Mar.18

electoral-vote.com

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An Early Look at the 2026 Senate Races

The Hill has a far-too-early rundown of the 35 Senate races. Of these, 33 are regular elections. Florida and Ohio have special elections resulting from the now-filled vacancies left behind by Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, respectively. Here is the lay of Senateland. You can always find the state of the Senate races by clicking on "Senate Candidates" just above Maine (in the blue bar above the map). We update this regularly when there is relevant news.

• Michigan: This is the second cycle that a Michigan senator has tossed in the towel. Last time, it was Debbie Stabenow; this time, it is Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) is term-limited, so in Jan. 2027 Michigan will have a whole new team in place. Pete Buttigieg has decided to pass on both the senatorial and gubernatorial races in order to get his 2028 presidential campaign up and running early. Whitmer has also taken a pass on a Senate seat for which she would be the overwhelming favorite. Instead she is running for (probably vice) president in 2028.
  
  State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) is going to run for the Senate. AG Dana Nessel (D) might also run, but she hasn't announced yet. Either of these women would be strong candidates. The Republican bench is thin in Michigan. Failed gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon might try for the Senate. Mike Rogers tried in 2024, and failed, but could try again. Rep. John James (R-MI) finally got elected to the House after multiple tries at the Senate and might be reluctant to give up a House seat he could probably hold for a shot at a Senate seat where he would be an underdog. With a strong Democratic bench and a weak Republican bench, this one leans Democratic.
  
  
• Minnesota: Sen. Tina Smith (DFL-MN) was appointed to the Senate when Democrats railroaded Al Franken into resigning after a whiff of a #MeToo scandal. When a Democrat's nose becomes even slightly less than "clean," it is fatal. When a Republican lies 20 times and breaks 5 laws, it's just your average Tuesday. Smith never really wanted to be a senator but she did her duty as a good team player. She still doesn't like being a senator and is retiring so someone who actually wants the job can get it. Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) doesn't want the job either, and is likely to try to keep his current job (no term limits in Minnesota).
  
  Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN) definitely wants the job and is already in. Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) is probably in. Flanagan has a bit of Native American blood and Craig is a lesbian, so Democrats can play the identity politics game if they like. No top-flight Republicans seem interested. Royce White, a former "NBA player" (he played 9 whole minutes), ran in 2024 and was crushed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN). He could try again. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze is in, but nobody has ever heard of him. Likely Democratic.
  
  
• New Hampshire: The unexpected retirement of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) could be a real problem for the Democrats. The most likely Democratic candidate is Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), who represents the eastern third of the state. There is no obvious alternative and New Hampshire is sort of bluish, so the DNC will probably talk Pappas into going for a likely promotion. The Granite State's other House member is Maggie Goodlander, but she is currently in the third month of her first term. That's a little early to be shooting for a promotion; she'll probably wait until Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) retires.
  
  The Republican bench is loaded. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) used to be a senator and is up for reelection, so she has a choice to make. Running for reelection would be the safer course and she could probably win. The Senate would be iffier. Tough call for her. If former governor Chris Sununu runs, he would be formidable but, like Buttigieg and Whitmer, he may be gearing up for the presidential race in 2028. Then there is Scott Brown, who seems to have an affinity for New Hampshire, even though he used to be a senator from Massachusetts. He doesn't have a lot of history with New Hampshire. Maybe he thinks the locals won't notice. New Hampshire is most definitely not Massachusetts and we suspect they will notice instantly. If Ayotte takes the easy route and runs for reelection, Sununu concentrates on 2028, and Brown comes to his senses, then Pappas will win, so the election leans slightly Democratic. If Ayotte or Sununu jump in, it will be a toss-up.
  

• Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was the longest-serving Senate majority leader ever. He liked his job and was popular with his caucus. But he was having health issues and at 83 knows all too well what happened to Dianne Feinstein. He does not want to go out in a wheelchair, or worse, on a stretcher. So he will head off to the Home for Aged Turtles in Jan. 2027. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) would have been a very strong candidate, but has decided to skip the race to prepare for the 2028 presidential race. He dreams of Jimmy Carter on odd nights and Bill Clinton on even nights. If the Democrats are desperate enough, they might ditch their ideology and identity politics and nominate a moderate straight white Christian man who could pull in a lot of disaffected Republicans, just as Carter and Clinton did. Absent a change of mind, we can expect a vigorous Republican primary with the winner gliding to election since the Democrats have no one. Strongly Republican.
  

• Georgia: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is in for the fight of his life. He won in 2020 because the Libertarian Party candidate ate just enough of David Perdue's vote to elect Ossoff. Also, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was on the ticket along with him, which pulled many Black voters to the polls. This time Ossoff is on his own. If Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) runs, Ossoff will have an uphill battle unless there is a strong blue wave. However, Kemp, like Beshear, Buttigieg, Sununu, and Whitmer, may decide better a long-shot bid for president than a lifetime job in the Senate. It kind of shows you how little respect smart professional politicians have for the Senate. If Kemp bows out and the Democrats nominate Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) for governor, Black turnout may again skyrocket and that could just save Jon's oss. Probably a toss-up depending on who's in and who's out.
  

• Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is reasonably popular, but if former representative Mary Peltola (D) runs, it could be a real fight. After all, she has already won statewide and Alaska has a wonky ranked-choice election. If Peltola runs for governor instead, Sullivan is safe. All in all, leans Republican.
  
  
• Florida: Florida has become a red state, but appointed senators don't have a good track record. Only about 40% make it when they have to face the voters. Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) has won statewide as AG, but the Senate is national politics, not law and order. The Democrats' problem is that although Moody is not well known, they don't have an ideal candidate. Maybe Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could run again, although she did poorly against the unpopular Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) in 2024. Leans Republican.
  
  
• Maine: This is the Democrats' second-best pickup opportunity. Maine is a blue state and Collins is an anachronism, a Rockefeller Republican in an age when they are as dead as Herbert Hoover. She is personally well liked, but the political winds have shifted and partisanship may overpower everything. Democrats are praying (or whatever they do Sunday morning) that Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) jumps in. She would be a very tough competitor and might finally be the one to take down Collins. Money will flow like water. This race will absorb hundreds of millions of dollars from out of state. The only trouble is that there is not enough television time in this relatively cheap media market to soak up all that money. Since the Republicans have a 6-vote margin in the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) may give Collins permission to repeatedly vote against the party line this year to help her next year.
  
  
• Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) is up, but if former senator Jon Tester challenges him, in a blue wave, Tester has a chance. Absent Tester, Daines is safe.
  
  
• Ohio: Same as Montana. If former senator Sherrod Brown challenges Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Brown has a chance. But this one has a wrinkle. Husted wasn't elected to the Senate. He was appointed when J.D. Vance resigned. Again, it would take a blue wave for Brown to win, but if Donald Trump and Elon Musk wreck the economy, it could happen.
  
  
• North Carolina: This is the number one pickup opportunity for the Democrats. They have three things going for them. First, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is toeing the party line pretty well in the Senate and this is really angering North Carolina Democrats. Second, Tillis doesn't have decades of love to fall back on, as Susan Collins does. He has only won twice before and both wins were close (1.56 points in 2014 and 1.75 points in 2020). Third, former governor Roy Cooper is very popular, even with Republicans, and it wouldn't take much of a blue wave to sweep Cooper in. Initial polls of a Cooper-Tillis race have Cooper ahead by a substantial margin. Cooper is playing his cards close to his vest, but every Democrat of any consequence is probably calling him at least once a week urging him to jump in. He doesn't have to hurry, though, since as a recent two-term governor, he is universally known in the state. This race, like Maine, would pull in hundreds of millions of dollars from out of state. Fortunately, North Carolina actually has enough television stations to absorb the money.
  

The other races are in safe states. Assuming no one retires, each of the other incumbents will be reelected, except it is possible that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) might draw a primary opponent from the right because the MAGAts deem him insufficiently Trumpy.

