No Shutdown... for Now

That headline is not 100% correct, as the federal government technically will shut down for a few hours. However, it will be a few hours during which non-essential tasks are not performed, meaning the shutdown will have no effect.

In other words, under the pressure imposed by the looming deadline, not to mention the fact that they do not want to give up their vacations, the members of Congress managed to reach agreement on a kick-the-can budget bill. The vote in the House was 366 to 34, while in the Senate it was 85 to 11. Joe Biden apparently hasn't signed the bill yet, but is expected to do so first thing today.

So, what's in the bill? First and foremost, an agreement to fund the government at current levels through March 14 of next year. There's also $100 billion in disaster aid (a win for Democrats) and $10 billion in farm aid (a win for Republicans). Those things seemed very likely to make the cut, regardless of what happened.

And what's not in the bill? Most importantly, the debt ceiling has not been suspended, either for 2 years, or permanently. So, Donald Trump did not get what he demanded. Beyond that, the 1,500-page bill was cut to a "mere" 500 pages, which means lots of people will have to have turkey for their Christmas dinner, because they're not getting any pork this week. Most obviously, Midwest Republicans tried to sneak through a provision that would make it easier to sell E-15 gasoline (a mix of regular gas and ethanol), because ethanol is created mostly from corn, and so E-15 gas sales are very good for corn farmers. That part of the bill went out the window, which made Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), in particular, very unhappy. If we were an intact male Iowa pig, we'd give her a wide berth over the holiday break.

Also cut were some attempts to backdoor some new regulations. There were members of both parties who wanted new rules governing pharmacy benefit managers. Those members will not be getting those rules, at least not right now. There was also a passage in the 1,500-page bill, now excised, that would have made social media companies—you know, like eX-Twitter and "Truth" Social—responsible for removing revenge porn from their sites. Afterward, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said that the removal of that language was "completely unrelated" to the business interests of Elon Musk and Donald Trump. It must be true, because when have you ever known Ted Cruz to be duplicitous?

Reportedly, Trump gave his support to the bill, although it's clearly a case of him seeing which way the winds were blowing, and deciding to go along for the ride, not unlike when he "endorses" a Republican running in an R+30 district. He's otherwise been pretty silent, which is not surprising, because he's clearly not happy with the outcome. On Thursday night, he was on his boutique social media platform basically rooting for a shutdown, on the theory that it would happen on Joe Biden's watch (true) and so Biden would get the blame (dubious). On top of that, of course, Trump "lost" here, since Congress basically rebelled, en masse, against his debt ceiling demands. The emperor's clothes may be getting more and more transparent.

Co-President-elect Musk, by contrast, did speak up, on eX-Twitter. Here's what he tweeted:

The Speaker did a good job here, given the circumstances.

It went from a bill that weighed pounds to a bill that weighed ounces.

Ball should now be in the Dem court.

We don't have the faintest idea what that last sentence means. If he was trying to say that Democrats should vote for the kick-the-can resolution, well, they had already done so by the time he sent that message out. If he means that it's up to them to solve this problem long-term, then his civics education is lacking. The Republicans will have the trifecta as of January 20, making the Democrats the junior partner (and largely the silent partner) in governance for the next 2 years. Perhaps Musk did not have time to fully figure out how to express himself, as he was also busy on Friday endorsing the German political party that panders to neo-Nazis.

The next big question, which will be answered in about two weeks, is: What happens with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)? On one hand, off-the-record Republican members of the House say he doesn't have the votes to keep his job. On the other hand: (1) Who does have the votes?; (2) He managed to work some magic yesterday, which should be a selling point; and (3) He apparently has the support of Musk, who seems to be calling the shots in the Republican Party these days. It could go either way on January 3; make sure you've laid in a supply of popcorn, just in case.

The big question after that is what happens on March 14. The divisions in the Republican Party will still be there; there could be a new, rookie speaker; the pressure of "saving Christmas" won't be present; and who knows what either Musk or Trump will do or say or demand? They really should start trying to hammer something out in January, while there's still time. But, as we all know, it never works like that. So, it could get messy. (Z)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger