New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Wyoming Strong Republican Groutage (D): 30% Thomas* (R): 70% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Wisconsin Strong Democrat Kohl* (D): 67% Lorge (R): 30% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) West Virginia Strong Democrat Byrd* (D): 64% Raese (R): 34% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Washington Strong Democrat Cantwell* (D): 57% McGavick (R): 40% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Virginia Barely Democrat Webb (D): 50% Allen* (R): 49% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Vermont Strong Democrat Sanders (D) (I): 65% Tarrant (R): 32% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Vermont Strong Democrat Sanders (D) (I): 65% Tarrant (R): 32% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Utah Strong Republican Ashdown (D): 31% Hatch* (R): 62% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Texas Strong Republican Radnofsky (D): 36% Hutchison* (R): 62% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Tennessee Barely Republican Ford (D): 48% Corker (R): 51% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) South Dakota No Senate election South Carolina No Senate election Rhode Island Weak Democrat Whitehouse (D): 53% Chafee* (R): 47% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Rhode Island Weak Democrat Whitehouse (D): 53% Chafee* (R): 47% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Pennsylvania Strong Democrat Casey (D): 59% Santorum* (R): 41% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Oregon No Senate election Oklahoma No Senate election Ohio Strong Democrat Brown (D): 56% DeWine* (R): 44% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) North Dakota Strong Democrat Conrad* (D): 69% Grotberg (R): 29% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) North Carolina No Senate election New York Strong Democrat Clinton* (D): 67% Spencer (R): 31% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) New Mexico Strong Democrat Bingaman* (D): 70% McCulloch (R): 30% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) New Jersey Weak Democrat Menendez* (D): 53% Kean (R): 45% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) New Jersey Weak Democrat Menendez* (D): 53% Kean (R): 45% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) New Hampshire No Senate election New Hampshire No Senate election Nevada Strong Republican Carter (D): 41% Ensign* (R): 55% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Nebraska Strong Democrat Nelson* (D): 64% Ricketts (R): 36% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Montana Barely Democrat Tester (D): 50% Burns* (R): 49% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Missouri Barely Democrat McCaskill (D): 50% Talent* (R): 47% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Mississippi Strong Republican Fleming (D): 35% Lott* (R): 64% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Minnesota Strong Democrat Klobuchar (D): 58% Kennedy (R): 38% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Michigan Strong Democrat Stabenow* (D): 57% Bouchard: 41% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Massachusetts Strong Democrat Kennedy* (D): 69% Chase: 31% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Massachusetts Strong Democrat Kennedy* (D): 69% Chase: 31% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Maryland Strong Democrat Cardin (D): 54% Steele (R): 44% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Maryland Strong Democrat Cardin (D): 54% Steele (R): 44% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Maine Strong Republican Bright (D): 21% Snowe* (R): 74% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Louisiana No Senate election Kentucky No Senate election Kansas No Senate election Iowa No Senate election Indiana Strong Republican (unopposed): 0% Lugar* (R): 87% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Illinois No Senate election Idaho No Senate election Hawaii Strong Democrat Akaka* (D): 63% Thielen (R): 35% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Georgia No Senate election Florida Strong Democrat Nelson* (D): 60% Harris (R): 38% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) D.C. D.C. residents have no senators D.C. D.C. residents have no senators Delaware Strong Democrat Carper* (D): 70% Ting (R): 29% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Delaware Strong Democrat Carper* (D): 70% Ting (R): 29% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Connecticut Three-way race Lamont (D): 40% Schlesinger (R): 10% Lieberman* (I): 50% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Connecticut Three-way race Lamont (D): 40% Schlesinger (R): 10% Lieberman* (I): 50% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Colorado No Senate election California Strong Democrat Feinstein* (D): 60% Mountjoy (R): 35% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Arkansas No Senate election Arizona Weak Republican Pederson (D): 44% Kyl* (R): 53% Source: Election 2006 (Nov 08) Alaska No Senate election Alabama No Senate election

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (46) Weak Dem (2) Barely Dem (3) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (1) Weak GOP (1) Strong GOP (47) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Nov. 13

Pickups:

Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia

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News from the Votemaster

Yesterday we looked at how well the Senate pollsters did. Today we will look at the House pollsters. Below is a table that gives the final vote in column 2, followed by the results of 5 pollsters. Each cell consists of the Democratic percentage minus the Repubican percentage. For example, in AR-02, the Democrat - Republican value is 22, meaning the Democrat won by 22%. The last poll from SurveyyUSA predicted a Democratic win by 21%. The data is available in .csv format.

To see how well a pollster did, we can subtract the actual vote from the prediction. For example, in the table below, if we subtract from SurveyyUSA's prediction for AR-02 (21) the actual vote total (22) we get -1. In other words, Mason-Dixon predicted that the Democrat would do 1% worse than he actually did. A perfect pollster would have a column consisting entirely of 0s. Since the margin of error in predicting each candidate's score is about 4%, the margin of error in predicting the difference is about 8%. Thus to a first approximation, any number less than or equal to 8 should be considered a correct prediction. Anything more than 8 is wrong. However, using the standard 95% level of confidence, about 1 in 20 polls should be "wrong." A negative number means the Democrat did better than expected. A positive one means the Democrat did worse than expected.

Projected New House:     230 Democrats     197 Republicans     8 Ties

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