State-by-State Margins Nov. 1


The numbers in the table tell who is leading and by how much. For example, if a state poll gives Kerry 51% and Bush 48%, the lead will be shown as 3%. When this lead is 5% or less, the race is essentially a tie.

Strong Kerry (≥10%)
D.C. 67%
New York 18%
Massachusetts 14%
Vermont 13%
Rhode Island 13%
Illinois 12%
Maryland 11%
Connecticut 10%
Weak Kerry (5-9%)
Washington 9%
New Jersey 8%
Maine 8%
Wisconsin 7%
Michigan 7%
Delaware 7%
California 7%
Oregon 6%
Iowa 6%
Minnesota 5%
Barely Kerry (<5%)
Pennsylvania 4%
Ohio 2%
Florida 1%
Strong Bush (≥10%)
Utah 45%
Wyoming 36%
Oklahoma 30%
Nebraska 29%
Idaho 29%
Alaska 27%
Louisiana 26%
Kansas 23%
Texas 22%
South Dakota 22%
Montana 21%
Kentucky 21%
North Dakota 20%
Indiana 19%
Tennessee 18%
Alabama 18%
Arizona 15%
South Carolina 14%
Georgia 12%
North Carolina 10%
Weak Bush (5-9%)
Mississippi 9%
West Virginia 8%
Arkansas 8%
Nevada 5%
Missouri 5%
Barely Bush (<5%)
Virginia 4%
Hawaii 1%
Colorado 1%
States that are exactly tied: New Hampshire New Mexico
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