Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 307   Bush 231

Data in Excel format Battleground states Info about the states Previous report Next report News   Strong Kerry (189) Weak Kerry (42) Barely Kerry (76) Exactly tied (0) Barely Bush (45) Weak Bush (52) Strong Bush (134) Needed to win: 270

Aug. 5

New polls: GA IL MI NJ WI

News from the Votemaster

We have three new polls from Stategic Vision, four from Rasmussen, and one from Quinnipiac University today. None of them change very much. The Strategic Vision polls give Kerry a 5% lead in Michigan, down from the 7% lead Zogby gave him two days ago and a 1% lead in Wisconsin, down from the 2% lead Zogby gave him two days ago. Thus Kerry actually has a small lead in Michigan and Wisconsin is a tossup. Strategic Vision also puts Bush 11% ahead in Georgia, a state no one will campaign in and Bush will win handily.

Rasmussen released four more tracking polls taken from July 1 through July 30. Except for Illinois, we won't use these because more recent three-day polls are available. For the record, here are Rasmussen's results.

The Quinnipiac University poll puts Kerry solidly ahead in New Jersey, even with a large (6%) Nader vote.

-- The votemaster