Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 254
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| Oct. 23 | New polls: AL FL IA MI MN MO ND OH |
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Florida can't make up its collective mind. It's tied again. A new Insider Advantage poll puts the race there dead even, with Bush and Kerry each getting 46%. As a result, Kerry edges ahead nationally again, with 257 votes in the electoral college to Bush's 254. However, if we look at the strong+weak totals for each candidate, Bush leads 209 to 205, with 124 really too close to call. According to the latest polls, these are Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. However, in my judgement based on a number of recent polls rather than just the last one, Kerry will win New Jersey, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania. The others are true tossups. None are relative safe for Bush. If we count these three as Kerry wins, the "hard" totals are Kerry 246, Bush 209, still a tossup.
You think the election will take place Nov. 2? Think again. Over 1.8 million voters in the swing states alone have already cast their ballots, according to the Washington Post. Why stand in line on election day? Check with your county clerk to see if you can vote early and avoid the crowds. Many states allow early voting, either in person or by absentee ballot. I voted already; you may be able to as well.
When typing in the data on the Supreme Court justices, in three cases I accidentally typed in when they were appointed to the appellate court and by whom. For example, I listed Ruth Bader Ginsberg as being appointed by Carter in 1980. She WAS appointed by Carter in 1980--to the U.S. Court of Appeals. Sorry. I hope there won't be any more errors, but every morning I have a ton of information to process and, like, John Kerry, I read four or five newspapers (and a number of blogs), so it gets a bit hectic trying to get the site up by 7-8 a.m. Eastern time. One small request. If you find an error AFTER noon Eastern time, PLEASE DON'T report it. 500 other people will already have done so. If you ever write some document and can arrange for 600,000 proofreaders, I highly recommend it. You catch all the errors that way.
Many people wrote to me saying that Boston has two daily newspapers, the Globe, which is a respected broadsheet, and the Herald, which is a tabloid that makes Rupert Murdoch's New York Post look like a pinko commie rag. To avoid any confusion, it was the Herald that endorsed Bush. The Globe endorsed Kerry. Crawford, TX, has only one paper and it endorsed Bush in 2000 but Kerry in 2004. If reading goat entrails is too smelly and you are looking for a different way to predict the outcome, you could try counting newspaper endorsements. Kerry has 60 so far and Bush has 53, but the circulation of the Kerry endorsers is larger by a factor of 1.5.
I added a 7th server to the mix yesterday, www.electoral-vote7.com. I also added another gigabyte of RAM to the main servers at www.electoral-vote.com to be able to handle increased traffic as the election nears. Use that URL unless it fails--it is much faster and updated more quickly; then try the various backups. Unlike George Bush, I am not going to foolishly say "Bring 'em on" but I think there are strong defenses, both hardware and software, in place now. in case there are more attacks.
Projected Senate: 47 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 1 independent, 2 tossups
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