How Good Were Our Predictions?

Directly below is the map as it was on the morning of election day. Below that is the map now, based on the election results. All states are in except Missouri, where counting is still going on. John McCain has a 6000-vote lead there but that could change. To get a better feeling for the scope of Obama's win, take a look at the cartogram.

What did we get right and what did we get wrong? The only state colored the wrong way is Indiana. The polls predicted a 2% win for McCain and it ended up as a 1% win for Obama. The polls said Missouri would be tied and it is (still) tied, so they got that right.

For a couple of states, the color gradations were wrong. Arizona, Arkansas, North Dakota and Georgia went a bit more Republican than the polls indicated and Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, and Pennsylvania went a bit more Democratic than expected. South Carolina was a bit less Republican than expected. All in all, not such a bad result though.

Election Results as of Now

Here are the current data. North Carolina has been called for Obama now, but the jury is still out on Missouri, where McCain has a slight lead. If Missouri ultimately goes for McCain, its bellwether status goes down the toilet. Obama's popular-vote victory was 6.3%. On election day, our prediction was 7.3%.

In the Senate, the Democrats will have at least 57 seats (counting Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman as Democrats for the moment) and the Republicans will have at least 40. Three races (Minnesota, Georgia, and Alaska) have yet to be decided.

In the House, the Democrats will have at least 254 seats and the Republicans at least 173 seats. The other eight seats are too close to call. These are AK-AL, CA-04, CA-44, LA-04, MD-01, OH-15, VA-05 and WA-08.

Obama Picks Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff

Barack Obama has selected Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) as his chief of staff and Emanuel accepted even though he was gunning to be Nancy Pelosi's successor as Speaker of the House. Emanuel, often called Rahmbo, is a former ballet dancer who oozes testosterone. He served 6 years in the Clinton White House as senior political advisor to Bill Clinton and later served 6 years in the House. In between he worked at an investment banking firm where he reportedly earned around $10 million. He has the political instincts of Karl Rove, but is not nearly as user-friendly as Rove. He has many powerful enemies, and for good reason. He once mailed a rotting fish to one of his political opponents. It is said that his favorite saying is: "If they pull a knife, you pull a gun. If they send one of your guys to the hospital, you send one of their guys to the morgue." Here is a good piece that gives you a feeling for him. The Wikipedia article is also worth reading. Emanuel is no self-effacing Andy Card. The bottom line is: if anybody messes with Obama, they are going to have to deal with Rahmbo.

Emanuel is a very ambitious guy and he is only 48. Undoubtedly in the back of his mind he is already thinking "Hmmm, in 2016 Biden will be older than McCain is now and if all goes well I will have served 14 years in two White Houses plus 6 years in Congress, not to mention having earned a small fortune in the private sector. If the country was ready for a black President in 2008, surely it will be ready for a Jewish President in 2016."

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