Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 49 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (44)
	Weak Dem (3)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (0)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 09	New polls:	RI
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

If you didn't check the site yesterday and want to learn about my personal foray into Vermont politics, click on "Previous Report" above.

I wrote a bit of software to produce the daily polls in table form and will include them from now on. The page will also have a bit more structure from now on, with sections for the Senate polls, House polls, and a third section called "Politics" with analysis of the races and links to other relevant sites. Among other things, with the tables, it won't be necessary to devote much space to races that are pretty much a done deal.

Senate Polls

Rasmussen has a new poll in Rhode Island showing incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) trailing challenger Sheldon Whitehouse 51% to 42%. The GOP put a ton of money into the Republican primary here to save Chafee from a challenge by a guy, Steve Laffey, who they like but who had no chance of winning the general election. It is looking more and more that they wasted their money.

State	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem %	GOP %	Ind	Pollster
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse	Lincoln Chafee*	Oct 06	1	51	42		Rasmussen

House Polls

A new Zogby poll in NY-26 is showing the poisonous effects of the Foley sex scandal, which is far from over. Even minor players are being punished. Case in point: Tom Reynolds (R-NY) should have won his race easily. Instead he is now behind 48% to 33%. His sin? He knew about Foley long ago and didn't ring the bell.

Cong. Distr.	Democrat	Republican	Date	Len	Dem %	GOP %	Ind	Pollster
NY-26	Jack Davis	Tom Reynolds*	Oct 05	2	48	33		Zogby

Politics

For those who don't know, Congressional Quarterly (which is now a daily) is a highly respected publication that reports on Congress. CQ just published a revised projection of all the 2006 races. Here is the low-down.

In the Senate, every seat currently occupied by a Democrat leans Democratic, is Democrat favored or is safe Democratic except New Jersey (Menendez), which they rate as a tossup (I agree). However CQ rates Nebraska (Nelson), Maryland (Sarbanes), and Washington (Cantwell), as only leans Democratic. I agree about Maryland, but there is no conceivable way Ben Nelson (D-NE) can lose and it would take a near miracle to unseat Maria Cantwell (D-WA). Conclusion: if Menendez can hang on by his fingernails, the Democrats won't lose any seats in the Senate.

For the GOP, the situation is much bleaker. CQ says Pennsylvania leans Democratic (I agree) and says Montana (Burns), Ohio (DeWine), Rhode Island (Chafee), Missouri (Talent), and Tennessee (Frist) are tossups. I think the first three are lean Democratic. The CQ ratings for the Senate are here.

In the House, every seat currently occupied by a Democrat leans Democratic, is Democrat favored, or safe Democratic except the open seat in OH-06 (Strickland's seat). For the life of me I can't see why they think this race is a tossup. The last poll put Democrat Charlie Wilson 13% ahead of Republican Chuck Blasdel. If CQ is right and OH-06 also goes Democratic, the Democrats will not lose a single seat in the House.

For the GOP, the picture is very different. AZ-08 (Kolbe) is marked Democrat favored, although I would say "lost cause" is more accurate given Gabrielle Gifford's 8% lead and the incumbent's pointed refusal to endorse the Republican candidate, Randy Graf. FL-16 (Foley) and TX-22 (DeLay) are marked "Lean Democratic," but I would put both more strongly.

CQ rates 12 Republican seats as tossups: CO-07 (Beauprez), CT-04 (Shays), FL-22 (Shaw), IL-06 (Hyde), IA-01 (Nussle), IN-08 (Hostettler), IN-09 (Sodrel), MN-06 (Kennedy), NC-11 (Taylor), NY-24 (Boehlert), OH-18 (Ney), and PA-06 (Gerlach). I would go further and add CA-11 (Pombo), CO-04 (Musgrave), CT-02 (Simmons), IN-02 (Chocola, NM-01 (Wilson), NY-26 (Reynolds), OH-15 (Pryce), PA-07 (Weldon), PA-10 (Sherwood), VA-02 (Drake), and WA-08 (Reichert) at the very least. The House looks very bleak for the Republicans. Here is the CQ breakdown for the House.

Projected New House*: 219 Democrats 215 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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-- The Votemaster