Wyoming Caucus on January 5 1. Mitt Romney (67%) 2. Fred Thompson (25%) 3. Duncan Hunter (8%)
Wisconsin Primary on February 19 Most recent polls: Dec 05: McCain 15% Romney 5% Huckabee 8% Nov 08: McCain 13% Romney 8% Huckabee 11% Apr 17: McCain 24% Romney 9%
West Virginia Convention on February 5 Most recent polls: Apr 02: McCain 33% Romney 8%
West Virginia Convention on February 5 Most recent polls: Apr 02: McCain 33% Romney 8%
Washington Caucus on February 9 Most recent polls: Oct 28: McCain 19% Romney 15% Huckabee 9%
Virginia Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 08: McCain 20% Romney 9%
Vermont Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Oct 19: McCain 13% Romney 7% Huckabee 2%
Vermont Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Oct 19: McCain 13% Romney 7% Huckabee 2%
Utah Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Oct 04: McCain 6% Romney 65% Huckabee 2%
Texas Hybrid on March 4 Most recent polls: May 07: McCain 27% Romney 6% Mar 19: McCain 20% Romney 13%
Tennessee Primary on February 5 No polls have been published
Tennessee Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 21: McCain 12% Romney 7%
South Dakota Primary on June 3 No polls have been published
South Carolina Primary on January 19 1. John McCain (33%) 2. Mike Huckabee (30%) 3. Fred Thompson (16%)
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 No polls have been published
Rhode Island Primary on March 4 No polls have been published
Pennsylvania Primary on April 22 Most recent polls: Jan 14: McCain 30% Romney 7% Huckabee 17% Dec 03: McCain 13% Romney 6% Huckabee 13% Nov 05: McCain 12% Romney 7% Huckabee 6%
Oregon Primary on May 20 Most recent polls: Aug 15: McCain 8% Romney 15% Huckabee 3% Mar 13: McCain 20% Romney 5%
Oklahoma Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 27: McCain 37% Romney 19% Jan 13: McCain 29% Romney 8% Huckabee 31% Dec 19: McCain 17% Romney 9% Huckabee 29%
Ohio Primary on March 4 Most recent polls: Dec 03: McCain 13% Romney 7% Huckabee 10% Nov 11: McCain 14% Romney 11% Huckabee 7% Oct 08: McCain 10% Romney 8% Huckabee 4%
North Dakota Caucus on February 5 No polls have been published
North Carolina Primary on May 6 Most recent polls: Jan 14: McCain 27% Romney 10% Huckabee 28% Sep 27: McCain 12% Romney 8% Huckabee 2% Apr 19: McCain 22% Romney 10%
New York Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 26: McCain 42% Romney 14% Jan 21: McCain 24% Romney 14% Huckabee 7% Jan 21: McCain 30% Romney 9%
New Mexico Nonbinding primary on June 3 Most recent polls: Sep 06: McCain 20% Romney 7%
New Jersey Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 22: McCain 29% Romney 14% Jan 15: McCain 29% Romney 10% Huckabee 10% Jan 13: McCain 29% Romney 9% Huckabee 11%
New Jersey Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 22: McCain 29% Romney 14% Jan 15: McCain 29% Romney 10% Huckabee 10% Jan 13: McCain 29% Romney 9% Huckabee 11%
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. John McCain (37%) 2. Mitt Romney (31%) 3. Mike Huckabee (11%)
New Hampshire Primary on January 8 1. John McCain (37%) 2. Mitt Romney (31%) 3. Mike Huckabee (11%)
Nevada Caucus on January 19 1. Mitt Romney (51%) 2. Ron Paul (14%) 3. John McCain (13%)
Nebraska Caucus on February 9 No polls have been published
Montana Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 19: McCain 5% Romney 13% Huckabee 16%
Missouri Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 24: McCain 31% Romney 21% Huckabee 6% Jan 24: McCain 26% Romney 18% Nov 15: McCain 14% Romney 17% Huckabee 12%
Mississippi Primary on March 11 No polls have been published
Minnesota Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Sep 23: McCain 22% Romney 5% Huckabee 2%
Michigan Primary on January 15 1.Mitt Romney (39%) 2. John McCain (30%) 3. Mike Huckabee (16%)
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 22: McCain 29% Romney 50%
Massachusetts Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 22: McCain 29% Romney 50%
Maryland Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 22: McCain 18% Romney 10% Huckabee 2% Aug 26: McCain 13% Romney 8%
Maryland Primary on February 12 Most recent polls: Oct 22: McCain 18% Romney 10% Huckabee 2% Aug 26: McCain 13% Romney 8%
Maine Caucus on February 1 1. Mitt Romney (52%) 2. John McCain (21%) 3. Ron Paul (19%)
Louisiana Primary on February 9 No polls have been published
Kentucky Primary on May 20 No polls have been published
Kansas Caucus on February 9 Most recent polls: May 23: McCain 13% Romney 17% Huckabee 1%
Iowa Caucus on January 3 1. Mike Huckabee (34%) 2. Mitt Romney (25%) 3. Fred Thompson (13%)
Indiana Primary on May 6 No polls have been published
Illinois Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Dec 13: McCain 12% Romney 14% Huckabee 21% Jul 09: McCain 12% Romney 11% Huckabee 2%
