Projected New Senate: 51 Democrats 49 Republicans
|
|
| Nov. 07 | New polls: | AZ CA CT FL MA MD MI MN MO MT NJ NV OH PA RI TN TX UT VA WA WI WV |  |
| Pickups: | Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Virginia |
Welcome
General FAQ
Polling FAQ
Votemaster FAQ
Donations
All Senate races
Hot House races
Poll Graphs
More election data
Senate info
Political websites
Articles and books
2004 Election
EVP track record
Political humor
For bloggers
Animated map
Contribute a pageNews from the Votemaster
I'll try to update the site with election results in easy-to-read tables starting around 9 pm EST, so check back later.
Political Wire has a list of poll closing times.
Here are the final polls.
Senate Polls
We have 39 Senate polls today, including a large batch from Polimetrix, but also quite a few from Gallup, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA. Once again as a reminder, the algorithm used for the Senate is to average all polls during the last week. The map is colored based on this average.
The key states are Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. I think Bob Corker (R) is pulling away from Harold Ford, Jr. (D) in Tennessee. The racist ad worked. In Missouri, I have the feelin that McCaskill (D) is just a bit ahead of Talent (R), but it is too close to call, as is Virginia. Turnout will be crucial. Here is the data.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Date | Len | Dem | GOP | Ind | Pollster |
| Arizona | Jim Pederson | Jon Kyl* | Nov 05 | 10 | 46% | 50% | Polimetrix | |
| California | Dianne Feinstein* | Dick Mountjoy | Nov 05 | 10 | 61% | 29% | Polimetrix | |
| Conn. | Ned Lamont | Alan Schlesinger | Nov 05 | 6 | 38% | 8% | 50% | Quinnipiac U. |
| Conn. | Ned Lamont | Alan Schlesinger | Nov 05 | 10 | 44% | 5% | 48% | Polimetrix |
| Florida | Bill Nelson* | Katherine Harris | Nov 05 | 10 | 60% | 34% | Polimetrix | |
| Maryland | Ben Cardin | Michael Steele | Nov 06 | 4 | 49% | 46% | SurveyUSA | |
| Maryland | Ben Cardin | Michael Steele | Nov 05 | 10 | 51% | 45% | Polimetrix | |
| Mass. | Ted Kennedy* | Ken Chase | Nov 05 | 10 | 67% | 27% | Polimetrix | |
| Michigan | Debbie Stabenow* | Mike Bouchard | Nov 05 | 10 | 55% | 40% | Polimetrix | |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Mark Kennedy | Nov 05 | 3 | 56% | 40% | SurveyUSA | |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | Mark Kennedy | Nov 05 | 10 | 57% | 39% | Polimetrix | |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Jim Talent* | Nov 05 | 1 | 48% | 49% | Rasmussen | |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Jim Talent* | Nov 06 | 3 | 50% | 44% | SurveyUSA | |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Jim Talent* | Nov 05 | 3 | 51% | 42% | SurveyUSA | |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Jim Talent* | Nov 04 | 4 | 49% | 45% | Gallup | |
| Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Jim Talent* | Nov 05 | 10 | 57% | 39% | Polimetrix | |
| Montana | Jon Tester | Conrad Burns* | Nov 04 | 4 | 50% | 41% | Gallup | |
| Nevada | Jack Carter | John Ensign* | Nov 05 | 10 | 42% | 53% | Polimetrix | |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez* | Tom Kean, Jr. | Nov 04 | 4 | 50% | 40% | Gallup | |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez* | Tom Kean, Jr. | Nov 05 | 7 | 48% | 43% | Quinnipiac U. | |
| New Jersey | Bob Menendez* | Tom Kean, Jr. | Nov 05 | 10 | 53% | 47% | Polimetrix | |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Mike DeWine* | Nov 05 | 3 | 54% | 42% | SurveyUSA | |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Mike DeWine* | Nov 05 | 5 | 56% | 44% | U. of Cincinnati | |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Mike DeWine* | Nov 05 | 10 | 58% | 40% | Polimetrix | |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey | Rick Santorum* | Nov 05 | 10 | 56% | 40% | Polimetrix | |
| Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse | Lincoln Chafee* | Nov 04 | 4 | 48% | 45% | Gallup | |
| Tennessee | Harold Ford | Bob Corker | Nov 04 | 1 | 47% | 51% | Rasmussen | |
| Tennessee | Harold Ford | Bob Corker | Nov 05 | 3 | 46% | 51% | SurveyUSA | |
| Tennessee | Harold Ford | Bob Corker | Nov 04 | 4 | 46% | 49% | Gallup | |
| Tennessee | Harold Ford | Bob Corker | Nov 05 | 10 | 46% | 51% | Polimetrix | |
| Texas | Barbara Radnofsky | Kay Hutchison* | Nov 05 | 10 | 29% | 65% | Polimetrix | |
| Utah | Pete Ashdown | Orrin Hatch* | Nov 05 | 10 | 34% | 66% | Polimetrix | |
| Utah | Pete Ashdown | Orrin Hatch* | Nov 02 | 7 | 28% | 62% | Dan Jones | |
| Virginia | Jim Webb | George Allen* | Nov 05 | 3 | 52% | 44% | SurveyUSA | |
| Virginia | Jim Webb | George Allen* | Nov 04 | 4 | 46% | 49% | Gallup | |
| Virginia | Jim Webb | George Allen* | Nov 05 | 10 | 50% | 50% | Polimetrix | |
| Washington | Maria Cantwell* | Mike McGavick | Nov 05 | 10 | 57% | 43% | Polimetrix | |
| West Virginia | Robert Byrd* | John Raese | Nov 05 | 10 | 67% | 33% | Polimetrix | |
| Wisconsin | Herb Kohl* | Robert Lorge | Nov 05 | 10 | 69% | 24% | Polimetrix |
House Polls
Over in the House we have eight polls. In AZ-08 , Gabrielle Giffords (D) is virtually certain to pick up a Republican seat in a district that has a long border with Mexico and in which immigration was a hot issue.
In KY-03 , it looks like John Yarmouth (D) is going to unseat Anne Northup (R), but Geoff Davis may hang on in KY-04 due to his huge advertising budget.
In NH-02 , we may have a surprise upset, with Paul Hodes (D), beating incumbent Charlie Bass (R). In NH-01, the incumbent, Jeb Bradley (R), will stave off insurgent Carol Shea-Porter (D).
NY-26 looks close, but there were some methodological issues here.
Finally, quite surprisingly, in WA-08 , Darcy Burner (D) has closed the gap with incumbent Dave Reichert (R). It could go either way.
| Cong. Distr. | Democrat | Republican | Date | Len | Dem | GOP | Ind | Pollster |
| AZ-08 | Gabrielle Giffords | Randy Graf | Oct 28 | 4 | 50% | 35% | Wick | |
| KY-03 | John Yarmuth | Anne Northup* | Nov 05 | 3 | 50% | 45% | SurveyUSA | |
| KY-04 | Ken Lucas | Geoff Davis* | Nov 05 | 3 | 43% | 49% | SurveyUSA | |
| NH-01 | Carol Shea-Porter | Jeb Bradley* | Nov 05 | 4 | 40% | 49% | Granite State Poll | |
| NH-02 | Paul Hodes | Charlie Bass* | Nov 05 | 4 | 48% | 39% | Granite State Poll | |
| NM-01 | Patricia Madrid | Heather Wilson* | Nov 05 | 3 | 50% | 48% | SurveyUSA | |
| NY-26 | Jack Davis | Tom Reynolds* | Nov 01 | 2 | 46% | 47% | Zogby | |
| WA-08 | Darcy Burner | Dave Reichert* | Nov 05 | 3 | 49% | 49% | SurveyUSA |
Politics
Here are the final predictions.
| Guru | Senate | House |
| Congressional Quarterly | 48-48-4 | 212-199-24 |
| Charlie Cook | 49-49-2 | 223-197-15 |
| Stu Rothenberg | 51-49 | 233-196-6 |
| Larry Sabato | 51-49 | 232-203 |
| Chuck Todd | (Note 1) | (Note 2) |
| Electoral-vote.com | 51-49 | 241-193-1 |
| Votemaster | 49-49-2 | 235-200 |
| Election 2006 | ? | ? |
Note 1: Either 48-52 or 52-48, not in between
Note 2: Either 219-214-2 or 233-197-5, not in between
Projected New House*: 239 Democrats 195 Republicans 1 Tie
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 ID-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 KY-03 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08
GOP pickups:
See the details of the
Senate and
House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
If you like this site, please announce it to news groups and blogs and tell your friends about it. If you have your own blog, please click on "For bloggers" above.
-- The Votemaster
