Dem
47
GOP
53
Remember how Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was imminently going to become U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Elise Stefanik? After all, she was nominated and given the thumbs-up by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Under those conditions, even Jack the Ripper would have all 53 Republican votes in the Senate when it came time for final confirmation. Well, yesterday, it all came crashing down for the Representative, as Donald Trump pulled the nomination.
This is, of course, a huge blow to Stefanik's previously upward trajectory. She really wanted this gig because it would have increased her profile and would have given her some claim to foreign policy experience. The next rung on the ladder was presumably a Cabinet position in the next Republican administration (or in the latter years of the current Republican administration), and then a presidential run. Now, the plan is in shambles. Further, because Stefanik was expecting to leave the House, she gave up her position in leadership, succeeded as the No. 4 Republican by Lisa McClain (R-MI). McClain is not going to resign as a gift to Stefanik, and the House Republican Conference is not going to vote to fire McClain and replace her with Stefanik, either. So, the would-be ambassador just became a backbencher again. Whether she can resume climbing up the ladder is an excellent question, especially since she stepped on some toes in the past few months.
Once Stefanik learned which way the winds were blowing, she desperately tried to convince Trump to change his mind, reminding him of how loyal she's been to him and to MAGAism. But, as always, loyalty is a one-way street with Trump. Throwing Stefanik (and, very possibly, her career) under the bus served his needs, and so that is what happened, her needs be damned.
So, how did this serve his needs? There are almost certainly three answers to that question, which happen to exist in something of a chronological relationship to each other. The short-term concern is the special elections in Florida next week. We have pointed out some of the signs that Randy Fine (R) might just be in trouble in FL-06, despite the district being ruby red, and now there's an actual poll that backs that up. It's from St. Pete Polls, which isn't a great pollster, and which was only able to put together a fairly small sample of FL-06 voters. Still, an "only OK" poll is better than no poll. And St. Pete Polls found that 48% of voters back Fine, while 44% back his Democratic opponent Josh Weil. That's well within the margin of error, which is 4.9% because of the small sample size. You would still have to wager on Fine to hold on, but even if he wins a fairly close one, that's still pretty bad news for the administration.
This brings us to the second purpose served by this change of course. As we have written a hundred times, the Republicans' margin of error in the House is tiny. It gets even tinier if Stefanik leaves, of course, and at a time that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is trying to move some very tough legislation. And making things worse is that if Republican members see the results on Tuesday, and conclude (quite reasonably) that voters are punishing Trumpism, they will be more likely to break ranks. If Susan Crawford wallops Brad Schimel in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election Tuesday, it would have the same effect. It only takes a few purple-district GOPers to throw a giant wrench into the works. So, Trump needs as much insurance as he can muster up.
And, finally, there is the third reason that Stefanik needed to stay put. The Republicans just lost an R+15 state senate district in Pennsylvania. They look to be facing a nailbiter (and a possible loss) in FL-06, which is also R+15. Stefanik's district, NY-21, is R+8. In an environment where even an R+15 seat isn't safe, an R+8 seat REALLY isn't safe. If Stefanik gives her seat up, there's no guarantee that the Republicans get it back. Currently, the House is 218R, 213D. Now imagine this not-impossible scenario: (1) the two special elections in Florida next week go 1R, 1D; (2) the Democrats hold the D+15 and D+23 seats currently vacant due to the deaths of Democratic members; and (3) Stefanik vacates her seat and it flips to the Democrats. If this is what came to pass, then the House would be 218R, 217D. Not only would every single Republican have a veto, but if one Republican dies, or gets caught breaking the law, or decides to quit for some other job, then you have an evenly split House, and a power-sharing arrangement. This possibility, while not likely, is realistic enough that Trump and Johnson could not countenance it. So, under the bus goes Stefanik, who becomes the latest person to learn the true cost of making a deal with the devil. (Z)