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Senate Dem 58   GOP 41   Ties 1
House Dem 257   GOP 178  

Map of the 2010 Senate Races
Downloadable polling data
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strong Dem Strong Dem (57)
weak Dem Weak Dem (0)
barely Dem Barely Dem (1)
tied Exactly tied (1)
barely GOP Barely GOP (5)
weak GOP Weak GOP (1)
strong GOP Strong GOP (35)
Map algorithm explained
Senate polls today: (None) RSS
Dem pickups (vs. 2004): (None) GOP pickups (vs. 2004): (None) PDA

PW logo Steele May Face No Confidence Vote When the Laughing Doesn't Stop
Sebelius Nomination on Track Congress Passes Spending Bill
McCain Preparing Economic Plan Bunning Refuses to Release Poll Results

News from the Votemaster

Boxer Leads Schwarzenegger in Poll

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is up for reelection in 2010 and probably the only worry she has is a potential challenge from term-limited governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). However a new Field poll shows Boxer with a comfortable lead of 54% to 30% over the former movie star. If Schwarzenegger's own polling gives similar results, he may not even enter the race and just retire from politics. If it weren't for that pesky constitution, he might have run for President in 2012, but unless it is amended in the next couple of years to allow foreign-born Presidents, that is not an option.

Dodd May Face Real Challenge in 2010

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) trailing former representative Rob Simmons (R) 42% to 43%. Dodd, a five-term senator from a very blue state, is chairman of the Senate banking committee, which is currently a two-edged sword. On the one hand, he is seen by many voters are supporting the bank bailout, which is very unpopular. If the voters perceive him as giving a trillion dollars to a bunch of badly mismanaged banks and getting nothing for the taxpayers in return, he could be in trouble. On the other hand, he is universally known in Connecticut and has tremendous clout, something a newbie Republican in a tiny minority would not have. Dodd is also a prodigious fundraiser, and the banks he is trying to bail out know him well and would rather deal with him than start all over with a new chairman (English translation: they will give him LOTS of campaign contributions). Furthermore, Simmons has not given an indication that he wants to run. All in all, Dodd has to pay attention to his reelection campaign this time, but he is still the clear favorite, despite the poll.

Republican Leading in Delaware Poll

A new PPP (D) poll in Delaware shows that if Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) were to run for Joe Biden's old Senate seat in 2010, he would beat Biden's son, Beau Biden, 44% to 35%. However, Castle, who will be 72 on election day in 2010 and has health issues, seems unlikely to run, leaving the Republicans with no serious candidates. By default, the Republican nomination may again go to Christine O'Donnell, a young woman more popular for her good looks than her stands against abortion, pornography, and premarital sex, positions that are not wildly popular in very blue Delaware. She ran against Joe Biden for the Senate in 2008 and got 35% of the vote. She probably would do about the same against his son.

Bunning Won't Release Poll

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), had a poll taken in February and has refused to release the results. Normally, politicians release their internal polls when they are favorable and hide them when they are not. When reporters asked about the poll, Bunning said "If you paid the 20 grand for the poll, you can get some information out of it." Actually, we do get some information from his statement: polls of this kind apparently cost $20,000. This incident puts another nail in Bunning's coffin. The Republicans will now probably do everything they can to get rid of him as they perceive him as very vulnerable. It will be interesting to watch how he responds. It won't be pretty.

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-- The Votemaster