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Projected New Senate:     48 Democrats     52 Republicans    

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Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (42)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (4)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Sep. 10 New polls: NY VA RSS
  Pickups: Montana New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

If you are new to the site today, also take a look at Friday's posting as it contains some fascinating data (or click on the 'Previous report' link above to travel backward in time).

Only two polls today. A Marist College polls shows Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) maintaining her large lead in NY over John Spencer, the likely Republican nominee, 62% to 32%. Also, Sen. George Allen (R-VA) is still hurting from the "macaca" incident, with his previous double-digit lead over Democrat (and former Reagan Navy Secretary) Jim Webb reduced to 46% to 42% according to Mason-Dixon. Worse yet, Allen's favorable rating is only 41%, very dangerous for an incumbent--since in a race with an incumbent, the undecideds almost always end up breaking strongly for the challenger.

The NY Times has a nice article about Tuesday's Republican primary in Rhode Island. The Republican National Committee is pulling out all stops to help incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI), even though he voted against the war in Iraq, the Bush tax cuts, and almost everything else the administration holds dear. Although he did vote for George Bush in 2004, it was a write-in for former president George H.W. Bush. But party officials know all too well that if Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey wins the primary on Tuesday, Laffey has no chance of winning the general election against Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse in this very Democratic state and they can kiss the seat goodbye.

I just came across a fantasy Republican Website: www.race42008.com. It ranks the Republican candidates for 2008 based on current polls. Now I love polls, but anyone who puts any stock in polls taken more than two years before the election has been smoking something and inhaling it. Still it is interesting to take a peek into the Republican kitchen. Currently the top six are:

  1. Rudy Giuliani. Might be able to win the general election, but I can already envision the ad Karl Rove will write about him in the primaries. "When Giuliani's second wife, the beautiful actress Donna Hanover, got tired of his cheating on her with his now-third wife, Judith Nathan, Hanover kicked him out of the house, so he moved in with his good friends, a lovely gay couple." Selling a pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, former mayor of NYC to Bible Belt Republican activists will be a tall order, but you can't win if you can't get nominated.
  2. John McCain. The Base dislikes McCain due to his opposition to a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, but he is otherwise well-known and popular in the country and is a serious contender
  3. Mitt Romney. Being governor of the bluest state in the country may not sit well with Republican activists in the dark red states and some Evangelicals don't like the fact that he is a devout Mormon.
  4. Mike Huckabee. He used to be very fat but lost 110 pounds. Maybe his slogan will be: I balanced the scales so I can balance the federal budget. Main problem: nobody has ever heard of him.
  5. Newt Gingrich. The ghost of Christmas past.
  6. Bill Frist. A heart surgeon who can't tell the difference between living people and dead people, even when shown a videotape of the patient. I don't think I'd want him to operate on me.

Although the site doesn't rate her, they are salivating at the prospect of a Condi candi, even though she has never held elective office and has repeatedly ruled out a run. She is clearly very intelligent and it would be nice to think that a never-married, pro-choice, black woman with a Ph.D. could win her native state of Alabama, but I am not holding my breath.

All this is (fun) nonsense, of course, but what I really like about the site is its attractive graphical layout, optimized for expensive, large, 1600x1200 monitors--the kind of kit Republicans favor.

So much for going after Republicans. Now it is time to go after Democrats. Check out today's new cartoon of the week on the political humor page.

Be sure to come back tomorrow. Lots of new data coming up.

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-- The Votemaster
WWW www.electoral-vote.com

absentee ballot for overseas voter