One more day to go. On the Republican side, the right-wing talkers
like Rush Limbaugh, Michelle Malkin, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter, and Sean Hannity are going
absolutely ape
dissing John McCain,
but to no avail. Rank-and-file
Republicans seem to like him and he appears to be cruising towards the
nomination tomorrow. He is without a doubt the strongest Republican candidate
in the general election.
It will be interesting to see how all of McCain's long-time opponents behave
if he is nominated. Will they close ranks behind him or go off and sulk.
Is ideological purity more important than winning? Usually it's the Democrats who get
involved in this type of internal battle, but this year is different.
The Democratic nomination contest is getting tighter. Several polls
show Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a statistical tie in California. Winning that one would be a
huge boost to Obama's candidacy, even if he gets only a slightly large number
of delegates. One thing is increasingly clear: it won't be all over tomorrow
for the Democrats. Barring something very unusual, the race will continue into
February and probably beyond.
On the subject of winning, what exactly does that mean? Getting more votes nationwide?
Getting more delegates? Winning a plurality in more states? Winning a set of states with
more electoral votes than your opponent? Expect both sides to claim victory based on
one or more of these metrics.
In case you forgot already, both sides claimed victory in the Nevada caucuses, using different criteria.
Expect more of the same Wednesday.
While hotly contested Democratic primaries are nothing new, this one is different
because the candidates are in virtually total agreement on all the issues. As a
consequence, many couples, families and friends are split, as reported in the
NY Times.
A long, drawn-out primary fight, possibly ending with a credentials fight at the Denver convention would dim
Democrats hopes of regaining the White House, with each side blaming the other.
Here are today's polls.
State
Pollster
End date
Clinton
Obama
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Arizona
Mason-Dixon
Feb. 1
43%
41%
California
ARG
Feb. 2
47%
39%
32%
33%
16%
8%
California
Mason-Dixon
Feb. 1
45%
36%
40%
31%
13%
3%
California
Rasmussen
Feb. 2
44%
45%
38%
38%
10%
6%
California
Suffolk U.
Feb. 3
40%
39%
Georgia
Insider Advantage
Feb. 2
36%
51%
29%
30%
28%
2%
Georgia
Mason-Dixon
Feb. 1
41%
47%
33%
27%
18%
4%
Georgia
Rasmussen
Feb. 2
37%
52%
31%
29%
28%
6%
Illinois
Market Shares
Jan. 31
24%
55%
43%
20%
15%
4%
Missouri
Mason-Dixon
Feb. 1
47%
41%
37%
24%
27%
1%
New Jersey
Mason-Dixon
Feb. 1
46%
39%
46%
31%
5%
4%
Oklahoma
Sooner Poll
Jan. 30
41%
17%
40%
17%
19%
3%
Tennessee
Insider Advantage
Feb. 2
55%
35%
32%
22%
30%
6%
Utah
Dan Jones
Feb. 1
29%
53%
4%
84%
If we collect all the January and February polls and average all the polls within
a week of the most recent one, here is what we get.
CNN is keeping track of the delegates for the
Democrats
and for the
Republicans.
Note that other sources may differ because CNN is trying to count the PLEOs (Party Leaders and
Elected Officials) and other unpledged delegates.
When different reporters call a PLEO and hear "Well, I like Hillary,
but Barack has his charms too" they may score it differently.
Here is CNN's count:
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