Dem 47
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GOP 53
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An Early Look at the 2026 Senate Races

The Hill has a far-too-early rundown of the 35 Senate races. Of these, 33 are regular elections. Florida and Ohio have special elections resulting from the now-filled vacancies left behind by Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, respectively. Here is the lay of Senateland. You can always find the state of the Senate races by clicking on "Senate Candidates" just above Maine (in the blue bar above the map). We update this regularly when there is relevant news.

Open Seats Held by Democrats
Open Seat Held by a Republican
Vulnerable Democrat
Vulnerable Republicans

The other races are in safe states. Assuming no one retires, each of the other incumbents will be reelected, except it is possible that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) might draw a primary opponent from the right because the MAGAts deem him insufficiently Trumpy.

Safe Democratic Seats
Safe Republican Seats

There is one footnote about Dick Durbin in Illinois. He is 80 and has been in public office for 44 years, including 29 years in the Senate. He doesn't have to worry about his retirement putting the seat in danger. Any half-way competent Democrat could win in blue Illinois. Durbin is getting a small nudge from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), who is openly endorsing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) for Durbin's job if the senator retires (hint, hint). Stratton is Black and doesn't have a national fundraising network, but Pritzker, the heir to the Hyatt Hotel chain, is a billionaire, and could easily toss in $50 million to jump-start her campaign. With Pritzker's endorsement and money, Stratton would be the odds-on favorite, even if former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel jumped in. An endorsement by former Illinois senator Barack Obama would likely be forthcoming as well. A Stratton win would establish Pritzker as a power broker in 2028, a role he would definitely enjoy.

So what's the bottom line? In the absence of any unknown unknowns, the worst practical-case scenario for the Democrats is that Kemp jumps into the Georgia race, Ayotte jumps into the New Hampshire race, both win, and the Republicans end up controlling the Senate 55-45. A better scenario for the Democrats is that Kemp and Ayotte stay out, and with the aid of $300 million in out-of-state money, Mills flips Maine and Cooper flips North Carolina, resulting in a 51-49 Republican-controlled Senate. The best case scenario for the Democrats is that Trump and Musk wreck the country and the economy, inflation and unemployment are both 10%, all of the above happens, and in addition, Tester beats Daines in Montana and Brown beats Husted in Ohio, leading to a Democratic-controlled Senate 51-49. Flipping four Senate seats would take a gigantic blue wave, but it is not impossible. The incumbent parties lost 6, 6, and 9 Senate seats respectively in the 2006, 2010, and 2014 midterms. (V)



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