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New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    


 
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strong Dem Strong Dem (46)
weak Dem Weak Dem (2)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (1)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
Nov. 12 Pickups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia RSS


News from the Votemaster

Let's take a look at how the Senate pollsters did. Below is a table that gives the final vote in column 2, followed by the results of 8 pollsters. Each cell consists of the Democratic percentage minus the Repubican percentage. For example, in Arizona, the Democrat - Republican value is -9, meaning the Republican won by 9%. In California, the last poll from Mason-Dixon predicted a Democratic win by 30% (it was actually only 24%). For purposes of these tables, Lieberman is a Republican and Sanders is a Democrat so I can reduce each race to a single number. The data is available in .csv format.

State Vote Gallup M-D Polimetrix Quinn. Ras. Res. 2000 SurveyUSA Zogby
Arizona -9 -8 -4 -9 -13 -8
California 24 30 32 23 29
Connecticut -10 -4 -12 -8 -12 -11 -12
Delaware 41
Florida 22 24 26 35 17 18 23 29
Hawaii 24
Indiana -87
Maine -53 -46
Maryland 10 15 3 6 5 3 5
Massachusetts 38 40 30
Michigan 16 16 15 16 11 10 7
Minnesota 20 10 10 18 14 16 8
Mississippi -29 -37
Missouri 3 4 1 0 -1 0 6 3
Montana 1 9 0 2 1
Nebraska 28 20
Nevada -14 -17 -11 -12 -14 -21
New Jersey 8 10 7 6 5 5 6 12
New Mexico 42 24 20
New York 36 35 30 24
North Dakota 40 22
Ohio 12 2 6 18 12 12 12 7
Pennsylvania 18 18 13 16 10 13 8
Rhode Island 6 3 -1 8 14
Tennessee -3 -3 -12 -5 -4 -5 -10
Texas -26 -36 -26 -19
Utah -31 -30 -32
Vermont 33 32 21
Virginia 0.2 -3 1 0 0 8 1
Washington 17 16 14 11 8 4
West Virginia 30 34 33
Wisconsin 37 45 27 9
Wyoming -40 -41 -27

To see how well a pollster did, we can subtract the actual difference between the candidates from the predicted on. For example, in the table below, if we subtract from Mason-Dixon's prediction for Arizona (-8) the actual vote total (-9) we get 1. In other words, Mason-Dixon predicted that the Democrat would do 1% better than he actually did. A perfect pollster would have a column consisting entirely of 0s. Since the margin of error in predicting each candidate's score is about 4%, the margin of error in predicting the difference is about 8%. Thus to a first approximation, any number less than or equal to 8 should be considered a correct prediction. Anything more than 8 is wrong. However, using the standard 95% level of confidence, about 1 in 20 polls should be "wrong."

State Gallup M-D Polimetrix Quinn. Ras. Res. 2000 SurveyUSA Zogby
Arizona 1 5 0 -4 1
California 6 8 -1 5
Connecticut 6 -2 2 -2 -1 -2
Delaware
Florida 2 4 13 -5 -4 1 7
Hawaii
Indiana
Maine 7
Maryland 5 -7 -4 -5 -7 -5
Massachusetts 2 -8
Michigan 0 -1 0 -5 -6 -9
Minnesota -10 -10 -2 -6 -4 -12
Mississippi -8
Missouri 1 -2 -3 -4 -3 3 0
Montana 8 -1 1 0
Nebraska -8
Nevada -3 3 2 0 -7
New Jersey 2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 4
New Mexico -18 -22
New York -1 -6 -12
North Dakota -18
Ohio -10 -6 6 0 0 0 -5
Pennsylvania 0 -5 -2 -8 -5 -10
Rhode Island -3 -7 2 8
Tennessee 0 -9 -2 -1 -2 -7
Texas -10 0 7
Utah 1 -1
Vermont -1 -12
Virginia -3 0 0 0 7 0
Washington -1 -3 -6 -9 -13
West Virginia 4 3
Wisconsin 8 -10 -28
Wyoming -1 13

Finally, let us see what the gurus predicted for the Senate. Here are the results from the Nov 7 Web page. The first number is the number of Democrats, then the number of Republicans, then the number of tossups (if present). As you can see, the polling algorithm used on this site got it perfect (every state right), but I was chicken and didn't want to call Montana and Virginia, even though the data predicted a Democratic win in both Montana and Virginia.

Guru Actual vote Prediction
Congressional Quarterly 51-49 48-48-4
Charlie Cook 51-49 49-49-2
Stu Rothenberg 51-49 51-49
Larry Sabato 51-49 51-49
Chuck Todd 51-49 (Note 1)
Electoral-vote.com 51-49 51-49
Votemaster 51-49 49-49-2

Note 1: Either 48-52 or 52-48 but not in between.

I may not be able to get to the computer for a couple of days, but I will try to do this analysis for the House sooner or later.


Projected New House*:     230 Democrats     197 Republicans     8 Ties
See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-05 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IA-02 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02 KY-03 MN-01 NC-11 NH-01 NH-02 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 OH-18 PA-04 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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