Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:
Kerry 257
Bush 281
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 28%
Bush: 68%
Nader: 2%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 28.3%, Bush 69.2%, Nader 2.0%
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 6%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 28)
2000: Gore: 47.8%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 3.6%
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 49%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 29)
2000: Gore: 45.6%, Bush 51.9%
Washington (11 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 41%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 03)
2000: Gore: 50.2%, Bush 44.6%
Virginia (13 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 51%
Source: PollingReport.com (Nov 03)
2000: Gore: 44.5%, Bush 52.5%
Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 4%
Source: Hedgehog (May 5)
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%
Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 36%
Nader: 4%
Source: Hedgehog (May 5)
2000: Gore: 50.7%, Bush 40.8%, Nader 6.9%
Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 22%
Bush: 67%
Nader: 3%
Source: Dan Jones (May 13)
2000: Gore: 26.5%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 4.7%
Texas (34 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 58%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 15)
2000: Gore: 38.0%, Bush 59.3%
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 52%
Source: Hedgehog (Mar 22)
2000: Gore: 47.3%, Bush 51.2%
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 34%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 6%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 21)
2000: Gore: 37.6%, Bush 60.3%, Nader 0.0%
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 45%
Source: PollingReport.com (Jan 04)
2000: Gore: 40.9%, Bush 56.9%
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 31%
Source: PollingReport.com (Feb 04)
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 31%
Source: PollingReport.com (Feb 04)
2000: Gore: 61.0%, Bush 31.9%
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%
Nader: 3%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 14)
2000: Gore: 50.6%, Bush 46.4%, Nader 2.1%
Oregon (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 3%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 14)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 46.6%, Nader 5.1%
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 34%
Bush: 53%
Source: Hedgehog (May 19)
2000: Gore: 38.4%, Bush 60.3%
Ohio (20 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 42%
Nader: 2%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 12)
2000: Gore: 46.4%, Bush 50.0%, Nader 2.5%
North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 61%
Nader: 3%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 33.1%, Bush 60.7%, Nader 3.3%
North Carolina (15 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 3%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 04)
2000: Gore: 43.1%, Bush 56.0%, Nader 0.0%
New York (31 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 32%
Nader: 1%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 22)
2000: Gore: 60.2%, Bush 35.2%, Nader 3.6%
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 3%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 01)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 47.8%, Nader 3.6%
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 43%
Nader: 5%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 16)
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 43%
Nader: 5%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 16)
2000: Gore: 56.1%, Bush 40.3%, Nader 3.0%
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 26)
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%
New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 2%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 26)
2000: Gore: 46.9%, Bush 48.2%, Nader 3.9%
Nevada (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 4%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 04)
2000: Gore: 46.2%, Bush 49.8%, Nader 2.5%
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 62%
Nader: 4%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 33.2%, Bush 62.2%, Nader 3.5%
Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 26%
Bush: 58%
Source: PollingReport.com (Dec 10)
2000: Gore: 33.4%, Bush 58.4%
Missouri (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 50%
Nader: 5%
Source: Hedgehog (Mar 23)
2000: Gore: 47.1%, Bush 50.4%, Nader 1.6%
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 58%
Nader: 1%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 40.7%, Bush 57.6%, Nader 0.8%
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 2%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 31)
2000: Gore: 47.9%, Bush 45.5%, Nader 5.2%
Michigan (17 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 2%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 12)
2000: Gore: 51.3%, Bush 46.1%, Nader 2.0%
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 54%
Bush: 30%
Nader: 5%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 6)
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 54%
Bush: 30%
Nader: 5%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 6)
2000: Gore: 59.9%, Bush 32.5%, Nader 6.4%
Maryland (10 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 24)
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%
Maryland (10 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 24)
2000: Gore: 56.6%, Bush 40.2%
Maine (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 38%
Nader: 4%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 3)
2000: Gore: 49.1%, Bush 44.0%, Nader 5.7%
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 52%
Nader: 2%
Source: Harris Deville (Mar 29)
2000: Gore: 44.9%, Bush 52.6%, Nader 0.8%
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 52%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 11)
2000: Gore: 41.3%, Bush 56.4%
Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 39%
Bush: 57%
Source: Hedgehog (Mar 4)
2000: Gore: 37.2%, Bush 58.0%
Iowa (7 EVs)
Barely Kerry
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 3%
Source: American Res. Group (Apr 21)
2000: Gore: 48.6%, Bush 48.3%, Nader 2.2%
Indiana (11 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 33%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 6%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 23)
2000: Gore: 41.0%, Bush 56.6%, Nader 0.8%
Illinois (21 EVs)
Weak Kerry
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 41%
Nader: 8%
Source: Hedgehog (May 12)
2000: Gore: 54.6%, Bush 42.6%, Nader 2.2%
Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 28%
Bush: 67%
Nader: 2%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 27.6%, Bush 67.2%, Nader 2.5%
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 37%
Nader: 6%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 55.8%, Bush 37.5%, Nader 5.9%
Georgia (15 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 1%
Source: Shapiro Res. Group (Feb 9)
2000: Gore: 43.2%, Bush 55.0%, Nader 0.0%
Florida (27 EVs)
Barely Bush
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 3%
Source: PollingReport.com (May 19)
2000: Gore: 48.8%, Bush 48.8%, Nader 1.6%
D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 86%
Bush: 9%
Nader: 5%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%
D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 86%
Bush: 9%
Nader: 5%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 85.7%, Bush 9.0%, Nader 5.3%
Delaware (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 42%
Nader: 3%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%
Delaware (3 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 42%
Nader: 3%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 55.0%, Bush 41.9%, Nader 2.5%
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 33%
Nader: 4%
Source: Univ. of Connecticut (Apr 27)
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 33%
Nader: 4%
Source: Univ. of Connecticut (Apr 27)
2000: Gore: 55.9%, Bush 38.4%, Nader 4.4%
Colorado (9 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 40%
Bush: 49%
Nader: 4%
Source: PollingReport.com (Apr 27)
2000: Gore: 42.4%, Bush 50.8%, Nader 5.3%
California (55 EVs)
Strong Kerry
Kerry: 49%
Bush: 39%
Nader: 6%
Source: Hedgehog (Apr 6)
2000: Gore: 53.4%, Bush 41.7%, Nader 3.8%
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 43%
Bush: 51%
Nader: 7%
Source: PollingReport.com (Mar 3)
2000: Gore: 45.9%, Bush 51.3%, Nader 1.5%
Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Bush
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 45%
Nader: 7%
Source: Rocky Mountain (May 5)
2000: Gore: 44.7%, Bush 51.0%, Nader 3.0%
Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 28%
Bush: 59%
Nader: 10%
Source: 2000 Election (no poll in 2004)
2000: Gore: 27.8%, Bush 58.8%, Nader 10.1%
Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Bush
Kerry: 29%
Bush: 54%
Nader: 5%
Source: Hedgehog (May 13)
2000: Gore: 41.6%, Bush 56.5%, Nader 1.1%
Data in Excel format
Battleground states
Info about the states
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Weak Kerry (72)
Barely Kerry (49)
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Weak Bush (40)
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May 24
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