Dem
47
GOP
53
Most up-and-coming politicians would give their eye teeth for being in a state with an open Senate seat and an open race for the governor's mansion. Pete Buttigieg is in that situation and has said: "No thanks." He will not run for either office. Part of it is that he is new to the state. He is not a carpetbagger in the sense that he moved from Indiana to Michigan to run for something. It is just that his husband's family lives there, so the move was organic.
But another part is that he is almost certain to run for president in 2028 and he doesn't want to run two different campaigns in the space of 2 years. If he weren't gay, the 43-year-old could run as the second coming of Jack Kennedy, but he is, which complicates his situation enormously. While a gay president is probably a bridge too far for many Americans, a gay vice president might not be, especially if the presidential candidate were young and vigorous. Of course, you can't run for vice president, but if you run for president and make a strong showing, you will be on the winner's radar, especially if you are very careful to run a positive campaign and not ding the other candidates too much.
In his nonannouncement, Buttigieg attacked Donald Trump for making America less free, less secure, less democratic, and less prosperous. Expect him to travel around the country making speeches and attracting attention for the next couple of years. He will surely campaign for the Democratic nominees for senator and governor from his new home state. He is an excellent speaker. If you have never heard him, here is his address to the Democratic National Convention last August:
If Buttigieg runs for president, he will have a couple of serious problems. First, he won't even be the favorite to win his home state. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) is expected to also run and she is much better known than he is. She would undoubtedly also be happy getting the #2 slot if the #1 slot is a man. Also, a white woman could probably count on votes from many women who want to see a female president in their lifetime. A gay man might get votes from gay people who have a similar dream, but realistically, more than half the electorate (especially the Democratic electorate) consists of women, so Whitmer simply has a bigger built-in base.
Second, in Buttigieg's 2020 run for president, although he raised an impressive $80 million, he did spectacularly poorly with Black voters, who form a sizable chunk of Democratic primary voters. Whitmer does not have that problem at all. A full 94% of Black voters in Michigan voted for her for governor in 2022. It's hard to get more enthusiasm than that. If the Democrats get their druthers—and that is by no means certain—and South Carolina votes first and Buttigieg comes in ninth or something like that, that will put a big dent in his campaign. His best state might well be almost-entirely white and quite libertarian New Hampshire, but Democrats want to de-emphasize the Granite State. He is smart enough to understand all this, so expect him to try to cozy up to Black voters going forward. It will be interesting to see if it works. (V)