Projected New Senate:     50 Democrats     50 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (43) Weak Dem (5) Barely Dem (2) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (2) Weak GOP (2) Strong GOP (46) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Oct. 24	New polls:	RI VA
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Yesterday's poll of our visitors was a big success. Over 12,000 people voted. This means that the margin of error is under 1%--a very precise poll. Unfortunately, it is not at all accurate since the sample was not random in a statistical sense. The majority think the Democrats will have 49-51 Senate seats, with 51 being the most popular choice. Click "View" on yesterday's page for the full results. Let's try the House today.

Senate Polls

We have two Senate polls today, both in key states. In Virginia, incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA) seems to have extracted himself from the macaca he stepped in earlier and continues to have a small lead over former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D), 47% to 43%, according to Mason-Dixon.

In Rhode Island, Rasmussen has Sheldon Whitehouse (D) ahead of incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) by 52% to 44%. Chafee has trailed all year. Probably the only thing he could do now to save his seat is switch to the Democratic party. Rhode Island voters actually like Chafee; it's the Republican party they don't like. But I doubt he will switch after all the money the NRSC pumped into his primary.

House Polls

Four House polls today. An earlier poll in IN-07 showed Eric Dickerson (R) ahead of Julia Carson (D-IN), which surprised everyone, me included. But a new Research 2000 poll puts her ahead again, 48% to 43%. Given that three nearby Republicans are probably going to be unseated, it is most unlikely that an Indiana Democrat would lose.

Speaking of unseating Indiana Republicans, Mike Sodrel (R) continues to trail former congressman Baron Hill (D) in IN-09 , as he has all year. The SurveyUSA poll puts it as 47% to 43%.

Another closely watched race is NM-01 , where attorney general Patricia Madrid (D) is leading incumbent Heather Wilson (R-NM) narrowly, 45% to 42%. While the lead is statistically insignificant, Madrid has led in all recent polls, so she probably is actually ahead.

Politics

Several people asked me about what kind of voting equipment is used in the key states of Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. Information about the equipment can be found here with thanks to Prof. Edward Felten of Princeton, whose work on the security of voting machines has caused an uproar).

The respected National Journal just released its top 30 races of seats most likely to flip. All the incumbents are Republicans. The comments are summaries of what NJ said.

Not to be outdone, I have also compiled a top 30, but my list is simply a list of which Democrats are farthest ahead in the polls. I don't actual believe in this order myself though. The third column is the incumbent's margin of victory in 2004.

In New Hampshire, out-of-state college students can vote. This means that about 5000 Dartmouth students are allowed to vote in the Bass-Hodes congressional race, and an overwhemling majority will no doubt vote for Hodes. In a close race, the student vote might tip it.

Projected New House*:     229 Democrats     205 Republicans     1 Tie

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