What a Difference 3 Weeks Makes

Yesterday, Siena College released polls in the three northern swing states showing Kamala Harris ahead in each one by 4 points. These polls did not come out of the blue. They were part of a trend that has been underway since Joe Biden passed the baton to Harris. Here is the effect graphically:

Observe closely what happened after Biden dropped out and Harris instantly became the de facto nominee. Trump's electoral-vote score dropped from a high of 318 on July 11 to 235 now. In the same period, Biden/Harris went from 220 EVs to 276. On July 11, Trump had enough to win. Now Harris has enough to win.

This graph, and others like it, can be found by clicking on the Electoral-vote graphs link in the menu to the left of the map above. It is updated daily as new polls come in. Note carefully that the graph above reflects the EV score on the main page every day. States where one candidate has a lead that is really a statistical tie (the states with a white center on the map) count here. But in the second graph on the page linked to above, where only "solid" states are counted, Trump's collapse is also visible, although Harris' rise is smaller. On the second graph, you can see Biden/Harris has never been above 270 in the solid states. Trump was above it one day in March and six days in April, but not since then.

As an aside, there is more to this site than the front page. The Click for Senate link above the map takes you to our Senate page, with descriptions of all 34 Senate races. We will begin updating the Senate map daily in about 2 weeks, when almost all the Senate candidates will have been chosen. Next to the Senate link is a link to download all the polling data in various formats.

On the menu, there are a number of interesting links, including the tipping-point table, graphs of the electoral vote, graphs of the state polls, state averages, and more. Take a look. (V)

Trump Is Now Claiming Harris' Nomination is Unconstitutional

Donald Trump is scared. His internal polls are no doubt showing the same thing as the public polls (see above graph). He knows all too well that if he loses the election, his criminal trials will eventually happen, he will probably be convicted on at least some of the charges, and he will rot in prison for the rest of his life. Maybe Ivanka will come visit him on his birthday if he is imprisoned close by in southern Florida, where she lives, but probably everyone else will move on and in 5 years he will simply become a historical footnote, like Millard Fillmore. That is not something he is looking forward to, so he is determined to win, no matter what it takes.

What it takes includes, among other things, using the courts and cheating any way he can. In particular, he is already claiming that Kamala Harris' nomination is "unconstitutional" because she didn't win any primaries. This ignores a couple of things. First, the parties can nominate their candidates any way they want to. Before 1960, only a handful of states held primaries. The nominees were chosen by party bosses in smoke-filled rooms. There is no constitutional provision that parties have to hold primaries. In 1960, only 14 states held primaries. Go a few decades prior to that, and the number is half that. Go a few more decades back, to 1900 or so, and it's zero.

Second, when states hold primaries, no candidates are elected. The primaries are held to elect delegates to the national conventions. In some states, the delegates are required to vote for the candidate they supported on the first ballot, provided that the candidate is alive and still running when the first ballot is held. If those conditions do not hold, the delegates all become free agents. There is nothing in the Constitution telling them what they can or cannot do. Trump's claim is nonsense and he presumably knows that.

So why is he making an obviously false claim? He is clearly preparing a court challenge if Harris wins. That argument, that somehow Harris' nomination was constitutionally flawed, so she can't be president, is nonsense. All that matters is who the 538 presidential electors vote for on December 17, 2024. If 270 of them go rogue and vote for, say, Taylor Swift, she would become president (coincidentally having met the constitutional qualifications just 4 days earlier, as her 35th birthday is on December 13th of this year). In 15 states, faithless electors can be replaced. In some others, the false electoral vote would count but the faithless elector might be subject to a small fine. In 16 states, the electors can vote for the candidate of their own choosing with no penalty for doing so. In any event, if Harris is the Democratic nominee, and if she wins the Electoral College vote, there will be nothing unconstitutional about it. Trump's argument that Harris' nomination's somehow flawed is just intended to make his supporters think he has a good case if he sues to have the election overturned. His supporters can be bamboozled easily, but judges can't be. Even the nutty judges, like Trevor McFadden or Neomi Rao, are not going to declare that political parties don't have a right to nominate the candidate of their choice.