• Colorado: John Hickenlooper is a shoo-in for a second term.
• Delaware: Delaware is a very blue state and Chris Coons has a job for life.
• Illinois: Dick Durbin is 80. He might retire (see below).
• Massachusetts: While not as popular as Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey (D-MA) is safe.
• New Jersey: Cory Booker can stay in the Senate as long as he wants to.
• New Mexico: The Land of Enchantment is blue enough that Ben Ray Luján is safe.
• Oregon: Jeff Merkley is a popular progressive in a progressive state.
• Rhode Island: Jack Reed keeps a low profile and focuses on constituent service; his voters love that.
• Virginia: If Glenn Youngkin runs, then multimillionaire Mark Warner might sweat a bit; otherwise, no.

• Alabama: Tommy Tuberville was hit on the head one time too many playing football, but will still win.
• Arkansas: Tom Cotton would love to be president some day, but getting reelected will be easy.
• Idaho: Jim Risch won't even have to bother campaigning.
• Iowa: Joni Ernst prostrated herself before Trump and he will probably allow her to win.
• Kansas: It's been almost 100 years since Kansas sent a Democrat to the Senate, so Roger Marshall is safe.
• Louisiana: Assuming he is not primaried, Bill Cassidy is safe in red Louisiana.
• Mississippi: Like other Southern Republicans, Cindy Hyde-Smith need not even campaign.
• Nebraska: Pete Ricketts won a special election in 2024; he'll win again in 2026.
• Oklahoma: Markwayne Mullin originally won a special election; in 2026, he will win a regular election easily.
• South Carolina: Lindsey Graham is enough of a toady that Trump may avoid endorsing a primary challenger.
• South Dakota: Popular former governor Mike Rounds is an excellent match for his state.
• Tennessee: We doubt anyone will primary Bill Hagerty and there are no Democrats left in Tennessee.
• Texas: Unlike Ted Cruz, who everyone hates, John Cornyn is popular and will win with ease.
• West Virginia: If Joe Manchin jumps in, Shelley Moore-Capito might have to struggle, otherwise no.
• Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis is not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but she is Trumpy and the state is so red, she can't lose.

There is one footnote about Dick Durbin in Illinois. He is 80 and has been in public office for 44 years, including 29 years in the Senate. He doesn't have to worry about his retirement putting the seat in danger. Any half-way competent Democrat could win in blue Illinois. Durbin is getting a small nudge from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), who is openly endorsing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) for Durbin's job if the senator retires (hint, hint). Stratton is Black and doesn't have a national fundraising network, but Pritzker, the heir to the Hyatt Hotel chain, is a billionaire, and could easily toss in $50 million to jump-start her campaign. With Pritzker's endorsement and money, Stratton would be the odds-on favorite, even if former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel jumped in. An endorsement by former Illinois senator Barack Obama would likely be forthcoming as well. A Stratton win would establish Pritzker as a power broker in 2028, a role he would definitely enjoy.

So what's the bottom line? In the absence of any unknown unknowns, the worst practical-case scenario for the Democrats is that Kemp jumps into the Georgia race, Ayotte jumps into the New Hampshire race, both win, and the Republicans end up controlling the Senate 55-45. A better scenario for the Democrats is that Kemp and Ayotte stay out, and with the aid of $300 million in out-of-state money, Mills flips Maine and Cooper flips North Carolina, resulting in a 51-49 Republican-controlled Senate. The best case scenario for the Democrats is that Trump and Musk wreck the country and the economy, inflation and unemployment are both 10%, all of the above happens, and in addition, Tester beats Daines in Montana and Brown beats Husted in Ohio, leading to a Democratic-controlled Senate 51-49. Flipping four Senate seats would take a gigantic blue wave, but it is not impossible. The incumbent parties lost 6, 6, and 9 Senate seats respectively in the 2006, 2010, and 2014 midterms. (V)