Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 51 Republicans

	Strong Dem (45)
	Weak Dem (3)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (0)
	Barely GOP (3)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (46)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 27	New polls:	CA MA MI MO NJ OH VT
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

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Poll of the Day

Senate Polls

Senate news is mixed today. For the Republicans, the $5 million ad buy in New Jersey may be paying off. State senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is now in a statistical tie with incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), with the New York Times putting Menendez ahead 40% to 39% and a more recent Rasmussen poll putting him slightly behind, 43% to 41%. If the Republicans can pull this one off, the Senate is probably safe for them.

Missouri is unchanged, with incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) holding a statistically insignificant lead over Claire McCaskill (D). Rasmussen puts the lead at 2% and SurveyUSA puts it at 3%. This race keeps changing and will go right down to the wire. To the best of my knowledge, this has been a relatively clean race, focusing largely on the issues rather than alleged indiscretions in the candidates' past.

The bad news for Republicans is in Ohio. Sherrod Brown (D) has opened a yawning lead over incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine, 57% to 37%. The GOP has pulled its ads here and effectively conceded the race. One problem, however, is that Ohio now looks like New York. In both states, Democrats are going to win landslide victories for both governor and senator, and this may help Democrats in the many competitive House races in both states.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
California	Dianne Feinstein*	Dick Mountjoy	Oct 25	3	59%	33%		SurveyUSA
Mass.	Ted Kennedy*	Ken Chase	Oct 24	1	60%	26%		Suffolk U.
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow*	Mike Bouchard	Oct 25	4	50%	38%		EPIC-MRA
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 25	1	46%	48%		Rasmussen
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	Jim Talent*	Oct 23	3	45%	48%		SurveyUSA
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 25	1	41%	43%		Rasmussen
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	Tom Kean, Jr.	Oct 25	6	40%	39%		CBS NY Times
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	Mike DeWine*	Oct 25	3	57%	37%		SurveyUSA
Vermont	Bernie Sanders	Rich Tarrant	Oct 26	1		36%	57%	Research 2000

House Polls

There is also cheery news for the GOP in the House races. Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ) has taken the lead from Ellen Simon (D) in AZ-01 again, 45% to 32%. In NY-26, the district of Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), who is implicated in the Foley scandal, Reynolds has a narrow lead, 50% to 45% over industrialist Jack Davis (D). Finally, in VA-02 , incumbent Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) is clinging to the narrowest of leads over Phil Kellam (D). This district is full of military families, and their views on Iraq will probably decide the race here.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
AZ-01	Ellen Simon	Rick Renzi*	Oct 22	3	32%	45%		Northen Arizona U.
NY-26	Jack Davis	Tom Reynolds*	Oct 25	3	45%	50%		SurveyUSA
VA-02	Phil Kellam	Thelma Drake*	Oct 25	2	44%	46%		Mason-Dixon

Politics

In the Chinese calendar, 2006 is the year of the dog, but in American politics it is the year of the gutter rat. The Washington Post has a story on this. Largely it is a Republican attempt to distract attention from the mounting death toll in Iraq.

Projected New House*: 226 Democrats 207 Republicans 2 Ties

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:

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