A second front in Trump's potential war to steal the election in broad daylight is the certification process. Over 70 county election officials are election deniers. Of these, 22 have already refused or delayed certifying one or more past elections where they didn't like who won. In most states, the secretary of state cannot certify the statewide election results until all the counties have certified theirs, so failure to certify can hold up state certification. If there is no certified winner by some deadline, the governor can't sign the certificate of ascertainment, which says who the electors are. That would throw the election into chaos and might open the gates for the state legislature to appoint the electors, something Trump and the Supreme Court might approve. But this is a longshot; it is likely that the secretaries of state would file lawsuits with lightning speed, and that the courts would fast-track them and tell the recalcitrant election officials to do their jobs or go to prison. We already had one example of this in Arizona in 2020, and judges in 2024 are likely to be even less friendly to election deniers, given how openly Trump & Co. are talking about their plans, weeks and weeks before any actual ballots have actually been cast.

These various Hail Mary passes, which are various levels of desperate, are part of Trump's strategy of creating FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) if he loses. Democrats are aware of all this and have lawyers ready to go to court. One thing the Democrats have going for them is that in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, the Democrats control the election machinery, and in Nevada and Pennsylvania it is mixed control. Only in Georgia and New Hampshire do Republicans run the show, and the officials there are the least Trumpy of all. In fact, Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) despises Trump and Georgia Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger (R) got into a pi**ing match with Trump in 2020. Here is the full list of the relevant officials in the swingiest states:

State	Governor	Secretary of State
Arizona	Katie Hobbs (D)	Adrian Fontes (D)
Georgia	Brian Kemp (R)	Brad Raffensperger (R)
Michigan	Gretchen Whitmer (D)	Jocelyn Benson (D)
Minnesota	Tim Walz (D)	Steve Simon (D)
Nevada	Joe Lombardo (R)	Francisco Aguilar (D)
New Hampshire	Chris Sununu (R)	David Scanlan (R)
North Carolina	Roy Cooper (D)	Elaine Marshall (D)
Pennsylvania	Josh Shapiro (D)	Al Schmidt (R)
Wisconsin	Tony Evers (D)	Sarah Godlewski (D)

At the end of the day, it is the governor who has to sign the certificate of ascertainment. If some county balks but the governor signs it anyway, it probably counts because the Electoral College Reform Act of 2022 says that the certificate is valid if the governor signs it. There is no provision in the Act giving counties a veto over the governor. Nevertheless, if Trump loses, expect him to fight tooth and nail to somehow overturn the election—again. Only this time, the Democrats are prepared for a knife fight. (V)

Trump's Campaign Has Been Hacked

After Politico began receiving anonymous e-mails containing internal documents from the Trump campaign, the campaign admitted that it had been hacked. Based on a somewhat vague report from Microsoft, which said it believed foreign hackers might be trying to break into a presidential campaign's computers, the Trump campaign blamed the attack on Iran, although it had no evidence to back this up. Why Iran would want to sabotage Trump is not clear. Does it expect to get a better deal from Kamala Harris? Probably not much better. Maybe the Iranians are afraid that Trump would nuke them at the slightest provocation, just to prove how macho he is. Although actually, the likeliest explanation is that Iran expects Trump to be VERY Israel-friendly, and wants to forestall that. Also, they surely aren't over Trump's decision to have Qasem Soleimani killed. Anyhow, it certainly COULD be Iran behind all of this. But the hack, like the assassination attempt, could also be the work of a deranged loner.

The documents Politico received came in over the course of a few weeks from an AOL account owned by "Robert" (not likely to be the perpetrator's real name, especially if he is an Iranian). Too bad they weren't from someone with the alias Tronald Dump Jr. That might be a good clue. Campaign officials verified to Politico that the documents were genuine. One thing included was the 271-page preliminary vetting file on Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH). It included a section on his vulnerabilities. Politico didn't reveal whether Vance's hatred of cat ladies was mentioned. There was also a file on Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and information from some of Trump's legal cases.

