Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 307 Bush 231
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| Aug. 8 | New polls: NJ NM |
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News from the Votemaster
The featured poll today is a special poll of New Mexico commissioned by Libertarian party candidate Michael Badnarik and conducted by Scott Rasmussen on Aug. 4. The result is Kerry 50%, Bush 43%, Badnarik 5%, a surprisingly strong showing by him. If pollsters regularly asked Kerry/Bush/Badnarik instead of Kerry/Bush/Nader, Badnarik might do better. That might actually affect the election since Nader sucks votes almost entirely from Kerry whereas Badnarik is much more of an equal-opportunity gadfly drawing from both sides. Could the questions asked by the pollsters actually change the election results? Time for a Ph.D. thesis on Heisenberg's principle ("observing the system changes the system") as applied to politics. No change in the electoral college as New Mexico was already leaning to Kerry, only now the lead is a bit more solid. A new poll in New Jersey reconfirms Kerry's large lead there.
I have made some small changes to the layout of the site, including adding a site map to the Welcome page. A new page collects links to various articles and books in one place. Also all the Pro-Kerry material is now located in the third row of menu items below the map. Everything else is strictly nonpartisan. A Google search box has also been added to the bottom of the page in case anyone feels an urgent need to search. Google is extremely clever (in case you didn't know). It even searches all the spreadsheets. Try searching the site for Mason-Dixon.
If anyone has links with useful election data for the More data page please let me know. These should be strictly nonpartisan, such as county-by-county maps of the 1996 or earlier elections, etc.
A new cartoon of the week is now available.
At one point I toyed with the idea of holding a mock election on the site, but now I don't have to. I found another election site that has done that. The results are: Michael Badnarik gets 288 electoral votes and is elected president. John Kerry is runner up with 228 electoral votes. George Bush wins Rhode Island and hauls in its 4 electoral votes. (No Republican has actually carried Rhode Island since the Reagan landslide of 1984.) So much for mock elections.
A new cartoon of the week is now available.
To get the dates and sources for the polling data, click on the Excel spreadsheet at the top right. To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D. To help publicize this website, please link to it to improve its Google PageRank and tell your friends about it.
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