Here is more data from
on how well the 42 new House freshmen Democrats are doing at
fundraising. Since they were swept in in the 2006 tidal wave, they could
be vulnerable in 2008.
All of these Democrats either defeated an incumbent Republican
or won an open seat in 2006. No Republican challenger defeated a
Democratic incumbent in 2006.
This chart gives a first clue to where the House action will be in 2008.
Any Democrat with oodles of money is going to (1) be tough to beat and
(2) scare off top-tier Republican challengers. For example, Kirsten
Gillibrand is in a Republican district, but with so much money in the
bank, any Republican will think twice about taking her on, especially
if this means giving up a safe seat in the state legislature.
On the other hand, Yvette Clark has under 50,000 in the bank.
But she got 90% of the vote in 2006 and Kerry carried her district
by 73% in 2004. She doesn't need any money. She just has to show up.
In the table below, the blue lines are districts that Kerry
won in 2004; the red lines are districts that Bush won. The
blue lines near the top of the table are probably safe for the
incumbent (Democratic district and rich incumbent Democrat). The red
lines near the bottom of the table (Republican district and a
poor Democratic incumbent) are going to be the Republicans' top targets.
These include Charlie Wilson (OH-06), Carol Shea-Porter ( NH-01 ),
Michael Arcuri ( NY-24 ), and Steve Kagen ( WI-08 ).
For comparison purposes, the median receipts for the first half of
2007 for all House members was about $250,000. Of the new
freshmen Democrats, only Charlie Wilson is below that.
The third column shows what fraction of the vote the incumbent representative
got in 2006 and the fourth column shows which party won the
district in 2004, so R+8 means Bush won by 8% in 2004.