Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 51 Republicans

	Strong Dem (45)
	Weak Dem (2)
	Barely Dem (2)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (3)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (46)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 28	New polls:	MA ME MN MT OH RI TX
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Senate Polls

Although we have seven Senate polls today, none of them are really surprising. All confirm well-known results that the Democratic candidates are very likely to win in Montana, Ohio, Minnesota, and Rhode Island, and the Republican candidates are certain to win in Maine and Texas.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Maine	Jean Bright	Olympia Snowe*	Oct 23	8	14%	74%		Critical Insights
Mass.	Ted Kennedy*	Ken Chase	Oct 25	4	60%	25%		U. of New Hampshire
Minnesota	Amy Klobuchar	Mark Kennedy	Oct 25	1	53%	39%		Rasmussen
Montana	Jon Tester	Conrad Burns*	Oct 26	1	51%	47%		Rasmussen
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 24	1	53%	41%		Rasmussen
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse	Lincoln Chafee*	Oct 25	3	43%	33%		Rhode Island Coll.
Texas	Barbara Radnofsky	Kay Hutchison*	Oct 23	1	34%	60%		Rasmussen

House Polls

Over in the House we have the first polls in Maine. In ME-01, incumbent Tom Allen (D) is leading challenger Darlene Curley (R) 62% to 18%. In ME-02, incumbent Michael Michaud (D) is leading challenger Laurence D'Amboise (R) 62% to 25%. Maine shows the power of incumbency very starkly. When the incumbent is a Republican, as in the case of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), she is trouncing her Democratic rival Jean Hay-Bright by 60 percentage points. But in the House races, the incumbent Democrats are going to win landslide victories over Republicans.

The other House polls confirm earlier results.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
AZ-08	Gabrielle Giffords	Randy Graf	Oct 23	4	48%	38%		Zimmerman
ME-01	Tom Allen*	Darlene Curley	Oct 23	8	62%	18%		Critical Insights
ME-02	Michael Michaud*	Laurence D'Amboise	Oct 23	8	62%	25%		Critical Insights
PA-08	Patrick Murphy	Mike Fitzpatrick*	Oct 23	5	39%	48%		Keystone Poll
SC-05	John Spratt*	Ralph Norman	Oct 25	9	61%	28%		Clemson U.
VT-AL	Peter Welch	Martha Rainville	Oct 24	2	51%	41%		Research 2000

Politics

Widely respected political analyst Charlie Cook has compared the polling data in 2006 with comparable data from 1994 and sees black clouds for the Republicans. Just as then, the incumbent party is seen as arrogant, corrupt, and out of touch with the people. On four out of the five key diagnostic indicators, the Democrats are now in better shape than the Republicans were a week before the 1994 elections. However, Congress is even more gerrymandered now than it was then, so the Democratic victory in the House is not not likely to be as large as it was then. Cook foresees a Democratic gain of 20-35 seats in the House and 5-6 in the Senate.

Another analyst, Stu Rothenberg, predicts a Democratic gain of 18-28 seats in the House and 4-7 seats in the Senate.

For those readers fond of mud wrestling, the Virginia Senate race is a golden opportunity. Democratic candidate Jim Webb has written some novels and Sen. George Allen (R) is making a big deal about some steamy passages in them. He should be careful though. Republicans write books too. As Political Wire notes, Second Lady Lynne Cheney wrote a book about lesbians, brothels, and attempted rape, not to mention one in which a Republican Vice President dies of a heart attack while having sex with his mistress.

Projected New House*: 226 Democrats 207 Republicans 2 Ties

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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-- The Votemaster