Projected New Senate: 49 Democrats 50 Republicans 1 tie

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (5)
	Barely Dem (3)
	Exactly tied (1)
	Barely GOP (2)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (47)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Oct. 03	New polls:	CA MD MO NJ PA RI TN VA WA
	Pickups:	Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee

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News from the Votemaster

Lots of new Senate polls in key states today. First let's look at Rasmussen. He has Rep. Harold Ford (D) leading former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker (R) 48% to 43%, the largest lead Ford has ever had. Rasmussen also has a poll in Virginia showing that incumbent Sen. George Allen (R-VA) has recovered from the macaca incident and is now leading Jim Webb 49% to 43%.

Mason-Dixon has seven new polls today, so it is easier to present them in table form:

State	Democrat	Dem %	Republican	GOP %
California	Dianne Feinstein*	53%	Dick Mountjoy	23%
Maryland	Ben Cardin	47%	Michael Steele	41%
Missouri	Claire McCaskill	43%	Jim Talent*	43%
New Jersey	Bob Menendez*	44%	Tom Kean, Jr.	41%
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey	49%	Rick Santorum*	40%
Rhode Island	Sheldon Whitehouse	42%	Lincoln Chafee*	41%
Washington	Maria Cantwell*	50%	Mike McGavick	40%

The interesting ones are Missouri, which is now a tie (Talent was ahead), New Jersey, where Menendez has now got a small lead, and Rhode Island, where Chafee is pulling even with Whitehouse and has a chance to hang onto his job. As usual, note that many of the values used for the map are averages of multiple polls taken within a week of the most recent one.

The Foley case continues to draw attention far beyond FL-16. The FBI is now investigating the case. The Florida Republican party has named state representative Joe Negron, a 45-year-old lawyer as their candidate in FL-16. Although this district is heavily Republican, Florida law makes it impossible to replace Foley's name on the ballot so close to the election, so Negron will have to tell the voters to vote for Foley. While a vote for Foley is actually a vote for Negron, many voters may not realize this and not vote for Foley out of disgust with his behavior.

Projected New House*: 216 Democrats 218 Republicans 1 Tie

* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

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