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New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (46)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Nov. 22 Pickups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia RSS

News from the Votemaster

It is now official: Jean Schmidt (R) won reelection in OH-02 over Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt is the freshman congresswoman who called John Murtha (R-PA), a 38-year veteran of the Marine Corps, a coward. I had already noted her as the winner. I have also noted Deborah Pryce as the winner in her Ohio House race. Furthermore, John Barrow (D) has now been declared the winner in GA-12 over Max Burns (R). This means that the election was a shutout: No incumbent Democrat running for reelection in the Senate, House, or a governor's mansion was defeated. Every Democrat who tried to be relected for these offices was. I don't think this has ever happened before. Even in 1994, a few incumbent Republicans were beaten.

The races still to be decided are FL-13 , NC-08 , and TX-23 . All are held by Republicans, so even if the Republicans win all three of them, it will still be a shutout.

The Wall Street Journal has a comparison of how well the pollsters did on the Senate races. See also my table on Nov. 12. Briefly summarized, here are the results for the Senate:

Arizona - Kyl (R) by 9%: all pollsters within MoE
Maryland - Cardin (D) by 11%: Zogby close; rest underestimated Cardin
Michigan - Stabenow (D) by 16%: Rasmussen perfect, EPIC good; Zogby, SUSA too low
Minnesota - Klobuchar (D) by 20%: everybody underestimated her
Missouri - McCaskill (D) by 2%: Everybody within MoE
Montana - Tester (D) by 1%: Everybody within MoE
New Jersey - Menendez (D) by 8%: M-D a bit too low; rest within MoE
Ohio - Brown (D) by 12%: Rasmussen perfect; SUSA too high; Zogby too low
Pennsylvania - Casey (D) by 18%: Everybody underestimated Casey
Rhode Island - Whitehouse (D) by 6%: Rasmussen good; Zogby too high; M-D too low
Tennessee - Corker (R) by 3%: M-D and Zogby expected bigger Corker wins; rest ok
Virginia - Webb (D) by 1%: Zogby, M-D perfect; rest, slightly off
Washington - Cantwell (D) by 19%: everybody underestimated her; M-D came closest

All in all, the pollsters did quite well this time.

Projected New House:     232 Democrats     200 Republicans     3 Ties

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-02 CT-05 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02 KY-03 MN-01 NC-11 NH-01 NH-02 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 OH-18 PA-04 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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