Mar.25

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An Early Look at the Democratic 2028 Presidential Field

The 2028 presidential race began on Nov. 6, 2024, and is now quietly in swing. This is the invisible primary phase, where POTUS-wannabes test the waters, talk to donors, and try to raise their profiles. The election may be years away, and yet, the DNC will soon need to start preparing for the 2028 presidential primaries.

In the spirit of gearing up to cover the 2028 horse race, The Washington Post's Aaron Blake has made a list of the Top 12 contenders:

12. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN): Blake: Let's face it. Walz added nothing to the ticket. He was supposed to connect with working-class dads and bring them home to the Democrats. He didn't. He didn't stumble, but a presidential candidate needs to be inspiring in some way. He's not. He'll probably run for a third term as governor and then call it quits. Us: It's a tough assessment, but it's probably right.
    
    
13. Gov. Josh Stein (D-NC): Blake: Imagine, a moderate Jewish AG named Josh S. wins a swing state commandingly. It happened, not once, but twice. Stein will be up for reelection in 2028. He'll probably go for that for the time being. Us: We agree again.
    
    
14. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY): Blake: A Democrat is elected governor in a red state and the Democrats go gaga. But going national is a whole different kettle of catfish. Us: Well, it worked for Carter and Clinton. We'd rank Beshear higher on the list. His pitch will be "I can bring in non-Trumpy Republicans and win in the South, especially Georgia and North Carolina." Maybe he can. He first has to decide if he wants to run for Mitch McConnell's Senate seat in 2026. He said he didn't, but he could change his mind.
    
    
15. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): Blake: He's very ambitious and definitely wants to be president. Other Californians have done it (Nixon, Reagan). But if Bernie Sanders is Mr. Authentic, he is Mr. Slick. Us: Newsom might be able to win a Democratic primary in a fragmented field, but he is much too woke and slick to win a general election unless the Republican is very unpopular. A lot of people were moaning about Biden vs. Trump, saying they didn't want either of them. They will pine for that matchup if 2028 is Newsom vs. DeSantis.
    
    
16. Sen. Raphael Warnock: Blake: He eked out a couple of narrow wins in a red state, so Democrats are taking a closer look at him. But they probably want him to hold his Senate seat until times are less turbulent and there is less at stake. Us: Like it or not, 2028 is the year of the white man for the Democrats. A white female veep is fine (looking at you, Big Gretch), but failing to pick a white man would be political malpractice in 2028.
    
    
17. Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD): Blake: Moore is a Black man so people are comparing him to Barack Obama. But Barack Obama was a once-in-a-generation brilliant politician. Moore is not. Us: Moore could run for president some day when times are more placid, but not 2028.
    
    
18. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): Blake: He's the most intriguing new senator and he is not up in 2028, so he wouldn't have to give up a Senate seat to run: Us: A young, telegenic mostly liberal except on the border, Latino Marine Corps veteran and Harvard graduate who grew up dirt poor and is from a key swing state. Whoa! What else does he need? He will have been in the Senate for 4 years in 2028—exactly the same as Barack Obama in 2008. If he jumps in, he could be a contender, even in a "white man" year.
    
    
19. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA): Blake: He is seen as a liberal but has a strong independent streak. He is more working-class than anyone else on the list except Gallego. He is very tall and has a commanding personality. Us: He had a crippling stroke. That's all the Republicans will talk about. It is sad, but disqualifying. And that's before his heel turn toward Trumpism, which has alienated much of his (former) base. He's way too high on the list.
    
    
20. Kamala Harris: Blake: Her loss was a disappointment, but with Biden weighing her down, she still did a respectable job. The big question is: Will she run for governor of California in 2026 instead of for president in 2028? Us: Adlai Stevenson ran twice. Adlai Stevenson lost twice. Does she want to win the Adlai Stevenson Award? If she runs for governor, she would probably win. To us that makes more sense. She's young enough that she could run for president in 2036.
    
    
21. Pete Buttigieg: Blake: He is a great campaign surrogate and is comfortable going into the foxes' den and holding them at bay. He is very knowledgeable and, at 43 years of age, is a big contrast with all the octogenarians. Us: He's gay. That's six bridges too far. If he were straight, he'd be a great pick. Maybe someday, but running for either governor or senator of Michigan makes more sense, although he would be tarred as a carpetbagger.
    
    
22. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): Blake: Her stock faltered in 2024 when Harris lost. Would the Democrats try with another woman? Us: We agree. If she runs, the intention should be that she is aiming for the #2 slot. That would be OK, given the dynamics likely to be in play in 2028.
    
    
23. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA): Blake: A lot of Democrats are thinking: "What if ...?" If Shapiro had been on the ticket, Harris would probably have carried Pennsylvania and maybe the Blue Wall. He sounds a lot like Obama, and maybe that is not a bad thing. Us: He is young, has a dynamic personality, is an extremely good speaker, and is a generally likeable guy. Harris didn't pick him because he came over as too ambitious. That's not a bad thing for a presidential candidate, though. He's Jewish and a big supporter of Israel. Depending on the state of the Middle East in 2028, that could play a role.

There you have it. We would guess that the favorites are Beshear, Gallego, and maybe Shapiro if the Middle East is calm. One guy who is not on the list is Mark Cuban. Although he is a (self-made) billionaire, he would be a plausible candidate to run on an anti-billionaire platform. Nick Hanauer already wrote it for him. Suppose he proposed going back to the Eisenhower era of a 91% marginal tax rate. Then throw in a proposed 95% estate tax above a billion dollars. Cuban would get a lot of respect from the "businessmen must be smart" crowd but also from people who think he might actually clamp down on billionaires before the peasants get out their pitchforks and burn them all to death. He would certainly be a very unusual candidate. (V)