State-by-State Margins Nov. 4


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 81%
Massachusetts 25%
Rhode Island 21%
Vermont 20%
New York 18%
Maryland 13%
Illinois 11%
Hawaii 11%
Connecticut 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
California 9%
Maine 8%
Washington 7%
New Jersey 7%
Delaware 7%
Oregon 6%
Minnesota 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Michigan 3%
Pennsylvania 2%
Wisconsin 1%
New Hampshire 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 46%
Wyoming 40%
Idaho 40%
Nebraska 35%
Oklahoma 32%
North Dakota 27%
Kansas 27%
Alaska 26%
Alabama 25%
Texas 23%
South Dakota 23%
Indiana 21%
Montana 20%
Mississippi 20%
Kentucky 20%
Georgia 18%
South Carolina 17%
Louisiana 15%
Tennessee 14%
North Carolina 14%
West Virginia 13%
Arizona 11%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Arkansas 9%
Virginia 8%
Missouri 8%
Colorado 6%
Florida 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Nevada 3%
Ohio 2%
New Mexico 1%
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