Projected New Senate: 50 Democrats 49 Republicans 1 tie
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| Oct. 06 | New polls: | AZ MI NJ NY |  |
| Pickups: | Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee |
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The most interesting poll today is in NY-26, where incumbent Tom Reynolds (R) was expected to win an easy victory over challenger Jack Davis (D). Oops. Reynolds is involved in the Mark Foley sex scandal and a SurveyUSA poll now shows Davis leading 50% to 45%. In related news, it is now clear that Speaker Dennis Hastert knew all about the dirty emails for over 3 years and did nothing except try to hide them. Hastert has a bit of a problem now. People don't always understand national intelligence estimates or the fact that Saddam Hussein was a secular dictator who thought that Osama bin Laden was a maniac and a religious nutcase, but they do understand that preying on teenage boys is morally wrong and that hiding the perpetrator is a sin. Some pollsters are now saying that if Hastert doesn't get this problem fixed FAST, the GOP may be looking at at a loss of 50 seats in the House instead of 20.
In the Senate, a new poll in New Jersey by Fairleigh Dickinson University put incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ahead of challenger Tom Kean, Jr. 46% to 39%. It appears that Kean's momentum has now been reversed in this state, the only one that the Republicans have any chance at all of picking up from the Democrats.
In Michigan, polls from EPIC-MRA and Rasmussen show incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) with big leads over Mike Bouchard. One poll puts her ahead 48% to 35% and the other puts her ahead 56% to 39%. She's safe.
In Arizona, incumbent Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) has a comfortable lead of 45% to 36% over Democrat Jim Pederson. Kyl is probably safe now.
Finally, Hillary is on her way to a landslide in NY. She's ahead 66% to 31% according to a new Quinnipiac poll.
Finally, a personal note. I am in Vermont now for a week and I went to a lovely church supper yesterday. Who should walk in but Rich Tarrant, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, facing Bernie Sanders, who is officially an independent, but in practice a Democrat. Tarrant works the room, shaking hands with about 80 people and making small talk with all of them. I was one of the last. So I said to him: "You realize that everyone in this room except for the little kids who are serving and half a dozen cooks is from out of state?" He looked like somebody had just punched him in the stomach. Here is a guy from Vermont who doesn't know the state is overrun by leaf peepers from all over the country the first week of October? He also didn't realize that the supper had been organized by one of the local churches to be neighborly to the tourists and maybe make a little bit of money for the church (they charged $8.50 a head but members of the congregation donated the food). I guess Tarrant is not a member of the reality-based community.
Projected New House*: 218 Democrats 216 Republicans 1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.
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