Dem
47
GOP
53
Time, once again, for our oh-so-common caveat: This is NOT our area of expertise. But yesterday, with the blessing of the Trump administration, Israel launched a massive missile assault on Khan Younis' Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza. Somewhere between 200 and 326 Gazans were killed, many of them children.
The NBC News headline for their item on the news is: "Israeli strikes kill hundreds in Gaza as ceasefire teeters on the brink." Teeters on the brink? We are not sure in what world it can be claimed that, after an attack that kills multiple hundreds of people, a ceasefire is still in effect, or might still be in effect. In fact, that would seem to be the literal opposite of a ceasefire. And given that Israel is attacking, and that the Trump administration approved, and that Hamas tends to think in "eye for an eye" terms, then we are forced to conclude that the war is back on. But again, not our area, so maybe there is something we don't know.
If the war is indeed back on, then it will presumably linger for a long time. Maybe it ends after some additional period of senseless violence and killing, after the combatants are once again exhausted. Or maybe it ends with the fall of the Israeli government, as (enough) members of the Knesset conclude that PM Benjamin Netanyahu will never be able (or be willing?) to secure peace. Or maybe it ends with the removal of the Gazans, with the Israeli armed forces doing the dirty work and the Trump administration applauding from the sidelines.
Any of these things looks possible to us. What does not look possible is some sort of diplomatic breakthrough, courtesy of the Trump administration. After all, Team Trump, led by Steve Witkoff, took their best shot and apparently came up short. Further, any American-negotiated ceasefire would have to come with security guarantees, and there is absolutely no chance that Hamas could ever trust this administration.
As to the domestic political impact, the people who are pro-Palestine tend to be Democrats. If the war is extended through next year, maybe some of them will be motivated to get out and vote (or to return to the fold) to punish the Trump administration. It is also possible that an extended war in Israel could contribute to an overall sense that Trump = chaos, and could help to drag him down across many demographics. What we don't see is how a war in Gaza can help the administration politically, especially given Trump's brash promises that he would bring peace to the region on Day 1. (Z)