When Politico asked "Robert" how he came upon these documents, he replied: "I suggest you don't be curious about where I got them from. Any answer to this question, will compromise me and also legally restrict you from publishing them." The implication here is that some mole high up in the Trump campaign is trying to sabotage it, and if Politico were to know for sure that it possessed stolen documents, it could get into trouble for publishing them. It would be even hairier if the source were one of Trump's lawyers. As long as Politico can maintain the belief that it has received an intentional leak the campaign wanted published (which is very common in politics), that and the First Amendment probably provide it with enough cover.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton's campaign was hacked and embarrassing e-mails were published. One might think that knowing this, all high-level campaigns would hire the absolutely best security consultants out there to prevent this kind of stuff. At the very least, all documents should be encrypted with 256-bit keys with different keys for different categories of documents. Keys should be distributed very carefully on a need-to-know basis, only computers with the correct 48-bit unique MAC address built in to the network adapter should get access, and much more. But if one thought this, one would be wrong, especially since Trump is a cheapskate. (V)

Trump's Memory Is Failing

Back when Joe Biden was the expected Democratic nominee, Donald Trump was constantly claiming that Biden was old and demented. How things change. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Last Thursday, Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago that sometime in the 1990s, he was in a helicopter with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown and the copter was forced to have an emergency landing somewhere in California. Why Trump even told this story is not clear, except he knows that back when Kamala Harris was single, she briefly dated Brown.

It didn't take long for Brown to speak up and completely rebut the story. He said that he was never in a helicopter with Trump. Brown said: "Never happened, period. And I think my memory is probably better than his." All Trump's campaign had to say in response is: "Slick Willie." That was formerly a reference to Bill Clinton and has nothing to do with Brown.

Next up, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) said: "I was once in a helicopter with Trump and former California governor Jerry Brown in 2018 inspecting wildfires and it most certainly did not go down, although Trump did talk about the possibility. Newsom said that Trump is confusing Willie Brown (who is Black) and Jerry Brown (who is white).

After that came out, former California state senator Nate Holden gave an interview in which he said HE was the one in the helicopter with Trump in 1990 and he remembers the near-death experience very well. He added: "Willie is a short Black guy who lives in San Francisco and I am a tall Black guy who lives in Los Angeles. I guess we all look alike." Holden said that he was in the helicopter with Trump because Trump wanted to build something on the site of the historic Ambassador Hotel and the site was in Holden's state Senate district so Trump wanted his support for the project. Holden further said that Trump Organization executive VP Barbara Res was also in the helicopter. On Friday, Res told Politico that she also remembered the incident and even wrote about it in her memoir. She confirmed that the Black man on the helicopter was definitely Nate Holden.

Oh, one more thing. The incident occurred on a trip from New York City to Atlantic City, NJ, to show Holden how magnificent one of Trump's casinos was. Holden recalled that Trump was extremely miffed when they were leaving Trump Tower because several people recognized Holden and addressed him as "senator," while no one recognized Trump.

With so many witnesses now, there is no doubt that the Brown-Holden-Res story is the true one. Trump was never in a helicopter with Willie Brown (but he was with Jerry Brown in California). Trump was also in one with Holden and Res and it almost crashed (in New Jersey). What's going on here? Option 1: Trump is lying. Option 2: Trump is old, his memory is failing, and he can't tell a short Black man from a tall Black man and can't even tell a white man named Brown from a Black man named Brown. Holden is 17 years older than Trump, yet the near-crash was so scary, even 34 years later he remembers it very clearly. While Biden was in the race, there was a lot of talk about whether he had dementia. Now the subject is changing to whether Trump has dementia, and stories like this one don't help him. (V)

Harris Targets Nikki Haley Republicans

Roughly 20% of Republicans voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries—even after she dropped out. A new group aligned with Kamala Harris' campaign is trying to win them over. Former Pennsylvania Republican U.S. House member Jim Greenwood has created a group "Republican Voters for Harris." It is focused on the 158,000 Pennsylvania Republican voters who marked the box for Nikki Haley in April. Similar groups are forming in Arizona and elsewhere. Some of the Haley voters have told Greenwood they can't vote for a Democrat, so he is urging them to stay home or vote third party. He and the co-chair of the group, Ann Womble, said that the goal is not so much to elect Harris, but to defeat Trump. In the end, that is the same thing, but to Haley Republicans, defeating Trump may be a more acceptable goal than electing Harris.

