Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 50 Republicans

	Strong Dem (43)
	Weak Dem (3)
	Barely Dem (4)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (1)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Sep. 23	New polls:	DE MT NV PA WA
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

We have Senate polls in five states today. In Pennsylvania, the Keystone Poll puts state treasurer Bob Casey (D) ahead of incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) 46% to 41%, about what it has been in recent weeks. However a poll by Princeton Survey Research puts Casey ahead 52% to 31%. This is completely nutty. Maybe they only sampled Princeton students who vote in Pennsylvania. For consistency, it goes into the data base since this is not a partisan group, but the result is complete garbage.

Rasmussen has polls in Nevada, Montana, and Washington, all of which are consistent with earlier polls. Incumbent Nevada Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) continues to lead Jack Carter by a substantial margin, 50% to 41%. State Senate president, Jon Tester continues to maintain a strong lead over incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT), 50% to 43%. That race is starting to get dirty, with one commercial showing Burns dissing firemen for not putting out a forest fire in Montana fast enough. The idea, of course, is that in the post 9/11 world, firemen are heroes. In Washington, the DUI incident is wearing off, but incumbent Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is holding her lead of insurance CEO McGavick, 48% to 42%. She has been ahead all year and will probably win by a small, but safe margin,

The Delaware Republican primary is now past and the first poll there shows incumbent Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) crushing Republican law professor Jan Ting, 63% to 23% And Ting won a contested primary, too, beating airline pilot, Mike Protack. Why anyone would want to run for the Senate in a race with just about zero chance of winning remains a mystery to me, unless it is to get exposure for a future race. For example, Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) is running against Sen Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in Texas, and has no chance of winning, but this may give her state wide exposure for a 2008 race against the far less popular John Cornyn. But it is hard to imaging Ting running now for practice to go up against Joe Biden in 2008, who is also a shoo-in.

Projected New House*: 215 Democrats 219 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no nonpartisan polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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-- The Votemaster