Dem
47
GOP
53
We are now one week removed from the two special elections in Florida that will fill the seats left vacant by Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz. Since these races are (apparently) not being polled, this is about as close as one can get to experiencing what politics was like before 1950 or so, when there was at least some mystery surrounding Election Day results.
Thus far, the two Democrats running have been raising money like gangbusters. Gay Valimont, who is running on gun control in the ruby-red (R+19) FL-01, has hauled in about $6.5 million. And Josh Weil, who is running in the slightly less red (R+14) FL-06, has brought in nearly $10 million.
That is quite a lot for a House race, especially since both districts are relatively cheap media markets. That said, one cannot assign too much meaning to those totals, impressive as they are. First, it's hard to translate money into votes, and the more money spent, the less the return per dollar, generally speaking. Second, most of that money is coming from Democrats out of state who are looking for ways to channel their energy into... something, anything. Needless to say, most of these donors cannot vote in the actual elections.
That said, there is one very faint glimmer of hope for Democrats who would really like to see at least one of the two seats flip. The Republican running in the less red of the two districts, Randy Fine, has been raising money at an exceedingly anemic pace—less than $600,000 so far, or about 1/16th of his opponent's take. That means that Fine did not get commercials on the air until this week, that he doesn't have much money for get-out-the-vote efforts, and that he's not inspiring much enthusiasm among Republicans. True, he's a Trumper, and most Trumpers who have extra money burning a hole in their pockets probably spend it on Trump Bibles, or Trump guitars, or whatever the latest grift is. Still, being outraised by that big a margin is pretty terrible.
The model that Democrats are looking to here is the special election in PA-18, back in March 2018. In that one, Democrat Conor Lamb pulled the upset over Trumpy Republican Rick Saccone, despite the district being R+11. Obviously, R+11 is within shouting distance of FL-06's R+14. We would guess that Trump has not been in office (again) for long enough, or done harm enough, to really get rank-and-file voters' blood boiling. Sure, the politics-watchers are mad, but there aren't enough of them to carry the day. That said, with nearly $10 million to burn, maybe Weil can get some voters to the polls who would not normally vote in a special election. It takes around 100,000 votes to win a special congressional election, which is rather less daunting than the 80 million votes it takes to win a presidential election. (Z)