The Hot House Races
There were many close races in 2006 and all of these are expected to be highly competitive in 2008. Furthermore, many Democrats won in districts that are normally Republican. These, too, will be battlegrounds in 2008. Below are a list of races that are expected to be the most competitive in 2008.
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The site also has a list of all 435 House races as well as House polling data in .csv format for downloading.
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Arizona AZ-05
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Harry Mitchell (D) |
J.D. Hayworth (R) |
In a surprise upset, Harry Mitchell knocked off incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this somewhat Republican district. The Republicans will fight hard to take it back in 2008. |
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California CA-11
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Jerry McNerney (D) |
Richard Pombo (R) |
Jerry McNerny beat Richard Pombo here in 2006. Even half a million dollars from Jack Abramoff couldn't save Pombo. But the district leans slightly Republican, so the GOP will try to find a solid and less corrupt challenger in 2008. |
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Connecticut CT-04
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Christopher Shays (R) |
Diane Farrell (D) |
Christopher Shays represents a liberal district in a liberal state and faced an antiwar challenger in 2004 will almost beat him. He is the only Republican representative in all of New England. You can bet the Democrats will target him like no other in 2008. Diane Farrell might even go for it again. |
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Florida FL-13
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Vern Buchanan (R) |
Christine Jennings (D) |
This was a safe Republican seat in Sarasota that Katherine Harris abandoned in her futile quest for a promotion. Not only will she lose big time for the Senate, but her departure puts the House seat in play. Buchanan is a wealthy car dealer and Jennings is a wealthy banker. Both sides had bitter and expensive primaries and the general election will be more of the same. Tossup. |
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Florida FL-16
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Tim Mahoney (D) |
Joe Negron (R) |
This seat was formerly occupied by disgraced former congressman Mark Foley when he wasn't sending sexual e-mails to teenage congressional pages. Tim Mahoney (D) won it narrowly in 2006, but the Republicans have a slight registration edge here and Mahoney will have to fight hard to keep hsi seat. |
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Indiana IN-02
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Chris Chocola (R) |
Chris Chocola is a wealthy businessman in a working class district. His strong support for the Bush administration and the war in Iraq have not been popular here. He knows he is in trouble because he asked for five debates (and got three). Normally, incumbents don't want any debates because it gives free publicity to their lesser known challengers. Furthermore, Chocola brought in the most popular Republican in the country--Laura Bush--to campaign for him. Chocola is a good campaigner. These two faced off in 2004 and Chocola won, but recent polls show Donnelly ahead. Leans Democratic. |
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Indiana IN-08
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
John Hostettler (R) |
Brad Ellsworth (D) |
Although a mechanical engineer by training, Hostettler was so upset by the election of Bill Clinton that he decided to run for Congress in 1994 and was carried in on the Republican tide of that year. He is an extreme conservative who has gone on record saying that Democrats demonize Christians. He was also arrested for trying to take a loaded 9-mm pistol onto an airplane but plea-bargained his way out of jail. This and more makes him a good target for Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Make no mistakes--the mud will fly in this one. Leans Democratic. |
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Indiana IN-09
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Mike Sodrel (R) |
Baron Hill (D) |
Another rematch of 2004. In that year, Sodrel ousted Hill, who is trying to get his old job back. Sodrel, who comes from a trucking background, drives his own 18-wheeler on the campaign trail. He is a staunch conservative. Hill served 8 years in the Indiana House before serving 6 years in Congress. The 2004 election was very close, with Sodrel winning by only 1500 votes, but because the district used electronic voting machines, a recount was impossible. This will be a bitter grudge match. Tossup. |
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New Mexico NM-01
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Heather Wilson (R) |
Patricia Madrid (D) |
That Heather Wilson, a conservative Republican, got elected in the first place in this heavily Hispanic district that went for Kerry by a large margin is a bit surprising, but now she has the fight of her life against New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Wilson's tie to disgraced former House majority leader Tom DeLay is a major issue. While incumbents always have an advantage, with a strong Democratic tide, Madrid could win this one. If the tide is weak, Wilson, who is hardly mentioning that she is a Republican, might just hang on barely. Tossup. |
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New York NY-20
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
John Sweeney (R) |
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
This district is normally Republican, but Kirsten Gillibrand is attacking Rep. Sweeney for his support of the war and for taking free skiing vacations from lobbyists. If the war or corruption are the dominant issue, she could win. Furthermore, with Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton expected to win in landslides, downticket candidates like Gillibrand will try to hang onto their coattails. Nevertheless, she is a political neophyte running against an experienced three-term incumbent. Leans Republican. |
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New York NY-24
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Ray Meier (R) |
Mike Arcuri (D) |
This seat is being vacated by long-time liberal Republican (yes, Virginia, there were once liberal Republicans) Sherwood Boehlert. The district is upstate, around Utica, and went narrowly for Bush in 2004. The Democrat, Mike Arcuri, is a four-term Oneida County district attorney. The Republican, Ray Meier, is a state senator. A complicating factor in this race is that the Democrats have two immensely popular figures at the top of the ticket, Eliot Spitzer running for Governor and Hillary Clinton running for President--oops, senator. They are both expected to win historic landslides, which could help downticket Democrats like Arcuri. Probably Democratic |
