Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 51 Republicans
News from the Votemaster
Poll of the Day
In yesterday's poll on this site, an astounding 89% thought that the Democrats would get 218 seats or more in the House--a majority. For today's poll, "Help Bush" reflects a generalized support for the administration that is broader than any one issue. "Hurt Bush" is generalized distaste for the administration that is broader than any one issue.
I have changed the way congressional districts are hyperlinked. If you click on one of the 50 top CDs, you go to the race description on the hothouse.html page, with photos of the candidates, Wikipedia entries, etc. If you click on the CD name there, you go to the map. In lesser races, clicking on the CD name goes directly to the map. Practice here: competitive AZ-08 , not competitive CO-01.
We have a whole boatload of Senate polls today. The details are below. My tentative conclusions. First, Menendez will probably hang onto New Jersey by the skin of his teeth (this conclusion in part because New Jersey hasn't elected a Republican senator in 30 years). Second, the Democrats will win Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Third, Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia are seesawing back and forth and are too close to call. All the polls have margins of error of about 3-4%, which means it takes a difference between the candidates of 6-8% to make the poll statistically significant. If you want to make a difference, you could make a contribution to your favorite candidate in MO, TN, or VA.
We have four House polls and all are statistical ties. There are a couple of dozen House races that are too close to call. Events in the next two weeks could easily determine what happens.
A Democratic takeover of the House has a couple of consequences I have not seen discussed anywhere. First, Nancy Pelosi will become Speaker, which will make her the highest ranking Democrat in the country--even if the Democrats capture the Senate. The Speaker is second in line for the presidency, after the Veep. The majority leader of the Senate is not even on the list. After the Speaker comes the President pro tem of the Senate, currently Ted Stevens (R-AK) but will shift to Robert Byrd (D-WV) if the Democrats win the Senate. Pelosi is from San Francisco and is far more liberal than Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV), a moderate Mormon. Also, Republicans will be hesitant to attack a nice Italian grandmother; people won't like it. Second, after a year of Pelosi running the House, the question of "Can a woman wield great political power well?" will have a more concrete answer. This may have consequences for 2008, when other women may be running for high office.
Projected New House*: 228 Democrats 205 Republicans 2 Ties* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.
Dem pickups: AZ-01 AZ-08 FL-13 FL-16 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 MN-06 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08
See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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-- The Votemaster