Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 327
Bush 211
| Aug. 16 |
New polls: (none) |
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News from the Votemaster
No new state polls today. Polls are rarely released on
Sundays. If you didn't check the site during the weekend,
click on "Previous report" to the left of the map
as there were some polls reported
Saturday and Sunday. A new movie was also released. Lots of
suspense but the acting is so-so.
Just so your visit today is not entirely in vain, here are
the results of five national polls, for what they are worth.
| Dates | Pollster | Kerry | Bush | Nader |
| Aug. 12-14 | Zogby | 47 | 43 | 2 |
| Aug. 6-12 | Rasmussen | 48 | 46 | - |
| Aug. 9-11 | The Economist | 48 | 44 | 1 |
| Aug. 9-11 | Gallup | 45 | 46 | 5 |
| Aug. 5-10 | Pew | 47 | 45 | 2 |
If you want to see all the national polls since the beginning of
July, click here.
In this list, of the 20 most recent national polls, Kerry has been ahead
17 times, Bush twice, and once it was a tie.
In case you missed the news, the
presidential debate schedule has now been set. With the race so close,
the debates could have a decisive impact. If you look closely, you will
see that all four debates are being held at universities. Will this favor
Kerry, who is widely perceived as an intellectual, or will it have precisely
the opposite effect, boosting Bush's credibility as an intellectual?
Also note that two debates are in biggest battleground states of the Midwest (Missouri
and Ohio), one is in the Mother of All Battleground States, Florida, and the final
one is in the Biggest Battleground in the West, Arizona. I can assure you
that the chance these four particular states were chosen at random is outside
the margin of error. Also, the order and format is not random. The first debate,
which will get the most attention, is on domestic policy, Kerry's forte. The last
debate, which people will remember most clearly on Nov. 2 is on foreign policy,
Bush's strength. The one in the middle is a town hall format, which may give
Bush a slight edge since he is widely perceived as a folksy, friendly kinda guy.
On the other hand, audience questions are unpredictable, so broad knowledge of
current affairs is a plus here.
Probably neither candidate will wear a watch to avoid the most famous watch-looking
event in the history of the world, the one that cost George H.W. Bush his reelection in 1992.
To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right.
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-- The votemaster
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