Dem
47
GOP
53
J.D. Vance has been vice president for less than 2 months but already he appears to be the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028. But remember, in politics, a week is a long time.
In the view of many of Trump's aides and most fervent supporters, Trump broke the old Republican Party and Vance is the vehicle for locking in Trump's worldview for at least a decade. Among other things, Vance's dressing down Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office drew cheers from the faithful. His unswerving loyalty to Trump is also being well received among the MAGA Militia. Even better is that Donald Trump Jr. is "over the moon" with Vance's performance so far. Junior could be a competitor in 2028, so it is important that he is happy with Vance and won't jump in. Vance has also impressed the oligarchs.
At the CPAC conference, Vance got 61% in the straw poll of who the next nominee should be. Steve Bannon was second at 12%. Matt Boyle, Washington Bureau chief for Breitbart News, said: "Vance is clearly the far, runaway frontrunner, and no one else can hold a candle to him right now." MAGAmedia star Jack Posobiec refers to Vance as "48."
Back on Planet Reality, a lot of Trump support came because many voters see Trump as a persuasive showman. Whether the Yale-educated, Silicon Valley venture capitalist can convince millions of blue-collar voters to love him is far from clear. Instead of posting all caps rants to eX-Twitter, Vance is more likely to go for carefully tailored legal briefs that his former Yale professors would be proud of. If he is seen as a wonk, that probably won't help much with Trump's base. Also, Vance now has a target on his back. Folks like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who have other ideas about who the nominee should be, are going to be taking aim at it.
Successful handoffs are hard to do. Bill Clinton wasn't able to hand the job to Al Gore in 2000. Joe Biden couldn't transfer it to Kamala Harris in 2024. Each president has his own strengths and if the new candidate is not a good fit for their base, it doesn't work. (V)