Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 252 Bush 270
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| Sept. 2 | New polls: AL MI SD WI |
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News from the Votemaster
The biggest news today is that Bush is going to win Alabama and South Dakota by landslides, 20% in the former and 16% in the latter. If he gets on the ballot. Technically, candidates have to file in Alabama before Aug. 31 and the Republicans didn't have a candidate by Aug. 31. Maybe they will make an exception this time. The consequence of this large lead, of course, is that neither candidate will spend any money in these states and probably won't visit, until they decide to stump for or against Tom Daschle in the SD Senate race.
Perhaps a bit more interesting are three new polls in battleground states in the Midwest. They are from Peter Hart (MN) and Lake Snell Perry (MI, WI), both of whom normally work for Democrats. It is instructive to compare their results to the Strategic Vision polls of of Aug. 28, just three days later than the Minnesota poll and the day before the Michigan and Wisconsin polls. Does the pollster matter? You be the judge.
Peter Hart, Aug. 25 (MN) and Lake Snell Perry, Aug. 29 (MI, WI)
| State | Kerry | Bush | Nader |
| Michigan | 51 | 43 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 47 | 44 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 49 | 45 | 2 |
Strategic Vision poll, Aug. 28
| State | Kerry | Bush | Nader |
| Michigan | 45 | 42 | 3 |
| Minnesota | 47 | 46 | 1 |
| Wisconsin | 46 | 48 | 2 |
The Gallup Organization has a nice article giving 11 insights on the election.
I made a mistake with the dates of the Michigan and Wisconsin polls and made a rare midday correction. Sorry for the confusion.
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