Mar.25

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week, #40: Phil Murphy

We have a bunch of pending projects sitting on the back burner, and it is time to bring some of them to the front burner. So, consistent with the item above, we're going to start running down the potential Democratic candidates for 2028, one each Monday. Since we've got plenty of time before the election, we're going to cast our net widely, and do the top 40 contenders. Where do we get that list? Well, a couple of months back, we asked readers to vote for it.

We begin with the fellow that readers voted 40th most likely to get the blue team's nod in 2028. That's pretty low, but it still outpaced a bunch of folks who didn't even make the cut, like Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, and Dwayne Johnson. And so, we give you: Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ).

• Full Name: Philip Dunton Murphy
  
  
• Age on January 20, 2029: 71
  
  
• Background: Born to a lower-middle-class Irish-American family in Massachusetts, Murphy was a hard worker and a smart fellow, and managed to secure admission to Harvard, graduating with a B.A. in Economics in 1979. He followed that with an MBA from Penn's Wharton School in 1983.
  
  Following his college career, Murphy commenced a very successful career with Goldman Sachs, during which he held many posts, rose high in the ranks of the organization, and amassed a personal fortune said to be in excess of $100 million.
  
  
• Political Experience: Murphy started his political career in the rich guy way, serving in a couple of positions on various civic boards, then raising money for the DNC ($300 million, in total), and then reaping the reward of his fundraising with appointment as ambassador to Germany during the Obama years.
  
  Friends did not see Murphy as the type to actually appear on a ballot, but he decided to run for governor of New Jersey in 2017, and he won in a walk, 56%-42% over then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R). Murphy's reelection was far less lopsided; he won in 2021, 51% to 48% over Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R).
  
  
• Signature Issue(s): Increasing taxes, particularly on easy targets like the wealthy and cigarette smokers.
  
  
• What Would His Pitch Be?: "I am a much better CEO for USA, Inc. than Donald Trump."
  
  
• Instructive Quote: "Two people may not like each other and can't work together. Their mutual dislike is their problem. I don't let it become mine. I'll be the man in the middle and the three of us can work out something everybody is happy with."
  
  
• Completely Trivial Fact: Murphy's best-known fan is... rocker Jon Bon Jovi, who has performed multiple concerts to rally support for the Governor.
  
  
• Recent News: Murphy is known for putting his foot in his mouth, enough that local reporters have coined the term "Murphy-isms." He did it again recently, casually suggesting that he might be harboring an undocumented immigrant in his house in defiance of the Trump administration, and daring Trump border guru Tom Homan to "come and get her." This infuriated anti-immigration voters in New Jersey, and did not please pro-immigration voters, who felt that Murphy was using this person as a political prop. Things did not get better when Murphy explained that there actually is no undocumented immigrant in his house... maybe.
  
  
• Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) He's a businessman with experience in international finance, and the U.S. economy and its trade relationships with other countries figure to be in pretty shabby condition by 2029; (2) He's got diplomatic experience, and the country's diplomatic relationships figure to be in pretty shabby condition by 2029; and (3) He's a bland white guy in a year where many Democratic primary voters may be looking for a bland white guy.
  
  
• Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) It's an image-driven world, and in approximately 100% of photos and TV appearances, Murphy looks like the world's biggest dork; (2) His fortune was built, at least in part, on the back of sweatshop labor in China, which will not play well with the Democratic base; and (3) Murphy is a little old to be commencing a term that could last 8 years, particularly given what happened with Joe Biden.
  
  
• Polls: Murphy is not a prominent enough name to be asked about in polls of the 2028 field. However, there are approval rating polls for him, and they are... not good. He's sitting at roughly 40% approval, which puts him near the bottom of the heap among Democratic governors. He's unpopular enough that the Republicans have a real chance to reclaim the governorship later this year.
  
  
• How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Murphy running for president; here are some of those responses:
  
  
  • K.J.O. in Brookdale, NJ: I do not think Phil Murphy would make a good presidential candidate. After two terms as New Jersey governor I cannot think of anything he has done. While it is not as bad as that sounds, he certainly was not in the newspaper publicizing his accomplishments. Our offshore windpower project went belly-up. I am still disappointed with his plans to use his political power to install his wife as senator for New Jersey. In fact, that failure shows he does not have political power. He was an improvement over several past governors such as Christine Todd Whitman, Chris Christie and James McGreevey, but after two terms as governor I have no idea what he stands for and cannot imagine Phil on the campaign trail inspiring people to vote for him.
    
    
  • D.K. in New York City, NY: I am a lifelong New Jersey resident. I voted for Murphy twice. He is a decent, honest and effective governor. He is not the best politician, meaning he leads from the middle. New Jersey is a prosperous middle-class state. It is extremely diverse. Governor Murphy keeps most of the people satisfied most of the time. His constituency is moderate Democrats and reasonable Republicans. I consider that a good thing in many ways for a governor, but it will not cut it on the national level. He is like Al Gore, but with less personality and better executive skills.
    
    
  • M.S. in Dunellen, NJ: As a lifelong Jerseyan, I have found Murphy to be a competent but unremarkable governor. (Around here, unremarkable can actually be a compliment.) I don't think he would do well on a national stage, though. Even here, he is sometimes seen as out of touch and he seems to struggle to relate to the average person in an authentic way (even his smile can come across as forced and unnatural). I've appreciated his leadership, especially during the pandemic, but I don't see him doing well in a presidential campaign. I wouldn't mind being wrong about that, though!
    
    
  • B.S. in Stanhope, NJ: If Murphy's wife hadn't tried to muscle her way into the U.S. Senate seat now held by Andy Kim (D), I would've said he might be a viable presidential candidate in 2028. But that scheme showed his political instincts aren't quite shrewd and authentic enough for today's Democratic Party. Another black mark for me was his disastrous unpreparedness for the first major snowstorm of his governorship—highways were clogged for many hours until cars could be dug out. There was no excuse for being caught so flat-footed. He's a very bland rich white guy and a decent enough governor, but I question his appeal to a despondent Democratic Party looking for an anti-Trump.
    
    
  • K.W. in Trenton, NJ: Short answer: No way! And I voted for the guy twice. He's just another empty suit/traditional politician who makes promises and does not really improve things for the average person.
    
    New Jersey Transit is still a disaster (expensive, too many delays). And his environmental record is now officially a bust. We are also heading backwards with regards to EV credits/tax incentives. (I've driven EVs since 2012 and have two in my garage, so I'm a bit familiar.)
    
    
  • M.M. in San Diego, CA: No, not unless he became ubiquitous in any and all media for the next three years. Although I know his name, I have never seen a photo of him or heard him speak. While he may be the perfect candidate, if I, a person who follows politics closely, can't pick him out of a lineup, then the general public will just shrug him off. Without prior name recognition, he couldn't get elected. If he runs in 2028, then he might have a chance in 2032, if feasible (I don't even know how old he is... now I'm going to look him up).
    
    
  • S.P. in Harrisburg, PA: I am not overly familiar with Phil Murphy, but he seems like a northeastern tax-and-spend Democrat. If someone like that is the nominee, the 2028 election would be the exact repeat of the 1988 election.
    
    
  • J.C. in Honolulu, HI: Phil Who?
  
  
• The Bottom Line: Again, we're casting a broad net, which means we're going to end up writing about some pretty poor candidates. We think Murphy is one of those; too many demerits to be viable.

Next week, it's #39 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). If readers have comments about him running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.

Meanwhile, you're not going to believe what we move from the back burner to the front burner tomorrow. (Z)