Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 50 Republicans 2 ties

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (2)
	Barely GOP (1)
	Weak GOP (1)
	Strong GOP (48)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Aug. 23	New polls:	CT MI
	Pickups:	Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

The Connecticut primary, part II, has tightened a bit, with Lieberman's lead over Lamont only 2% now, 44% to 42% (ARG) or 45% to 43% (Rasmussen). Schlesinger/Gold is at 3% and 6% in these polls, respectively. This is about as safe as Democratic states go. The only state that is safer for either party is Indiana, where Dick Lugar (R-IN) is running unopposed.

In Michigan, incumbent Debbie Stabenow is maintaining her comfortable of 9% lead over Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, 42% to 51%.

In other polling action a New York Times poll released yesterday shows that 47% of the country want the Congress to be controlled by the Democrats and only 32% want it controlled by the Republicans. Bush's approval is at 36% and his approval is at 57%. In theory, these numbers spell disaster for the Republicans, but practice is often different from theory. For decades, there have been studies showing that even though people hate party X they continue to vote for senators and congresspersons from party X because they like the candidate. Richard Nixon was once informed about some atrocity or other the then-Shah of Iran had committed, accompanied by the remark "He's a real bastard." Nixon replied: "Yeah, but he's OUR bastard." What the Democrats have to do this Fall is tell the voters: "While your senator may be a nice person and capable of bringing home the bacon, having the Republicans in charge of the Senate has been a disaster for the country so vote for change." Conversely, the Republicans' message has to be: "Your senator has done an excellent job representing you so there is no reason to fire him." If the election goes national, the Democrats win; if it stays local, the Republicans win.

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-- The Votemaster