Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 49 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (44)
	Weak Dem (3)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (0)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 10	New polls:	MI PA
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

Senate Polls

Two polls in Pennsylvania, from Rasmussen and Muhlenberg College, give Bob Casey leads in the PA Senate race of 13% and 5% respectively. It is not clear what the descrepancy is caused by, but Rasmussen uses robopolling and Muhlenberg uses telephone polling.

In Michigan, a SurveyUSA poll shows incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) way ahead of Oakland County sheriff Mike Bouchard, 53% to 42%.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow*	Mike Bouchard	Oct 09	4	53%	42%		SurveyUSA
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 06	1	52%	39%		Rasmussen
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	Rick Santorum*	Oct 08	6	46%	41%		Muhlenberg Coll.

House Polls

SurveyUSA has two new House polls, both showing very close races. In IN-09, Baron Hill (D) is just a tad ahead of incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) in this rematch of 2004, 48% to 46%, a statistical tie.

In MN-06, Patty Wetterling (D) has closed the gap with Michele Bachman (R) and now trails 46% to 44%.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem	GOP	Ind	Pollster
IN-09	Baron Hill	Mike Sodrel*	Oct 09	4	48%	46%		SurveyUSA
MN-06	Patty Wetterling	Michele Bachmann	Oct 08	3	44%	47%		SurveyUSA

Politics

Three generic polls have just been released on the question of which party the voters want to control Congress. In all three, people prefer the Democrats by wide margins. In the NY Times poll it is 49% to 35%; in the Washington Post poll it is 54% to 41%; and in the Gallup poll it is 59% to 36%. However, these numbers mean almost nothing as most Americans think congressmen are a bunch of greedy, arrogant, corrupt scoundrels--except for their congressman, who is a fine upstanding gentleman. These polls have little predictive value. They are the off-year equivalent of national presidential popularity polls. As with the White House, you have to win Congress state by state and district by district.

The NY Times had a very insightful story about the Foley scandal and the religious right, which forms the core of the Republican party these days. Briefly summarized, practically all the evangelicals interviewed said that Foley had sinned and should repent but that they were voting Republican because Democrats tolerate homosexual behavior. The fact that Foley was solicting minors didn't bother them as much as the fact that he is gay. Also, Speaker Hastert's not only tolerating, but hiding Foley's behavior didn't seem to make a difference.

My conclusion from this is that the Democrats should simply forget about these voters. It is a lost cause and catering to them just alienates other voters. Instead, they should forget family values and attempt to peel off libertarians from the Republican party. These people are hopping mad at the Republicans for abandoning their long-standing commitment to balanced budgets and for Bush's turning the Clinton surplus he inherited into the biggest budget deficit in history. Furthermore, they believe that the government has no business interfering with people's personal lives. If you want an abortion, it is none of the government's business. If two consenting adults want to do something in their own bedroom, it is none of the government's business. If you want to borrow a book from the library, it is none of the government's business which book. If you want to call someone on the phone, the government has no business eavesdropping on you without a court order. On these and many other civil liberties issues, libertarians and Democrats are in close agreement. Libertarian Republicans salute former Arizona senator Barry Goldwater as their hero, not Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush.

Projected New House*: 219 Democrats 215 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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