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Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (43)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (4)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Sep. 22 New polls: AZ MN NE OH PA VT RSS
  Pickups: Missouri Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

News from the Votemaster

We have Senate polls in seven states today. The most important ones are in Pennsylvania, where state treasurer Bob Casey still holds a substantial lead over incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA). The Keystone Poll puts Casey's lead at 45% to 38% and Rasmussen has it at 49% to 39%.

Also important in Ohio, where SurveyUSA puts Rep. Sherrod Brown ahead of incumbent Mike DeWine by 52% to 42%, the largest lead he has had in weeks.

In less exciting action, In Arizona, incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) is holding his lead again challenger Jim Pederson, 50% to 39%. In California, incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein ("DiFi") is way ahead of challender Dick Mountjoy by 49% to 38%, less than she had been, but she's still in no danger.

Neither Minnesota nor Vermont is competitive any more. In Minnesota, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D) is way ahead of Rep. Mark Kennedy (R), 52% to 36% according to a University of Minnesota poll. She has led the whole year and the gap keeps getting bigger. In Nebraska, Pete Ricketts (R) just put another $2.5 million of his own money into his futile campaign against incumbent Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who leads 55% to 32%.

Finally, in Vermont, Bernie Sanders (I) has formally rejected the Democratic nomination and is now running only as an independent. This was a trick to keep any wise-guys from filing as Democrats. But Sanders caucuses with the Democrats in the House and will do so in the Senate, so he is functionally a Democrat. He has a 25% lead, so he will just move over from the House to the Senate easily.

On the House side, I have dug up 51 polls from the archives of various pollsters. I won't read them all out loud here, but the House poll collection is beginning to be substantial. See them here .

Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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