Some anti-Trump Republicans aren't quite there yet, but are getting closer. They have provided a list of things Harris can do that would get them over the line. They want her to do these things:

1. Strongly support Israel.
2. Make it clear that she supports capitalism.
3. Denounce the Jan. 6 rioters.
4. Tout the bipartisan Lankford-Murphy immigration bill that Trump personally killed.

If she does these things, she can probably pick up a substantial number of NeverTrump Republicans, even if their votes are made grudgingly. She might lose some pro-Palestinian students at Columbia and UCLA. But maybe not even them, since most of them already know (or will soon know) that Trump hates Palestinians, Arabs, and all Muslims with a passion and Young Jared wants to get rid of the Gazans so he can develop Gaza into Miami Beach East.

Conservative radio host Charlie Sykes said: "So even though it was once unthinkable to ask conservative Republicans to vote for somebody as progressive as Kamala Harris, if you do actually recognize Donald Trump as an existential threat to the constitutional order, then it's a surprisingly easy decision." Other well-known conservatives have agreed. Another prominent conservative, David French, said: "If conservatism is going to have a viable future, then Trump has to lose. He's draining the entire right of any meaningful ideology or ethos." Former GOP congressman Joe Walsh tweeted: "Walz is a really good pick. The Democratic Party has become way too elitist, they need more 'regular folk' faces & voices like Walz. Regular guy Tim will do well in PA, MI, and WI." Here again, it is all about defeating Trump, and electing Harris is unfortunately the only way to do it. It's clothespin time.

These aren't the only traditional Republicans who are out to defeat Trump. Another is the publisher of The Bulwark, Sarah Longwell. She has created a group "Republican Voters Against Trump." Among other things, this group has established a website, rvat.org/#testimonials, where over 250 Republicans who voted for Trump at least once have uploaded short videos explaining why they will not vote for him in 2024. Here are a few examples.

If you are a NeverTrump Republican and want to make a video explaining why you aren't going to vote for him in 2024, here are the simple instructions to do so. There are a few brief questions to answer first, then you can either hit the Record button on the Web page and just start talking or you can upload a video you made offline. All you need is a phone, tablet, or laptop with a camera and microphone and a story to tell about why you aren't going to vote for Trump this time. It is best to make a short list of the points you want to make before starting. Coming across as authentic is much more important than reciting a carefully prepared script. If you make a small mistake, just keep going. They will edit out the mistake before posting it. (V)

Welcome to 1968

In August 1968, a foreign war was raging while the Democrats met in Chicago for their national convention. The sitting president decided not to run for reelection, so the Democrats nominated the sitting vice president, who really wasn't much involved in the president's conduct of the war. Nevertheless, thousands upon thousands of protesters descended upon the city, determined to show the Democrats that they did not like the war one bit. There were riots. The people watching on TV did not like what they saw on their little screens so they elected Richard Nixon. Here we go again.

The largest Palestinian community in the country is Chicago's Little Palestine and they are angry. Hatem Abudayyeh, national chair of the U.S. Palestinian Community Network said: "We don't expect any changes—we're still anticipating that there will be tens of thousands of people in the streets." Hamza AbdulQader, a Chicago-based Palestinian nurse who went to Gaza to help the people there and then came back, said of Kamala Harris: "Unless she clearly takes a stance and says this is not okay, that door is shut."

Harris has been much more critical of Israel than Joe Biden, but certainly is not pro-Palestinian. She has rejected pro-Palestinians who have interrupted her events. At a rally in Detroit, when demonstrators refused to stop chanting, she shot back: "If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that. Otherwise, I'm speaking." The audience cheered. In Arizona the day after, when she was interrupted, she called for a deal that had two components: (1) an immediate ceasefire and (2) release of all hostages. Biden has been trying to get that deal through for months, but Hamas is not interested because once the hostages are free, they have lost all their leverage.

