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Projected New Senate:     49 Democrats     51 Republicans    

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strong Dem Strong Dem (45)
weak Dem Weak Dem (3)
barely Dem Barely Dem (1)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (3)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (46)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Oct. 27 New polls: CA MA MI MO NJ OH VT RSS
  Pickups: Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

News from the Votemaster

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Poll of the Day

How well is President Bush doing his job?
Excellent Good Fair Poor Terrible   

Senate Polls

Senate news is mixed today. For the Republicans, the $5 million ad buy in New Jersey may be paying off. State senator Tom Kean, Jr. (R) is now in a statistical tie with incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), with the New York Times putting Menendez ahead 40% to 39% and a more recent Rasmussen poll putting him slightly behind, 43% to 41%. If the Republicans can pull this one off, the Senate is probably safe for them.

Missouri is unchanged, with incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) holding a statistically insignificant lead over Claire McCaskill (D). Rasmussen puts the lead at 2% and SurveyUSA puts it at 3%. This race keeps changing and will go right down to the wire. To the best of my knowledge, this has been a relatively clean race, focusing largely on the issues rather than alleged indiscretions in the candidates' past.

The bad news for Republicans is in Ohio. Sherrod Brown (D) has opened a yawning lead over incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine, 57% to 37%. The GOP has pulled its ads here and effectively conceded the race. One problem, however, is that Ohio now looks like New York. In both states, Democrats are going to win landslide victories for both governor and senator, and this may help Democrats in the many competitive House races in both states.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
California Dianne Feinstein* Dick Mountjoy Oct 25 3 59% 33%   SurveyUSA
Mass. Ted Kennedy* Ken Chase Oct 24 1 60% 26%   Suffolk U.
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Oct 25 4 50% 38%   EPIC-MRA
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 25 1 46% 48%   Rasmussen
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Oct 23 3 45% 48%   SurveyUSA
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 25 1 41% 43%   Rasmussen
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Oct 25 6 40% 39%   CBS NY Times
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Oct 25 3 57% 37%   SurveyUSA
Vermont Bernie Sanders Rich Tarrant Oct 26 1   36% 57% Research 2000

House Polls

There is also cheery news for the GOP in the House races. Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ) has taken the lead from Ellen Simon (D) in AZ-01 again, 45% to 32%. In NY-26, the district of Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), who is implicated in the Foley scandal, Reynolds has a narrow lead, 50% to 45% over industrialist Jack Davis (D). Finally, in VA-02 , incumbent Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) is clinging to the narrowest of leads over Phil Kellam (D). This district is full of military families, and their views on Iraq will probably decide the race here.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
AZ-01 Ellen Simon Rick Renzi* Oct 22 3 32% 45%   Northen Arizona U.
NY-26 Jack Davis Tom Reynolds* Oct 25 3 45% 50%   SurveyUSA
VA-02 Phil Kellam Thelma Drake* Oct 25 2 44% 46%   Mason-Dixon


In the Chinese calendar, 2006 is the year of the dog, but in American politics it is the year of the gutter rat. The Washington Post has a story on this. Largely it is a Republican attempt to distract attention from the mounting death toll in Iraq.

Projected New House*:     226 Democrats     207 Republicans     2 Ties
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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