Projected New Senate: 48 Democrats 50 Republicans 2 ties

	Strong Dem (41)
	Weak Dem (6)
	Barely Dem (1)
	Exactly tied (2)
	Barely GOP (0)
	Weak GOP (2)
	Strong GOP (48)
	No Senate race
	Map algorithm explained

Aug. 21	New polls:	MO WI
	Pickups:	Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island

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News from the Votemaster

The pendulum keeps swinging in Missouri. Today Jim Talent is ahead of Claire McCaskill, 46% to 44%, well within the margin of error (nearly all the state polls have a MoE of 3-4%). Expect it to keep swinging until the election. This one may well be the closest of all the Senate races. However, note that the algorithm for generating the map looks at all the polls during the past 7 days and averages them, so what is shown on the map is the average of recent polls, not the last one. The actual averages are McCaskill 45.5%, Talent 46%, but it is misleading to work with numbers accurate to 1 decimal place when the data can be off as much as 4%, so the spreadsheet data are rounded to the nearest integer, giving 46-46, and the map is generated from the spreadsheet. Remember that any state with a white center is a statistical tie, even if the border is colored (none today).

In Wisconsin, Kohl is clobbering Lorge by a 28% margin. Lorge has no chance. I wonder what motivates people to take on races that are pointless (the Democratic contenders in Maine, Texas, Utah and Wyoming also come to mind).

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-- The Votemaster