The Palestinian community did get one major thing they wanted from Harris: She did not pick the strongly pro-Israel Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as her running mate. Nonetheless, that didn't change anything. This is always the case with single-issue communities of any kind: giving them a big piece of what they want doesn't placate them at all. They want the whole enchilada—even if they are not Mexican. The Republican Party is much more homogeneous and usually doesn't have this problem. Although they are admittedly having it now, to a minor extent, with abortion. All of them want to ban abortion, but the disagreement is about whether to allow exceptions for pregnancies caused by rape or incest.

The built-in problem the Democrats have is that they have a broad coalition with many factions, none of them is large enough to guarantee victory, but many of them are big enough to foment defeat. In 2000, supporters of Ralph Nader could have prevented the election of George W. Bush, but decided to teach the Democrats a lesson instead. In 2016, supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) could have prevented the election of Donald Trump, but decided to teach the Democrats a lesson instead. Will the story of 2024 ultimately be: The pro-Palestinians could have prevented the reelection of Donald Trump, but decided to teach the Democrats a lesson instead?

Deanna Othman, who was born and raised in Little Palestine, has been trying for months to evacuate her mother- and sister-in-law from Israel for medical reasons. She said of the upcoming demonstrations: "I think people really need to see it as the equivalent of the 1968 DNC in Chicago." She probably misses the irony that what the 1968 protesters effectively did was elect a president whose policies on the war were far, far, far, worse than the ones of the candidate they sank. It is not hard to defeat the merely bad if you are willing to accept the truly mindbogglingly horrendous.

Will history repeat itself? One big difference is that the mayor of Chicago is Brandon Johnson, not Richard Daley. Johnson wouldn't even be born until 8 years after the Chicago riot and has probably read every book on the riot and watched every news clip of it. He may be better equipped to deal with it, knowing what happened last time the Dems were in town. For one thing, he is for allowing protesters to march and wave signs, but not too close to the convention site. In addition the Chicago police have been training for this event for over a year. The flatfoots will not be caught flatfooted.

If the protesters agree to demonstrate in their assigned area, far from the convention site, the police will be there in force but will leave them alone. But if they try to march outside their assigned area, there will be trouble, probably with tear gas, flashbangs, helicopters, and other crowd-control measures. This is the Democrats' nightmare scenario. It's not the protest that hurt Hubert Humphrey, it was the violence. But if the Democrats grant the Palestinians their wishes, there go all the Nikki Haley Republicans (see point 1 in the item above), the evangelicals, and significant segments of the rest of the country. If Mayor Johnson can pull this off, he will be regarded as one of the greatest political leaders of his generation and will surely be bound for bigger things someday. (V)

Senate Candidate Tim Sheehy's Company Lost $77 Million Last Year

The NRSC has sought out and encouraged out-of-state millionaire businessmen to run for the Senate in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Montana, and elsewhere. It's their go-to trick because then they don't have to put any money in the race. The candidate supplies it all. Current polling shows that is working badly in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and is threatening to go south in Montana, the NRSC's best chance at a pickup, as well. The (theoretical) attraction is that the voters will be dazzled by the fact that the candidate is really rich because he is a brilliant businessman and somehow being a brilliant businessman translates into being a good senator, even if the guy lives in a different state.

Unfortunately for the NRSC, their carpetbagger candidate in Montana may have a problem. The millionaire businessman from Minnesota running in Montana, Tim Sheehy, who may have violated federal law by lying to a National Park ranger about a gun discharge, formed and owns an aerial firefighting company, Bridger Aerospace. Putting out wildfires sounds dramatic and more socially useful than a hedge fund that buys up struggling companies, sells off all the assets, and leaves the workers with no jobs, the state with no tax receipts, and the other stockholders with no value in their investment. But the hedge fund stockholders make out like bandits and pay low taxes due to a special deal for them in the tax code.

