Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 50 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (5)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (2)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 04	New polls:	CA FL NM TN UT
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

Today I have the first poll in FL-16, the district represented by disgraced pedophile Mark Foley. However, polling in this district is tricky because the Republican candidate is state Rep. Joe Negron, but Mark Foley's name will appear on the ballot, with a vote for Foley being a vote for Negron. Trouble is, we political junkies know that, but not all the voters do. RT Strategies tried to deal with this by running two polls, one a straight choice of Foley vs. Democrat Tim Mahoney and one in which they explained the situation. In the former, Mahoney led 50% to 43%. In the latter, Mahoney still led, but now only by 49% to 46%. We will put the latter one in the data base on the assumption that by November, most of the voters will know the scoop. Either way, this looks like a pickup for the Democrats. Furthermore, Speaker Denny Hastert is in deep doo-doo. He basically lied when he said he knew nothing about this until ABC News broke the story. In truth, a New York congressman told him about this nearly a year ago and he did nothing. Some people are already calling for Hastert's head. This can't help his own re-election campaign.

The race is CT-04 is tightening, with incumbent Rep. Christopher Shays (R) leading challenger Diane Farrell by only 44% to 40% according to a new Univ. of Connecticut poll.

In PA-10, a Lycoming College poll puts challenger Chris Carney (D) ahead of incumbent Rep. Don Sherwood (R) (the guy who choked his ex-girlfriend) 47% to 38%.

Over in the Senate, there are five new polls today, but only one interesting one. Middle Tennessee State University just released a poll showing former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker leading Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. 43% to 42%. This result is quite different than yesterday's but this race is likely to see-saw back and forth for a while.

The other polls confirm well known results: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) is 28% ahead in California, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) is 27% ahead in Florida, Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) is an astounding 46% ahead in New Mexico, and Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is 37% ahead in Utah.

As of today, we have an incredibly tight race in each chamber of Congress. The Republicans are ahead 50 to 49 in the Senate, with New Jersey, which hasn't elected a Republican senator in decades, currently a tie. If Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) pulls it off, we will have a 50-50 Senate, which will mean no more hunting for ducks, quail, and lawyers for Dick Cheney. He'll be needed to break ties all the time.

The best prediction for the house is 217 to 217, with one tie (NM-01). All in all, it couldn't get much closer. Stay tuned for more action, and tell all your friends about this site. If you have a blog or Website, please click on "For bloggers" above for some icons you can use.

Projected New House*: 217 Democrats 217 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.

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-- The Votemaster