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North Carolina NC-08
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Robin Hayes (R) |
Larry Kissell (D) |
NC-08 is an old-fashioned Bible belt district where textile mills once hummed, including Cannon Mills, founded by incumbent Robin Hayes' grandfather. Hayes said he would never vote for CAFTA, which could spell the death knell for the few remaining mills, and indeed he initially voted against it. But pressure from the Republican leadership caused him to switch sides at the last minute and vote for it, breaking a tie and allowing it to pass the House 217 to 215. His constituents were not pleased and Kissell keeps reminding them of it. On the other hand, Hayes inherited millions from grandpa and is not shy about spending it. Kissell is an unknown high school teacher, but in the current local and national climate, any Democrat has a good chance in NC-08. Tossup. |
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North Carolina NC-11
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Charles Taylor (R) |
Heath Shuler (D) |
Under normal conditions, Charles Taylor's run for reelection would not attract much attention, but for two reasons it has become a tossup this year. First, Taylor is a strong opponent of CAFTA, which he says would cause his largely blue collar district to bleed jobs, but he failed to vote on the CAFTA bill, which passed the House 217-215, something he has not been forgiven. Second, his opponent, North Carolina native Heath Shuler, is a former NFL quarterback, which gives him instant name recognition all over the district. Shuler has used his fame to raise large amounts of money as well. If the Democratic tide is strong this November, newbies like Shuler will be swept along to victory. Leans Democratic. |
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Ohio OH-15
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Deborah Pryce (R) |
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) |
Deborah Pryce is #4 in the Republican House leadership and has been elected from this district seven times. Normally, this would make her a shoo-in, but with corruption in Washington and corruption in Ohio are big issues, plus a likely Democratic landslide for the governor's race, Pryce has a big fight on her hands against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy. Recent polls show Kilroy leading by over 10%, but Pryce is a fighter. Tossup. |
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Ohio OH-18
| Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
Joy Padgett (R) |
Zack Space (D) |
On Aug. 7, 2006, Bob Ney withdrew from the race for OH-18 due to the influence-peddling scandals surrounding him. He announced his support for Joy Padgett as the Republican candidate, who was then duly nominated. Her calls for fiscal responsibility, which is popular in Ohio, will no doubt be contrasted with her own filing for personal bankruptcy June 15, 2006, in which she and her husband had $1.1 million in debts, including a loan from the Small Business Administration. Tossup. |
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Pennsylvania PA-06
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Jim Gerlach (R) |
Lois Murphy (D) |
Incumbent Rep. Jim Gerlach beat lawyer Lois Murphy in 2004 by only 6000 votes, but the sands have shifted and the wind is with the Democrats this year. Gerlach understands that and is running furiously--away from George Bush. The candidates have raised roughly equal amounts of money. This will be the most exciting race in Pennsylvania this year. Leans Democratic. |
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Pennsylvania PA-10
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Don Sherwood (R) |
Chris Carney (D) |
This district is conservative and reliably Republican. Also, Don Sherwood is extremely wealthy and has no problem spending lots of his own money on the race. Sounds like a no-brainer, doesn't it? It would have been had he not started choking his mistress of five years, Cynthia Ore, so she locked herself in his bathroom and called 911. When she got out, she sued him for $5 million. He settled out of court in 2005. Conservatives don't like that kind of stuff. You're supposed to have your affairs be more discreet. Still, given the nature of the district, Tossup. |
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Texas TX-22
| Write-in | Challenger | Notes |
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) |
Nick Lampson (D) |
This is Tom DeLay's district. The ethically challenged Congressman got on the ballot before his association with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff got him indicted. Quick like a bunny he moved to Virginia claiming he was no longer a Texan so his name could be stricken from the ballot and some other Republican could take his place. The Texas courts didn't buy the instant Virginian idea and so his name is on the ballot but he is not running. Texas Republicans are now running a write-in campaign for Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a wealthy Houston dermatologist. Writing in her name would be hard enough if the voters could actually write on the ballot, but due to the voting equipment, they have to spell it out character by character (with no hyphen available) using a trackball. Nick Lampson is a former Texas Congressman and can easily claim he could do the job since he has already done it. Leans Democratic |
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Texas TX-23
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Henry Bonilla (R) |
Ciro Rodriguez (D) |
This is one of the districts that was gerrymandered as a result of Tom DeLay's machinations. As a result of a court decision, the election on Nov. 7th is a primary, with Henry Bonilla running unopposed and six Democrats vying for their party's nomination. Ciro Rodriguez is the best known of the Democrats. If no candidate gets more than 50%, there will be a runoff a few weeks later. If the House splits 217-217 and Bonilla is below 50%, every politician in the United States will move to southwest Texas for a month. Leans Republican. |
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Wisconsin WI-08
| Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
John Gard (R) |
Steve Kagen (D) |
WI-08 is an open seat around Green Bay being vacated by Mark Green (R), who is running for governor. The district is moderately Republican and is being given the choice between the hard-right conservative speaker of the state Assembly and a liberal medical doctor. The mud is really flying here with some extremely negative ads on TV. Polls have shown the race to be very close. Tossup. |
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