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Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 270   Bush 248

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electoral college strong kerry Strong Kerry (112)
electoral college weak kerry Weak Kerry (80)
electoral college barely kerry Barely Kerry (78)
electoral college tied Exactly tied (20)
electoral college barely bush Barely Bush (29)
electoral college weak bush Weak Bush (71)
electoral college strong bush Strong Bush (148)
Needed to win: 270
Oct. 10 New polls: FL LA MN WA RSS

News from the Votemaster

Not a lot of polling news today. Sundays are always slow. The Rasmussen tracking poll is now more recent than the Hart Research (D) poll we had yesterday, and it makes Minnesota an exact tie dropping Kerry to precisely the number of votes in the electoral college needed to win.

Senate News: I have re-evaluated the Senate races and come to the conclusion that based on all the polls the incumbents will win in Missouri, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. These are Kit Bond (R-MO), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Arlen Specter (R-PA). The Senate page has therefore been reorganized to focus on the tight races. The Democrats are defending five open seats and the Republicans are defending three open seats. In addition, incumbents in Alaska and South Dakota are in very tough races. Currently the Democrat is ahead in Alaska, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. The Republican is ahead in Georgia and South Carolina. Colorado is tied and Louisiana is hard to predict due to the quaint nature of its nonpartisan primary on Nov. 2 which will probably require a runoff in December. At present, my best guess is that Ken Salazar will pull off a small victory over Pete Coors in Colorado (he has led most of the race) and a Democrat will win in Louisiana (no Republican has ever been elected to the Senate from Louisiana in history), which would result in a new Senate with 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 1 Independent who usually votes with the Democrats.

And, as usual on Sundays, we have a new cartoon of the week

Projected Senate: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 independent, 1 tossup
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-- The votemaster

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Statistics Collector (via University of Kentucky)