Now the problem. Bridger Aerospace lost $77 million last year and $47 million the previous year. It also has $8 million in the bank, a debt of $205 million, and it probably can't pay an upcoming interest payment of $18 million on that debt. It is also not in compliance with various financial agreements it has, including one with the county government that floated a bond issue to pay for a bigger hangar and more airplanes for the company. It laid off about 10% of its workforce this year. Although Sheehy is a big champion of rugged individualism, 88% of the company's revenues come from government contracts. Oh, and in an SEC filing, management wrote that there is "substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern" (English translation: There is a good chance the company will go bankrupt this year or next).

Running a potentially viable company (and one whose services are often needed as a result of climate change) into the ground doesn't instantly speak to the idea that the out-of-state CEO deserves to be a senator. Expect Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), who is a third generation Montana farmer, to bring up some of Sheehy's management skills in the next couple of months. Will it help him? Montana is a deep red state and it takes a lot for a Republican to throw away his built-in lead. Plus, you could argue that Sheehy actually fits the current-day GOP definition of "successful businessman" to a T. Did he ever host a reality TV show? (V)

Kennedy Hurts Trump More than Harris

With Joe Biden in the race, it wasn't clear whether the presence of Robert Kennedy Jr. in the race was hurting Biden more than it was hurting Donald Trump. Now that Biden is out and Kamala Harris is in, it is increasingly clear that Kennedy is hurting Trump more than he is hurting Harris. Apparently, many of his previous supporters were Democrats who felt that Biden was simply too old and feeble to be president, as well as antivaxxers who felt Trump was weak on vaccinations. With Biden gone, the Democrats have come home, but the antivaxxers, who tend to be right-wing, are sticking with Kennedy. In various polls, Harris now does better in three-, four-, and five-way races than head-to-head against Trump. In other words, when the antivaxxers are forced to choose between Harris and Trump, they choose Trump, but when Kennedy is an option, they dump Trump to jump to Kennedy. This is not what Kennedy's millionaire backers and Steve Bannon had in mind when they got him to enter the race.

As one example, a recent Emerson College poll of New Hampshire had Harris ahead of Trump by 4 points in a head-to-head race. But when respondents were allowed to pick a third party, her lead grew to 7 points due to Trump voters defecting to Kennedy. In national polls, it is the same story. In Marist College and YouGov polls, Kennedy costs Trump 1 point. In Ipsos, Siena College, and Marquette Law School polls, Kennedy costs Trump 2 points. In a Wall Street Journal poll, Kennedy takes 3 points out of Trump's hide. No recent poll shows Kennedy hurting Harris. Jill Stein (G), Chase Oliver (L), and Cornel West (I) are all way below 1%.

There is evidence that Trump and his backers are coming to understand how Dr. Frankenstein once felt. They have created a monster they can't control now. Trump was definitely not happy when libertarian podcaster Joe Rogan said he supports Kennedy. Rogan supports gay rights, marijuana, horse dewormer ivermectin, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), but hates cancel culture, vaccines, and transgender athletes. He is definitely the kind of guy some Trump supporters listen to. Spotify just paid him $250 million to host his podcasts. Having him say nice things about Kennedy could cost Trump votes.

But before Kennedy could cause large-scale trouble for anyone, he has to get on the ballot. This is proving trickier than he would like. In particular, he has lived in Los Angeles for over a decade. So does his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. Unfortunately, this means the 54 California electors are banned from voting for him for president and her for vice president. Rather than simply accepting that—meaning if he wins, he might have Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) or Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his VP—he has filed to get on the ballot everywhere claiming that he lives in Katonah, NY, a hamlet of 1,600 people in Westchester County.

A Democratic-aligned PAC has sued him in New York, claiming he lied on the nominating petitions, which would disqualify him. It is not clear who lives at the address on Kennedy's nominating petitions, but it is not Kennedy. He admits that, but says he plans to return there some day, and according to him, that is sufficient to qualify under New York State law. He recently testified in Albany as part of the lawsuit. If the New York court rules that he lives in California, then he will be off the New York ballot and face lawsuits in every other state as well. The result could be that he qualifies in no state. He may be a lawyer, but he is not a very smart lawyer. He should have thought this out long before jumping in (or before picking a fellow Californian as his running mate). Of course, when the Democrats started the lawsuit, they thought Kennedy was going to hurt Biden more than Trump. Now they are stuck with it. (V)

Four States Will Hold Primaries Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin hold primaries. Some of the contests are interesting. Let's take a look:

• Connecticut: No Republican has been elected to Congress from Connecticut in 18 years, but not all of them realize that. The top race is for the Senate. Sen. Chris Murphy brought in $13 million. The two Republicans who want to challenge him, Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith and pub owner Matt Corey, have raised less than $65,000 each. Good luck with that. And what is a selectman? What do they select? Voters want to know.
  
