Dem
47
GOP
53
As we have mentioned repeatedly, the House is up for grabs in 2026. If history is any guide, maybe the odds favor the Democrats. The Senate is a steeper hill for the Democrats to climb. Consequently, there will be a huge battle nationwide for the House, whereas the Senate battle will be confined to maybe half a dozen states in the end.
Last week, the DCCC announced its frontline members, those vulnerable members who will get extra support. Here is the list. The DCCC has not yet released its list of top targets, those vulnerable Republicans it intends to try defeating.
The NRCC is reversing the order. It has now announced its top Democratic targets, but not yet its list of vulnerable incumbents to be defended. Here is the list of NRCC targets.
| District | District | PVI | DCCC list? | 2024 | Notes on the district |
| Adam Gray | CA-13 | D+4 | Yes | 0.1% | Majority Latino district in the Central Valley from Tracy to Fresno |
| Derek Tran | CA-45 | D+2 | Yes | 0.2% | Wealthy district running from Yorba Linda to Huntington Beach |
| Jared Golden | ME-02 | R+6 | Yes | 0.5% | Nearly all-white very large rural district covering 92% of Maine |
| Marcy Kaptur | OH-09 | R+3 | Yes | 0.7% | "Snake by the Lake" south of Lake Erie running west to Indiana |
| Don Davis | NC-01 | D+2 | Yes | 1.7% | Urban district running south from Virginia to almost the Research Triangle |
| Emilia Sykes | OH-13 | R+1 | Yes | 2.2% | Mostly white district covering Stark and Summit Counties around Akron |
| Josh Riley | NY-19 | EVEN | Yes | 2.2% | White suburban district covering mid-Hudson Valley and west to Ithaca |
| Laura Gillen | NY-04 | D+5 | Yes | 2.3% | Very wealthy, urban, white and Latino district on western Long Island |
| Vicente Gonzalez | TX-34 | D+9 | Yes | 2.6% | Poor urban Latino district on the Gulf of Mexico south of Corpus Christi |
| George Whitesides | CA-27 | D+4 | Yes | 2.6% | Wealthy white and Latino district in northern L.A. County and eastward |
| Eugene Vindman | VA-07 | D+1 | Yes | 2.7% | Wealthy white, Black, and Latino district between D.C. and Richmond |
| Dave Min | CA-47 | D+3 | Yes | 2.8% | Wealthy white and Asian district from Long Beach to Orange County |
| Susie Lee | NV-03 | D+1 | Yes | 2.8% | White, Asian, Latino district from south Las Vegas to Bullhead City |
| Josh Harder | CA-09 | D+5 | Yes | 3.6% | Latino and white district in the northern Central Valley |
| Tom Suozzi | NY-03 | D+2 | Yes | 3.6% | Very, very wealthy urban, white and Asian district on northwest Long Island |
| Marie Perez | WA-03 | R+5 | Yes | 3.8% | Predominantly white district in southwestern corner of Washington |
| Gabe Vasquez | NM-02 | D+1 | Yes | 4.2% | Urban Latino and white district running from Albuquerque to Mexico |
| Jared Moskowitz | FL-23 | D+5 | No | 4.7% | High urban district from Boca Raton to Ft. Lauderdale, majority white |
| Nellie Pou | NJ-08 | D+22 | Yes | 4.9% | Urban, well-off district from Fort Lee running northwest for 20 miles |
| Henry Cuellar | TX-28 | D+3 | Yes | 5.6% | Heavily Latino district running southwest from San Antonio to Mexico |
| Kristen Rivet | MI-08 | R+1 | Yes | 6.7% | Mostly white county running northwest from Flint to Bay City and north |
| Dina Titus | NV-01 | D+3 | Yes | 7.5% | White and Latino urban district with eastern Las Vegas and going south |
| Steven Horsford | NV-04 | D+3 | Yes | 8.0% | White and Latino district from northern Las Vegas halfway up the state |
| Chris Pappas | NH-01 | EVEN | No | 8.1% | Largely white, predominantly urban district in the eastern third of the state |
| Frank Mrvan | IN-01 | D+3 | Yes | 8.5% | Gary, IN, and its eastern suburbs, close to Chicago |
| Darren Soto | FL-09 | D+8 | No | 12.5% | Majority Latino district south of Orlando |
The overlap with the DCCC's list is pretty good, but not perfect. The Republicans see Reps. Darren Soto (D-FL), Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) and Chris Pappas (D-NH) as vulnerable. The Democrats think they are in good shape. On the other hand, the Democrats think that Reps. Janelle Bynum (D-OR), Jahana Hayes (D-CT) and John Mannion (D-NY) are vulnerable but the Republicans don't think they can be beaten. On the other 23, the parties agree these will be the key battles in 2026.
Interesting enough, Erin Covey over at the Cook Political Report, also has a list of districts out, but she did it differently. She looked for Democrats in districts Trump won and Republicans in districts Harris won. As partisanship becomes everything, these folks are definitely targets. Here are the Democrats in Trumpy districts.
| Incumbent | District | Margin | Trump's margin | Overperformance |
| Susie Lee | NV-03 | 2.8% | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| Don Davis | NC-01 | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| Josh Harder | CA-09 | 3.6% | 1.8% | 5.4% |
| Adam Gray | CA-13 | 0.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% |
| Gabe Vasquez | NM-02 | 4.2% | 1.8% | 6.0% |
| Nellie Pou | NJ-09 | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6.0% |
| Vicente Gonzalez | TX-34 | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.0% |
| Marie Perez | WA-03 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 7.1% |
| Marcy Kaptur | OH-09 | 0.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% |
| Tom Suozzi | NY-03 | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.9% |
| Kristen Rivet | MI-08 | 6.7% | 2.0% | 8.7% |
| Jared Golden | ME-02 | 0.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% |
| Henry Cuellar | TX-28 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
Gee, these names look familiar for some reason. They all occur in both the DCCC and NRCC lists. These are super vulnerable incumbents. On the other hand, with Trump not on the ballot in 2026, maybe not so much. They won even with Trump on the ballot, so without him, it might be easier. Who knows?
Now the reverse list, Republicans in Harris districts. Here it is.
| Incumbent | District | Margin | Harris' margin | Overperformance |
| Don Bacon | NE-02 | 1.9% | 4.6% | 6.5% |
| Mike Lawler | NY-17 | 6.3% | 0.6% | 6.9% |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | PA-01 | 12.8% | 0.3% | 13.1% |
Clearly, the Democrats' target list is a lot smaller than the Republicans' list and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) won by 12.8 points in a district Harris barely carried. Still, all in all, these tables should give you a good idea of where the action is likely to be in 2026. (V)