Only 387 New Ballots Will be Counted in Minnesota
All Minnesota counties have now
complied
with the court order to
supply absentee ballots that were previously rejected but which are legal under Minnesota law.
There are 387 such ballots and the three-judge panel overseeing the election contest
is expected to open and count them this week. Since Democrat Al Franken leads Republican
Norm Coleman by 225 votes, Coleman would need 79% of these absentee ballots to move into the lead.
As that is extremely unlikely, Coleman has already said he will appeal the case to the Minnesota
Supreme Court.
Special Election to Fill Emanuel's Seat Today
The voters in IL-05 will go to the polls (well, a few of them), to
elect
a successor to Rahm Emanuel, now White House Chief of Staff. The Chicago district is heavily
Democratic and everyone expects Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley (D) to handily defeat
Rosanna Pulido (R), an anti-illegal-immigration activist.
Paterson's Approval at an All-Time Low
A new poll
shows that only 22% of New Yorkers think he should be elected governor in 2010.
In a primary against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the former governor's son would trounce
Paterson 53% to 32% and then go on to defeat Rudy Giuliani by a 53% to 36% margin if Giuliani is the
Republican nominee, something that is unlikely if Giuliani keeps seeing poll numbers like that.
Gillibrand Raised $2.3 million in the First Quarter
Some NY Democrats feel that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is too conservative for their taste
(especially on gun control) and are thinking of challenging her in a primary. However, they
may have forgotten that she is a prodigious fund raiser. She intends to remind them of this.
In the first quarter of 2009, she
raked in
$2.3 million already.
Mongiardo Raises $420,000 for Kentucky Senate Race
Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D-KY) has filed a
report
with the FEC stating that he raised $420,000 in the first quarter of 2009 for his campaign for the
U.S. Senate. In 2004, he ran against Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) and nearly beat him and now he wants a rematch.
Bunning has said his fundraising has been lousy. However, before Mongiardo can go after Bunning, he
may have to win a primary, as several other Kentucky Democrats are thinking of running as well,
including state Attorney General Jack Conway.
Analysis of 2008 Voting Turnout Available
Nine million more people voted in 2008 than in 2004, but since the voting-age population increased by
10 million, the turnout was about the same according to a new
study
from George Mason University. However turnout among various groups was not flat.
Blacks, Latinos, and young people voted in greater numbers and whites voted in fewer numbers than in 2004
according to the report.
More Gubernatorial Races
Here are brief summaries of the gubernatorial races in the rest of the Midwest and the Great Plains.
Minnesota
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Tim Pawlenty (R)
|
(D)
|
Some people are talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible
presidential nominee in 2012. He hasn't discouraged that kind of talk,
but he is not term limited and could run for a third term in 2010.
In neither of his first two wins did he achieve even 50% of the vote, so
a third run where he barely squeaks through may give Republicans some
pause about him as a national candidate. Democrats know Pawlenty is vulnerable
and many are lining up to challenge him. The mayors of Minneapolis and St. Paul
may run in the Democratic primary along with the Speaker of the state House and maybe even
former senator Mark Dayton. If Pawlenty decides to retire to focus on running
for President full time, the gubernatorial race will become a free for all on
both sides.
|
Iowa
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Chet Culver (D)
|
(R)
|
Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state.
He is a good fit for the state and will be tough to beat when he runs for his second
term in 2010. The most likely Republican candidates are Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey
and state Auditor David Vaudt.
|
South Dakota
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
(R)
|
(D)
|
Open seat. Were he not term limited, the popular governor, Mike Rounds, could
easily win a third term, then a fourth one, and then a fifth one. Despite the
Republican tilt of the state in presidential elections, one of the senators (Tim
Johnson) and the only representative (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) are Democrats.
In fact, Herseth Sandlin may be interested in becoming governor, a job her
grandfather once held. If she runs, she'll probably win, too. If she doesn't run,
there are half a dozen Republicans interested in the job and they will slug it out
and whoever wins the Republican primary is likely to win the general election.
|
Nebraska
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Dave Heineman (R)
|
(D)
|
Then Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R-NE) inherited his job when Gov. Mike Johanns
became Secretary of Agriculture but Heineman ran on his own in 2006 and won
convincingly. He is expected to run in 2010 and win convincingly again.
The Democrats are likely to nominate a state legislator such as Steve Lathrop
or Tom White, but neither one has much of a chance.
|
Oklahoma
Challenger | Challenger | Notes |
(D)
|
(R)
|
Open seat. Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) is term limited so this will be an open seat in the reddest
state in the country (McCain got 66% of the vote here, vs. a 65% in Wyoming and a mere 63% in Utah).
In fact, Oklahoma is the only state in which McCain carried every county.
Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D-OK) is running as is Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D), but the Republicans have a
flotilla of prospects, including Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), former representative J.C. Watts (R), and Oklahome City
mayor Mick Cornett (R).
Nevertheless, the situation is not hopeless for the Democrats as they currently control every single statewide office.
|
Texas
Incumbent | Challenger | Notes |
Rick Perry (R)
|
(D)
|
The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), soon to be the longest serving governor in Texas history,
is going to be a humdinger. Only he won't be battling a Democrat; he'll be battling a fellow Republican,
Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in a bitter primary. Senate Republicans are pleading with her not to
run as she would probably win and leave behind an open Senate seat that Houston mayor Bill White (D) might be able
to win.
No matter who the Republican candidate for governor is, he or she is very likely to win.
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