7%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
Aug. 13
45%
26%
16%
19%
16%
12%
22%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
June 13
38%
25%
14%
19%
22%
24%
8%
Michigan
ARG
May 7
38%
25%
14%
19%
22%
24%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
Mar. 18
45%
29%
16%
26%
30%
21%
Michigan
ARG
Mar. 4
35%
30%
14%
30%
35%
Michigan
EPIC/MRA
Feb. 4
49%
20%
8%
32%
28%
8%
Michigan
ARG
Jan. 7
30%
30%
17%
34%
24%
10%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Missouri
ARG
Aug. 6
40%
15%
22%
23%
14%
11%
22%
Missouri
ARG
Jan. 9
30%
18%
17%
18%
31%
2%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Nevada
Mason-Dixon
June 22
39%
17%
12%
17%
8%
20%
25%
Nevada
ARG
June 19
40%
16%
16%
21%
16%
23%
16%
Nevada
Mason-Dixon
May 1
37%
12%
13%
12%
19%
15%
Nevada
Zogby
Apr. 12
35%
21%
15%
37%
15%
15%
Nevada
Research 2000
Mar. 8
32%
20%
11%
38%
18%
4%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
New Hampshire
ARG
July 30
31%
31%
14%
27%
10%
26%
13%
New Hampshire
Hart/McLaughlin
July 26
36%
19%
15%
17%
16%
33%
13%
New Hampshire
U. of New Hampshire
July 17
36%
27%
9%
20%
12%
34%
13%
New Hampshire
Research 2000
July 11
33%
25%
15%
21%
18%
28%
11%
New Hampshire
ARG
June 30
34%
25%
11%
19%
21%
27%
10%
New Hampshire
Suffolk U.
June 24
37%
19%
9%
22%
13%
26%
13%
New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon
June 7
26%
21%
18%
15%
16%
27%
12%
New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce Coll.
June 6
41%
17%
15%
18%
17%
27%
9%
New Hampshire
Zogby
May 16
28%
26%
15%
19%
19%
35%
New Hampshire
ARG
Apr. 29
37%
14%
26%
17%
29%
24%
New Hampshire
Zogby
Apr. 3
29%
23%
23%
19%
25%
25%
New Hampshire
U. of New Hampshire
Apr. 3
27%
20%
21%
29%
29%
17%
New Hampshire
ARG
Mar. 23
37%
23%
20%
19%
23%
17%
New Hampshire
Franklin Pierce Coll.
Mar. 12
32%
25%
16%
28%
29%
22%
New Hampshire
Suffolk U.
Feb. 28
28%
26%
17%
37%
27%
17%
New Hampshire
Zogby/UNH
Feb. 8
27%
23%
13%
27%
28%
13%
New Hampshire
Zogby
Jan. 17
19%
19%
23%
20%
26%
13%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
New Jersey
Rutgers/Eagleton
Aug. 7
45%
21%
16%
61%
10%
5%
8%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
July 2
46%
19%
8%
48%
12%
7%
10%
New Jersey
Monmouth U.
Apr. 16
41%
22%
13%
49%
19%
6%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 16
38%
16%
9%
49%
18%
6%
New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson U.
Mar. 4
46%
18%
10%
59%
20%
6%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 25
41%
19%
5%
58%
15%
2%
New Jersey
Quinnipiac U.
Jan. 22
30%
8%
16%
39%
21%
5%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
New Mexico
ARG
Jan. 13
22%
17%
12%
38%
20%
7%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
New York
Siena Coll.
July 28
48%
14%
7%
40%
13%
7%
11%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
June 17
44%
14%
6%
46%
8%
3%
14%
New York
Siena Coll.
Apr. 20
39%
17%
11%
47%
16%
8%
New York
Blum+Weprin
Apr. 7
49%
17%
11%
56%
15%
5%
New York
ARG
Apr. 2
41%
20%
16%
50%
14%
7%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 2
44%
14%
9%
52%
13%
6%
New York
Siena Coll.
Mar. 22
43%
11%
7%
31%
20%
6%
New York
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 11
47%
16%
7%
51%
17%
1%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
North Carolina
Elon U.
Apr. 19
20%
20%
26%
32%
22%
10%
North Carolina
ARG
Jan. 15
26%
19%
30%
34%
26%
2%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Aug. 6
41%
16%
11%
29%
11%
8%
11%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
July 9
35%
17%
13%
24%
14%
8%
18%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
46%
14%
15%
26%
16%
8%
18%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
May 13
38%
19%
11%
23%
17%
11%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
37%
14%
17%
23%
21%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 19
32%
22%
11%
31%
20%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
32%
19%
13%
35%
18%
3%
Ohio
U. of Akron
Feb. 21
42%
16%
17%
36%
28%
6%
Ohio
Quinnipiac U.
Jan. 28
38%
11%
13%
30%
22%
4%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Oklahoma
Sooner
Apr. 30
29%
13%
29%
32%
23%
6%
Oklahoma
ARG
Feb. 13
40%
15%
16%
37%
21%
2%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Oregon
Riley Research
Mar. 13
31%
21%
8%
33%
20%
5%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Aug. 6
35%
19%
10%
29%
16%
3%
14%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
June 25
38%
22%
10%
29%
16%
4%
15%
Pennsylvania
Franklin and Marshall
June 4
40%
18%
21%
29%
29%
12%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Apr. 24
36%
14%
13%
29%
17%
5%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 25
36%
17%
9%
33%
18%
5%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Mar. 4
29%
18%
11%
43%
17%
6%
Pennsylvania
Susquehanna
Feb. 20
42%
16%
11%
37%
29%
6%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac U.
Feb. 5
37%
11%
11%
30%
20%
4%
Pennsylvania
ARG
Jan. 8
32%
12%
13%
35%
25%
1%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Rhode Island
Brown U.
Jan. 27
33%
8%
15%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
South Carolina
ARG
July 30
29%
33%
18%
28%
10%
7%
27%
South Carolina
Opinion Research
July 18
27%
27%
17%
30%
21%
6%
18%
South Carolina
ARG
June 30
37%
22%
21%
22%
23%
8%
19%
South Carolina
Mason-Dixon
June 15
25%
34%
12%
21%
7%
11%
25%
South Carolina
Winthrop U.
May 27
29%
21%
11%
19%
14%
12%
6%
South Carolina
ARG
Apr. 30
36%
24%
18%
23%
36%
6%
South Carolina
Hamilton/McHenry
Apr. 19
31%
27%
16%
15%
24%
10%
South Carolina
Zogby
Apr. 17
33%
26%
21%
19%
22%
10%
South Carolina
ARG
Feb. 27
36%
25%
20%
29%
35%
5%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Texas
U. of Texas
May 7
33%
21%
8%
23%
27%
6%
11%
Texas
ARG
Mar. 19
34%
32%
11%
30%
20%
13%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Utah
ARG
Feb. 13
31%
18%
9%
13%
21%
40%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Vermont
ARG
Feb. 6
37%
19%
14%
29%
30%
7%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
West Virginia
ARG
Apr. 2
37%
22%
19%
29%
33%
8%
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Giuliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Wisconsin
St. Norbert Coll.
Apr. 17
33%
30%
18%
26%
24%
9%
This page is the prototype for 2008. The data and map will refer to previous
elections until serious polls begin in 2008. The blog will be updated when
there is interesting news about the 2008 races.