Projected New Senate:     51 Democrats     49 Republicans    

Polling data in Excel Battleground states Previous report Next report News Strong Dem (44) Weak Dem (4) Barely Dem (3) Exactly tied (0) Barely GOP (0) Weak GOP (2) Strong GOP (47) No Senate race   Map algorithm explained

Nov. 04	New polls:	AZ CT FL MD MI MO MT NJ NV NY PA TN VA
	Pickups:	Missouri Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Virginia

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News from the Votemaster

Poll of the Day

Senate Polls

Another bumper crop of Senate polls--15 in all. The most surprising one is in Maryland, where a SurveyUSA poll has Rep. Ben Cardin (D) and Lt. Gov Michael Steele (R) tied at 47% each. Steele has been campaigning very hard in the African-American community and may have succeeded in picking up some support from this normally very Democratic group. But numerous other polls in Maryland have shown Cardin ahead.

Missouri and Virginia are still statistical ties and probably will continue to be until Tuesday, and maybe beyond if recounts are needed in these close races.

In contrast, in Tennessee, Bob Corker's bimbo ad may have worked. He appears to have gained the advantage over Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. He hadn't played the race card until now, but it seems to be helping him.

The other polls are consistent with earlier results.

House Polls

Over in the House, there is a bit a good cheer for the GOP. Mike Sodrel (R), a former truck driver who drives an 18-wheeler around the state campaigning, has retaken the lead from former congressman Baron Hill (D) who is trying to get his old job back. Hill had been leading for several weeks.

On the other hand, CO-04 is a tossup. Marilyn Musgrave (R), one of the staunchest opponents of illegal immigration is in a surprisingly tight race with Angie Paccione (D).

In other good news for the Democrats, Larry Grant (D) has a small lead of 4% over Bill Sali (R) for the ID-01 House seat being vacated by Bruce Otter (R), who is running for governor. This is not a seat the Republicans had expected to put much effort into, let alone lose, even in a big Democratic wave.

Politics

Researchers at Harvard have looked at the youth vote (18-24) and written a short report on their findings. Briefly summarized, expected turnout, although pitiful (32%), will be better than usual, and highly Democratic. The young voters give President Bush a D+ grade on Iraq and a C- overall and think it is time for a change. If the Democrats could mobilize these young, but apathetic, voters, they could win big time. Is giving out free beer in front of polling places legal?

On the sleaze front, disgraced Congressman Bob Ney (R-OH) has finally resigned from Congress after pleading guilty to taking money from Jack Abramoff in return for favors.

In other sleaze news, Ted Haggard, the head of the National Association of Evangelicals until yesterday, when he resigned after word got out that he had been hiring a gay prostitute for 3 years now admits that he bought methamphetamine. However, he says he never used it. What a dodo. Why pay good money for drugs and not use them? That's as stupid as Bill Clinton paying good money for marijuana and not inhaling. Advice to politicians: it is better not to buy drugs at all, but if you must buy them, use them. It makes you look uncool to buy the drugs and then flush them down the toilet. You're never going to get the 18-24 year olds to vote for you that way.

Projected New House*:     240 Democrats     195 Republicans

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