Idaho Primary/convention on May 27/June 12 Most recent polls: Jul 13: McCain 14% Romney 38%
Hawaii Caucus on February 19 No polls have been published
Georgia Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 10: McCain 18% Romney 14% Huckabee 31% Aug 06: McCain 7% Romney 14% Huckabee 3%
Florida Primary on January 29 1.John McCain (36%) 2. Mitt Romney (31%) Rudy Giuliani (15%)
Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published
Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published
Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published
Delaware Primary on February 5 No polls have been published
D.C. Primary on February 12 No polls have been published
D.C. Primary on February 12 No polls have been published
Connecticut Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 17: McCain 39% Romney 11% Huckabee 8% Nov 05: McCain 12% Romney 13% Huckabee 4% Oct 15: McCain 14% Romney 9% Huckabee 2%
Connecticut Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 17: McCain 39% Romney 11% Huckabee 8% Nov 05: McCain 12% Romney 13% Huckabee 4% Oct 15: McCain 14% Romney 9% Huckabee 2%
Colorado Caucus on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 23: McCain 24% Romney 43% Sep 18: McCain 12% Romney 8% Huckabee 2% Jul 18: McCain 11% Romney 9%
California Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 27: McCain 37% Romney 25% Jan 27: McCain 39% Romney 26% Jan 27: McCain 29% Romney 21%
Arkansas Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Mar 19: McCain 21% Romney 4%
Arizona Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 24: McCain 40% Romney 23% Jan 21: McCain 41% Romney 18% Huckabee 7% Nov 15: McCain 18% Romney 11% Huckabee 3%
Alaska Caucus on February 5 No polls have been published
Alabama Primary on February 5 Most recent polls: Jan 23: McCain 27% Romney 15% Jan 10: McCain 22% Romney 8% Huckabee 25% Nov 27: McCain 9% Romney 5% Huckabee 17%
CNN has reported
that Mitt Romney won the Maine caucuses with 52% vs. 21% for John McCain. Ron Paul came in a strong third
at 19%
Barack Obama is rising, but he is racing against the clock. In the states
he is campaigning in, he is gaining, but there are only two more days to
campaign. Also, even if Obama pulls even with Clinton, the details of
how the delegates are apportioned matter. In some states it is proportional
to the vote, in others it is by congressional district, etc. It is hard
to convert a certain amount of lead to a certain amount of delegates.
On the Republican side, the Mac attack goes on. It looks like John McCain
will pick up the lion's share of the delegates Tuesday because conservative Republicans are split
between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. In many states, McCain is expected to get
less than half the vote but will get all the delegates due to the Republican party's
winner-take-all rules, which were designed to produce precisely this effect--an early nominee.
Normally, the winner announces how tough it was and what formidable opponents he had
and everyone makes nice and they all fall in line. This effect might not happen in 2008
because so many conservatives as so strongly opposed to McCain due to his principled
stands on tax cuts (against), gay marriage amendment (against), illegal immigrants (allow them
to become citizens), stem cell research (for), and other hot-button issues. But it is
precisely these stands that make him so popular among independents and they make him far
and away the strongest Republican general election candidate. It is hard to remember a year in which
the core of either party was so virulently against their strongest candidate.
Here are today's polls.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Arizona
Rasmussen
Jan. 31
45%
39%
43%
34%
9%
7%
California
Suffolk U.
Feb. 1
39%
32%
8%
4%
California
Zogby
Feb. 2
41%
45%
34%
37%
12%
5%
Delaware
ARG
Feb. 1
44%
42%
41%
35%
7%
5%
Georgia
Zogby
Feb. 2
28%
48%
Missouri
ARG
Feb. 1
42%
44%
29%
27%
31%
4%
Missouri
Rasmussen
Jan. 31
47%
38%
32%
28%
29%
5%
Missouri
Zogby
Feb. 2
44%
43%
36%
22%
27%
4%
New Jersey
Monmouth U.
Feb. 1
50%
36%
55%
23%
7%
3%
New Jersey
Zogby
Feb. 2
43%
42%
54%
23%
6%
4%
New York
Marist Coll.
Jan. 31
54%
38%
61%
24%
6%
5%
New York
Rasmussen
Feb. 1
52%
34%
49%
30%
8%
4%
New York
Zogby
Feb. 2
49%
23%
8%
6%
Tennessee
Crawford Johnson Northcutt
Jan. 29
36%
31%
23%
18%
24%
4%
Tennessee
Rasmussen
Jan. 30
49%
35%
32%
29%
23%
8%
Looking at the January and February polls, here is what the Superduper Tuesday
states look like. The most recent poll is always used. If other polls were taken
within a week of it, they are all averaged equally.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count: