New Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans
News from the Votemaster
Yesterday we looked at how well the Senate pollsters did. Today we will look at the House pollsters. Below is a table that gives the final vote in column 2, followed by the results of 5 pollsters. Each cell consists of the Democratic percentage minus the Repubican percentage. For example, in AR-02, the Democrat - Republican value is 22, meaning the Democrat won by 22%. The last poll from SurveyyUSA predicted a Democratic win by 21%. The data is available in .csv format.
To see how well a pollster did, we can subtract the actual vote from the prediction. For example, in the table below, if we subtract from SurveyyUSA's prediction for AR-02 (21) the actual vote total (22) we get -1. In other words, Mason-Dixon predicted that the Democrat would do 1% worse than he actually did. A perfect pollster would have a column consisting entirely of 0s. Since the margin of error in predicting each candidate's score is about 4%, the margin of error in predicting the difference is about 8%. Thus to a first approximation, any number less than or equal to 8 should be considered a correct prediction. Anything more than 8 is wrong. However, using the standard 95% level of confidence, about 1 in 20 polls should be "wrong." A negative number means the Democrat did better than expected. A positive one means the Democrat did worse than expected.
Projected New House: 230 Democrats 197 Republicans 8 Ties
Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-05 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02 KY-03 MN-01 NC-11 NH-01 NH-02 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 OH-18 PA-04 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08
See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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-- The Votemaster