  In CT-05, Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-CT) is unopposed in the primary as is Republican George Logan. Logan came within a point of beating Hayes in 2022 and is trying again. There will be sparks in the fall, but not tomorrow.
  
  In CT-04, physician Michael Goldstein is battling tea party activist Bob MacGuffie for the right to lose to Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT). They raised $109,000 and $97,000, respectively. Himes has $2.3 million in the bank and is ready to spend it for the general election.
  
  
• Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) is a shoo-in for reelection, but there are a couple of noteworthy House races. MN-02 was supposed to have a competitive Republican primary to face Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) in a D+1 district. However, one of the Republicans just dropped out to work for Donald Trump's campaign, so Joe Teirab will be the Republican nominee. Craig has $4.1 million on hand and is the favorite.
  
  In MN-03, Dean Phillips retired to show the country that Joe Biden was old and feeble and couldn't win. Like Cassandra, he was right, but nobody believed him. Now he can go back to making gelato. Neither primary is competitive. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate will be former state senator Kelly Morrison. The Republican will be former state senator Tad Jude. The district is D+8 so Kelly will get to be a congresscritter.
  
  MN-05 is represented by the very controversial Squad member Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN). She is being challenged by Don Samuels, whom she narrowly defeated in the primary 2 years ago. Unlike Rep. Cori Bush's (D-MO) race, Omar has more money than her challenger and outside groups haven't been much involved in the race. Omar will probably win her race and cruise to reelection in the D+30 district. Does it really matter whom the Republicans nominate?
  
  
• Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) believes he will live forever and is running for a fourth term, which he will easily get against Gerald "Deploy" Malloy. Maybe this was the year to call it a (very successful) career, but he didn't, even though he knows he is 82 and also knows that Gov. Phil Scott is a Republican who has the power to fill Senate vacancies. In the House race, neither Rep. Becca Balint (D) nor Mark Coester (R) faces an opponent.
  
  
• Wisconsin: In all likelihood, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Eric Hovde (R) will win their primaries. They have already spent $25 million going after each other. The race will be hotly contested, but Baldwin is the favorite over California banker Hovde.
  
  WI-03 is marginally competitive at R+4, and three Democrats want the chance to unseat Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI). Progressive State Rep. Katrina Shankland is arguing that she has the experience to go to Congress. She had $190,000 on July 24. Small business owner Rebecca Cooke is backed by the Blue Dog PAC. She had $591,000 on July 24. The contrast is as plain as day. The third candidate is Eric Wilson. He had $29,000 on July 24. No matter who wins the primary, Van Orden is the favorite. He is a notorious loose cannon, however, so if any House candidate might have a "macaca" moment this year, he's the one.
  
  Finally, in the R+10 WI-08, there are two elections tomorrow for Republicans. One is the special election to fill out the term to which Mike Gallagher was elected before he resigned from the House. The other is the primary for the term beginning Jan. 3, 2025. The same three Republicans are running in both races. They are state Sen. Andre Jacque, former state Sen. Roger Roth, and former gas station owner Tony Wied. Donald Trump has endorsed Wied, who has put $645,000 of his own money in the race. The winner will face physician Kristin Lyerly, who is the Democrat in both races.
  

Not as exciting as last week, but the primaries are finally winding down. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Now Arizona and North Carolina are tied. One poll showing this in each doesn't mean a lot, so we should wait for more before taking this too seriously. Nevertheless, Harris certainly will be more competitive in the diverse Sunbelt states than Biden would have been.

State	Kamala Harris	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
North Carolina	46%	46%	Aug 05	Aug 09	YouGov

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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