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Projected New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel
Battleground states
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strong Dem Strong Dem (44)
weak Dem Weak Dem (4)
barely Dem Barely Dem (3)
tied Exactly tied (0)
barely GOP Barely GOP (0)
weak GOP Weak GOP (2)
strong GOP Strong GOP (47)
No Senate race No Senate race
  Map algorithm explained
  Pickups: Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Virginia

News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Which party do you want to control Congress?
Democrats Republicans Divided Congress   

Senate Polls

Another bumper crop of Senate polls--15 in all. The most surprising one is in Maryland, where a SurveyUSA poll has Rep. Ben Cardin (D) and Lt. Gov Michael Steele (R) tied at 47% each. Steele has been campaigning very hard in the African-American community and may have succeeded in picking up some support from this normally very Democratic group. But numerous other polls in Maryland have shown Cardin ahead.

Missouri and Virginia are still statistical ties and probably will continue to be until Tuesday, and maybe beyond if recounts are needed in these close races.

In contrast, in Tennessee, Bob Corker's bimbo ad may have worked. He appears to have gained the advantage over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. He hadn't played the race card until now, but it seems to be helping him.

The other polls are consistent with earlier results.

State Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Nov 02 3 40% 53%   SurveyUSA
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Oct 30 6 41% 46%   Zimmerman
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Nov 01 3 39% 7% 51% Research 2000
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Nov 01 2 58% 34%   Mason-Dixon
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Nov 03 4 47% 47%   SurveyUSA
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Nov 01 3 51% 38%   EPIC-MRA
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Nov 02 1 49% 48%   Rasmussen
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 01 1 50% 46%   Rasmussen
Nevada Jack Carter John Ensign* Oct 30 5 37% 54%   Mason-Dixon
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 01 1 48% 43%   Rasmussen
New York Hillary Clinton* John Spencer Nov 01 3 65% 28%   Siena Coll.
New York Hillary Clinton* John Spencer Nov 01 3 66% 32%   Marist
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Nov 01 4 51% 43%   Muhlenberg Coll.
Tennessee Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 02 1 45% 53%   Rasmussen
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Nov 02 1 49% 49%   Rasmussen

House Polls

Over in the House, there is a bit a good cheer for the GOP. Mike Sodrel (R), a former truck driver who drives an 18-wheeler around the state campaigning, has retaken the lead from former congressman Baron Hill (D) who is trying to get his old job back. Hill had been leading for several weeks.

On the other hand, CO-04 is a tossup. Marilyn Musgrave (R), one of the staunchest opponents of illegal immigration is in a surprisingly tight race with Angie Paccione (D).

In other good news for the Democrats, Larry Grant (D) has a small lead of 4% over Bill Sali (R) for the ID-01 House seat being vacated by Bruce Otter (R), who is running for governor. This is not a seat the Republicans had expected to put much effort into, let alone lose, even in a big Democratic wave.

Cong. Distr. Democrat Republican Date     Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
CA-04 Charles Brown John Doolittle* Nov 03 3 43% 50%   SurveyUSA
CO-04 Angie Paccione Marilyn Musgrave* Nov 02 3 43% 44%   SurveyUSA
ID-01 Larry Grant Bill Sali Nov 01 8 38% 34%   Greg Smith
IN-09 Baron Hill Mike Sodrel* Nov 03 4 44% 46%   SurveyUSA
OH-06 Charlie Wilson Chuck Blasdel Nov 02 3 58% 39%   SurveyUSA
SD-AL Stephanie Herseth* Bruce Whalen Oct 26 3 66% 26%   Mason-Dixon


Researchers at Harvard have looked at the youth vote (18-24) and written a short report on their findings. Briefly summarized, expected turnout, although pitiful (32%), will be better than usual, and highly Democratic. The young voters give President Bush a D+ grade on Iraq and a C- overall and think it is time for a change. If the Democrats could mobilize these young, but apathetic, voters, they could win big time. Is giving out free beer in front of polling places legal?

On the sleaze front, disgraced Congressman Bob Ney (R-OH) has finally resigned from Congress after pleading guilty to taking money from Jack Abramoff in return for favors.

In other sleaze news, Ted Haggard, the head of the National Association of Evangelicals until yesterday, when he resigned after word got out that he had been hiring a gay prostitute for 3 years now admits that he bought methamphetamine. However, he says he never used it. What a dodo. Why pay good money for drugs and not use them? That's as stupid as Bill Clinton paying good money for marijuana and not inhaling. Advice to politicians: it is better not to buy drugs at all, but if you must buy them, use them. It makes you look uncool to buy the drugs and then flush them down the toilet. You're never going to get the 18-24 year olds to vote for you that way.

Projected New House*:     240 Democrats     195 Republicans
* Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results have been used. See complete House polls.

Dem pickups: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 ID-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

GOP pickups:
Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 Senate election, House election, election 2006 See the details of the Senate and House races with photos, maps, links, polls, etc.
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