State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 38% Trump 57% +19% Mar 03
Alaska Biden 35% Trump 61% +26% Nov 10
Arizona Biden 42% Trump 49% +7% Apr 13
Arkansas Biden 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 10
California Biden 54% Trump 31% +23% Mar 25
Colorado Biden 49% Trump 39% +10% Mar 19
Connecticut Biden 59% Trump 40% +19% Nov 10
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 6% +87% Nov 10
Delaware Biden 59% Trump 40% +19% Nov 10
Florida Biden 40% Trump 51% +11% Apr 17
Georgia Biden 44% Trump 50% +6% Apr 16
Hawaii Biden 64% Trump 34% +30% Nov 10
Idaho Biden 28% Trump 63% +35% Apr 16
Illinois Biden 56% Trump 42% +14% Nov 10
Indiana Biden 34% Trump 55% +21% Mar 05
Iowa Biden 33% Trump 48% +15% Feb 28
Kansas Biden 42% Trump 56% +14% Nov 10
Kentucky Biden 36% Trump 63% +27% Nov 10
Louisiana Biden 40% Trump 59% +19% Nov 10
Maine Biden 32% Trump 38% +6% Feb 14
Maryland Biden 55% Trump 32% +23% Feb 13
Massachusetts Biden 52% Trump 22% +30% Apr 20
Michigan Biden 43% Trump 45% +2% Apr 16
Minnesota Biden 44% Trump 42% +2% Apr 07
Mississippi Biden 37% Trump 62% +25% Nov 10
Missouri Biden 32% Trump 49% +17% Jan 28
Montana Biden 35% Trump 56% +21% Mar 02
Nebraska Biden 40% Trump 58% +18% Nov 10
Nevada Biden 43% Trump 51% +8% Apr 13
New Hampshire Biden 52% Trump 45% +7% Jan 17
New Jersey Biden 46% Trump 39% +7% Mar 29
New Mexico Biden 54% Trump 44% +10% Nov 10
New York Biden 47% Trump 37% +10% Apr 17
North Carolina Biden 41% Trump 47% +6% Apr 17
North Dakota Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 10
Ohio Biden 40% Trump 51% +11% Mar 13
Oklahoma Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 10
Oregon Biden 54% Trump 34% +20% Apr 16
Pennsylvania Biden 47% Trump 48% +1% Apr 16
Rhode Island Biden 59% Trump 39% +20% Nov 10
South Carolina Biden 37% Trump 51% +14% Feb 16
South Dakota Biden 26% Trump 55% +29% Jan 28
Tennessee Biden 31% Trump 55% +24% Apr 02
Texas Biden 36% Trump 48% +12% Apr 10
Utah Biden 38% Trump 46% +8% Mar 03
Vermont Biden 59% Trump 28% +31% Mar 03
Virginia Biden 49% Trump 42% +7% Mar 03
Washington Biden 54% Trump 39% +15% Apr 16
West Virginia Biden 30% Trump 69% +39% Nov 10
Wisconsin Biden 46% Trump 48% +2% Apr 16
Wyoming Biden 27% Trump 70% +43% Nov 10